ChrisWeigant.com

Claiming Credit

[ Posted Monday, January 5th, 2015 – 16:59 UTC ]

President Obama is doing the preparatory work for his upcoming State Of The Union speech this week, by visiting three states to tout his successes and also to build support for the proposals he's likely to make in the big speech. This is all standard politics, really. But Democrats should really join in a loud chorus right now to help Obama achieve the first of those goals -- claiming credit for turning the American economy around. This is important for two reasons. The first is that Democrats (and Obama), up until now, have been too timid to claim much of any credit for the economy, out of fears that it could take a turn for the worse and they'd end up looking like Pollyannas (Obama already got his fingers burnt on this previously, with the supposed summer of "green shoots," quite a while back). The second reason it behooves Democrats to claim some credit right now is that if they don't, Republicans are already chomping at the bit to claim all that credit for themselves.

On a certain level, this is all very cynical politics. But even professional economists can't ever manage to agree on what the real relationship is between the business cycle and the things politicians do. It's a very complex subject, with lots and lots of opinions and very little actual scientific facts ("X definitively causes Y," for instance). This nebulosity is exploited by politicians, for better or for worse. For worse -- presidents and lesser politicians are always quick to lay blame for economic woes at the feet of their opponents. For better -- the public usually gives credit for a good economy to whomever is sitting in the Oval Office, whether it is truly fair to do so or not. As I said, it's an opinionated subject even among those professionally trained to spot trends. I count myself as largely an agnostic in the debate, because I think politics probably plays less of a role in the economic business cycle than either party is ever willing to admit.

But that doesn't mean I don't think that politicians should claim credit for economic good times. If the partisan control were switched, the other side would assuredly do it, so why not? If economic times were bad, the other side would certainly use it as a political club to beat on Democrats. Which all means Obama and the Democrats really should be out there tooting their own horns on the issue, no matter how deserved it may truly be (as previously mentioned, you can call this incredibly cynical of me, if you wish).

President Obama was sworn into office six years ago this month. He inherited an economy in free fall. It didn't bottom out until well into the first year of his term. But since that time, things have gotten measurably better. It may not have happened fast enough for some, and the economic pickup still hasn't reached everyone. But things have gotten better -- that is now an unarguable fact.

When Obama took office, we were losing an astounding 750,000-plus jobs every month. That's three-quarters of a million jobs every four or five weeks. Last month, we added over 300,000 jobs in a single month, and this Friday the unemployment numbers will be released for December. If they are as positive as November's numbers, it will usher in a much more optimistic future in the political world. America added more jobs in 2014 than it has in over a decade (look for this to be a big bragging point for Obama, soon). The unemployment rate hit a maximum of 10.0 percent during 2009, and is now at 5.8 percent (which may even go down further, this Friday). When Mitt Romney ran for president in 2012, he promised to get unemployment below 6.0 percent -- by the end of his first term. Barack Obama achieved that in less than two years' time.

The stock market is higher than it has ever been. It has grown in value by more than 100 percent since it hit rock bottom. Gas prices are nearing (or below) two bucks a gallon at the pump. That right there is an enormous boost to tens of millions of paychecks, because it is such an immediate boost to the money in people's pockets. America is now the largest producer of oil in the world -- we have passed even Saudi Arabia. That is going to change the geopolitical map in huge ways, some of which can't even be foreseen at this point. But, getting back to the pocketbooks of the American public, it's hard to overstate the importance of cheap gas on the way people see their own economic lives. This is also reflected in consumer confidence, which (by one measure) is now more positive than negative -- the first time that's happened since the Great Recession began. Obamacare continues to prove all the big Republican scaremongering talking points wrong -- its implementation (now in its second year) did not crash the economy and did not cause a massive loss of jobs. Last year was the best year for job addition in quite some time, meaning Republicans were just flat-out wrong in all their doom-and-gloom predictions.

