ChrisWeigant.com

Jeb Bush's Pros And Cons

[ Posted Monday, December 15th, 2014 – 18:05 UTC ]

The 2014 midterms are over. The lame-duck Congress is wrapping things up and preparing to flee Washington. The holiday season is in the air. So, naturally, it is now time to turn our attention to the 2016 presidential contest.

I know, I know -- it's still way too early for this stuff. We have over a year before the first primary will be held, and then almost another full year until the general election happens. Nonetheless, over the weekend a flurry of speculation broke out over Jeb Bush's possible candidacy. Bush made some moves which strongly indicate he may indeed become the third Bush to make a run for the presidency.

If Jeb does run, he may face Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side. Now, a "Clinton versus Bush" contest doesn't exactly thrill many people who are looking for perhaps a little more variety (and a little less dynasty) in our presidential choices, but it is indeed worth contemplating at this point, at least if Jeb is serious about running.

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are both somewhat tame and moderate politicians, more driven by political consultants and polls than by any burning personal ideology. Both are familiar with the concept of "triangulation" in politics. To put this another way, we might wind up with a 2016 race of "the bland leading the bland." Still, it's hard to see either one of them not instantly becoming the frontrunner in their respective parties' fields, just on name recognition alone. How good a candidate will either prove to be? It's worth taking a look at the pros and cons each will bring to the race, in an early look at what their campaigns will likely have to overcome. Today, I'll be weighing Bush's pros and cons, and later in the week we'll do the same for Hillary Clinton.

 

Jeb Bush's positives

The biggest positive Bush will bring to the table is a whole lot of money. The big Republican donors have made no secret of the fact that they're looking for a reasonable candidate and not a firebrand. The "electability factor" drives much of this money (who wants to bet millions on a losing candidate?). Bush could lock up the biggest donors fairly early, and squeeze out any other moderates (from the Establishment Republican wing of the party) from even deciding to run.

As a Republican candidate, the biggest positive Bush has is his family. No, not his father or his brother or even his mother -- his more immediate family. Bush's voice within the Republican Party on the subject of immigration is pretty unique, because he married a Mexican woman (mother of his three children) and speaks fluent Spanish. That, right there, could earn him millions of votes that other Republicans could never even hope to get. There are two prominent Latino Republicans who will also likely run, but both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz aren't exactly seen as prominent voices for the Latino community. Both Rubio and Cruz are of Cuban descent, which (due to Cubans' unique and favored immigration status) doesn't carry a whole lot of weight with Latinos outside of Florida. This is before even touching upon their political positions. Bush actually lives up to his father's concept of "compassionate conservatism" when it comes to immigration (he married a foreigner who became an immigrant, so this is no surprise), while Cruz and Rubio are fighting to stake out the harshest position possible on the issue. Rubio tried being somewhat reasonable on immigration in the Senate, but when he heard the outcry from the base, he quickly denounced his own immigration bill and decided to take a more absolutist position. Cruz and Rubio, to put it another way, aren't going to manage much in the way of Latino outreach in 2016, but Jeb Bush certainly could.

Bush presents himself as more of a "sunny optimist" than many Republicans these days. While the memory of Ronald Reagan has reached epic proportions among today's Republican Party, what most of them ignore in their sanctification of Reagan was how cheerful he always appeared. It's pretty hard to see many of the other possible 2016 Republican candidates as "cheerful" (with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee, who can indeed be cheerful when he tries). Bush might be able to offer a much more positive version of conservatism to voters than other possible Republican candidates, most of whom appear downright angry to one degree or another.

The final big positive in Jeb's column is where he hails from. Jeb was governor of Florida -- a state which will be absolutely crucial to any Republican's chance of winning the general election. Barack Obama won Florida twice, and would have won even if Florida had gone Republican. On the Republican side, however, it is almost impossible to reasonably put together 270 votes in the Electoral College without Florida's 29 electors. Republicans may have more than one make-or-break state in 2016, but Florida will likely be the biggest. Bush would have a clear and obvious advantage in the Sunshine State -- an advantage only Marco Rubio could also possibly claim. Indeed, this may be Jeb's most convincing selling point to Republican voters at large.

 

Jeb Bush's negatives

Bush is already aware of the tightrope he's going to have to attempt to walk if he runs. He was recently quoted saying that a winning Republican candidate would have to be willing to "lose the primary to win the general election." To some, this seemed ridiculous (since how can a candidate even make it to the general if he loses all the primaries?). Many in the media reported it as Bush saying a candidate would "need" to lose the primaries, but what he accurately said was a candidate would have to be willing to lose a primary to win the general election. That's a nuance that makes a lot of sense when you think about it. Republican candidates, to paraphrase Jeb, have to be willing to take a stand on something that the base in every single primary might not agree with, rather than pandering to the most rabid primary voter everywhere. To use another political metaphor, Bush is saying he won't be tacking too far to the right in the primaries, so that in the general he won't have to tack too far back to the center.

What he's really doing is preparing the ground for the expected backlash against his compassionate position on immigration. He cannot suddenly renounce his wife, after all. He cannot even attempt to outflank people like Ted Cruz on the right on immigration. Because he knows this, he's softening people up now for how he's going to run, most likely. Immigration is not even the only issue where Bush has a stance that is not going to be appreciated by the far right. He's said nice things about undocumented immigrants and he's also a fan of federal testing standards for education (for example), which is not very popular among the Republican base. So he's going to have to stand on a debate stage at some point and defend several positions against attacks from pretty much all the other Republican candidates. He'll be running on his authenticity instead: "This is my position, I think it's right, and I'm not going to change it to pander to the voters of Iowa (or any other state)." But if he does lose primary after primary as a result of these unpopular stances with the base, then he'll never make it to the general election.

Jeb faces a further problem with the base, because whether he uses the word or not a large part of his candidacy is going to be based upon his electability. In early polling, he is the only Republican -- out of a very wide field -- who would have any real chance against Hillary Clinton in the