The light at the end of the tunnel for the economy is no mere bright dot seen far off in the distance. It's right in front of us, in fact. It is imperative that President Obama and the Democrats point this out right now. Sure, everyone's not back on their feet. Sure, there are still plenty of economic measures that haven't reached a full recovery. But look for Obama to be introducing programs that begin to address such lingering problems as wage stagnation and income inequality. They may not go anywhere in the new Congress, but they'll certainly help Democrats build their case in 2016. For the time being, Democrats need to point out that they're turning over an economy that is doing very well -- better than at any time in the past six years -- to a new Republican Congress. They need to lay this down as a benchmark they can later point to, no matter what happens.

If the economy continues to improve and actually starts booming, Democrats will have already taken credit for fixing the Great Recession. If there's a downturn, then Democrats can make the case that the congressional Republicans screwed up a good thing. It might not help, because as I mentioned, presidents tend to get most of the blame for bad times. But it's certainly worth pointing out that things were humming along at the start of the Republican Congress, when the subject is later debated on the campaign trail.

Republicans are itching to claim all this credit for themselves. They're already floating the line "the economy picked up in anticipation of Republicans running Congress," even though it ignores the previous four or five years. This masterful spin job could actually work -- Republicans are almost never shy about claiming credit for themselves (earned or unearned) for good things that happen. Democrats need to take a page from the Republican playbook, but the window is fast closing on the opportunity to do so.

President Obama has certainly been re-energized since the midterms. He has come out swinging. He will likely continue to do so this week in his appearances (he's going to begin in Detroit, reminding everyone that he saved the American auto industry), all the way up to the night of the big speech. Democrats should back him up, in every interview and appearance they do this month. Democrats should stop being so scared of their own shadows when it comes to claiming some credit for good news. Things are getting better. Things have been slowly getting better for a long time, and now they're getting better at a much faster rate. If things had gone badly, both Obama and the Democrats would now be getting a bargeload of blame, that is for certain. Since things are going better than that, Democrats need to claim some credit before the Republicans try to grab it all for themselves.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Cross-posted at The Huffington Post

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

7 Comments on “Claiming Credit”

  1. [1] 
    Speak2 wrote:

    W: Thanks for the previous reply. Much obliged. And thanks for getting my missing comment into [3] on the previous post.

    Michale:
    The GOP did not "roll over" after consecutive Dem romps in '06 and '08, despite the fact that what Dems did in '08 and '09 (health care, stimulus, Wall Street reform) were actually the issues they ran on. They didn't hide that behind spinelessness such as "I'll tell you what I'll cut after I win the election" or any other such [expletive deleted] nonsense. They ran on those things and did them (though not as well as they should have) and the GOP opposed it every step of the way.
    Saying Obama wasn't heeding the will of the voters in '14 by moving forward with his own agenda, despite having won soundly in '12 and not getting GOP support afterwards is really nothing more than whining. Put your big boy pants on. This is politics, not beanball.

    My actual comment on this post:
    I could not understand Dems this cycle. In competetive races, they did more to put an arm's length between themselves and the "toxic" prez than anything else. Yes, Obama is toxic to those who would not vote for him, his policies, or his supporters anyway (black man in the WH; damned liberal, hippie, homo, commie, [expetive deleted] freaks]. He has astounding support among those likely to support him, demographically. The Dems challenge in a midterm is getting their base out. How, exactly, is a white person in the south going to get the "Obamo-coalition" to the polls while keeping the prez at a distance? Truly, a strategy for morons who deserved to lose elections (Gore-like, in fact).

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    But Democrats should really join in a loud chorus right now to help Obama achieve the first of those goals -- claiming credit for turning the American economy around

    Yea, cuz Obama did SOOO much for Democrats during the mid-terms, eh?? :D

    I know, I know... It's smart politics for Democrats to jump on the "EVERYTHING IS AWESOME"... But, as shocked as it is for me to say it, politicians ARE human beings...

    When they get screwed over, they tend to get pissy... It's human nature.. :D

    Overall, I hear what you are saying in this commentary..

    Things ARE measurably better by quite a few measurements...

    Except one.. Except the most important measurement..

    The feelings of Joe and Jane Sixpack..

    Do THEY feel their lives are better....

    No they do not...

    THAT is the only measurement that counts in American politics...

    Politicians can crow about this stat and that stat until the cows come home...

    But if middle class Americans have to go home and choose between paying the mortgage and paying the electric bill, they are just going to shake their heads sadly when they hear politicians go on and on about how awesome the economy is...

    "Dats da fact, Jack!!!!"
    -Bill Murray, STRIPES

    Another point..

    It's your claim that the economy is doing pretty awesome... And it has done so even with the Republicans being so obstructionist...

    So, logically speaking, maybe we need MORE Republican obstructionism to make the economy go even better!! :D

    One final point...

    The biggest and most obvious boon to growing economy has been the huge freefall drop in oil prices... This huge boon has been caused in no small part by the US's domestic oil production.. America's Fossil Fuel program has made the US economy better and has strengthened US National Security...

    How can the Left reconcile that fact with the Left's environmental and anti-fossil fuel stance??

    Michale

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    Saying Obama wasn't heeding the will of the voters in '14 by moving forward with his own agenda, despite having won soundly in '12 and not getting GOP support afterwards is really nothing more than whining. Put your big boy pants on. This is politics, not beanball.

    It's not whining, it's logic...

    First off, Obama and the Democrats did not win "soundly" in 2012... They barely scrapped by...

    Compare and contrast that to the nuclear shellacking of 2014... Not only at the Federal level but at the state and local levels as well..

    The GOP won seats in California...

    The GOP won the Governor-ships in the blue of the blue Maryland AND the BLUEST of the Blue in Illinois..

    Only one possible explanation fits the facts..

    The American people are sick and tired of Democrats running roughshod over Republicans AND the American people, pushing their OWN agenda over the will of the people..

    With only a couple exceptions, the will of the American people is paramount..

    ANY politician elected to office should put, sans the couple exceptions noted, the will of the people BEFORE their Party Agenda..

    Would you agree with those statements??

    Assuming yes, then how can the actions of Obama, post nuclear shellacking, be reconciled with the accuracy of the afore statements??

    Americans care about the economy first and foremost.. Americans care about Immigration around 10%....

    It all comes down to the will of the people.. Obama and the Democrats have ignored the will of the people for 6 years.. And some Democrats are even beginning to see it..

    Chuck Schumer's recent speech says it loud and clear...

    If you believe that the will of the American people is sacrosanct then you simply HAVE to believe that Obama is taking the absolutely WRONG approach...

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    They didn't hide that behind spinelessness such as "I'll tell you what I'll cut after I win the election" or any other such [expletive deleted] nonsense

    Pelosi's "We have to pass the legislation to know what's in it" or Greg Ormand's "I'll tell you who I will caucus after I win the election" notwithstanding.... :D

    They ran on those things and did them (though not as well as they should have) and the GOP opposed it every step of the way.

    Just like Democrats opposed Bush every step of the way.. It's what the Minority Party does... It's their function..

    Getting mad at the Minority Party for being obstructionist is like getting mad at the sun for rising in the east and setting in the west..

    "Water is wet, sky is blue, women have secrets"
    -Bruce Willis, THE LAST BOY SCOUT

    Water is wet... Sky is blue... Minority Party obstructs..

    The only beef here that I can identify is that Republicans obstruct more effectively than Democrats...

    Tell ya what.. Let's revisit the OBSTRUCTIONIST issue again this time next year. Let's see if the label still applies to Republicans.. Or if it has magically transferred to Obama and the Democrats..

    I'll lay 10K quatloos that it will be Obama and the Democrats who are "obstructionist".... :D

    Michale

  5. [5] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    "Democrats need to claim some credit before the Republicans try to grab it all for themselves."

    . . . but look at that shiny object!

    The Republicans will keep StormFront Scalise and use him to distract the Democrats from their economic messaging. The GOP has branded themselves as The White Power Party, so there's no downside to keeping him.

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Republicans will keep StormFront Scalise and use him to distract the Democrats from their economic messaging.

    {{cough}} Reverend Jeremiah Wright{{cough}} {{cough}}

    'nuff said...

    Glad ta see yer still around, JFC... Was getting worried... :D

    Michale

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Republicans will keep StormFront Scalise and use him to distract the Democrats from their economic messaging.

    Besides I think Democrats are going to have PLENTY of distractions of their own without ANY help from Republicans...

    The husband of the presumptive Democrat POTUS candidate being caught with his pants down with underage girls, for example...

    Michale

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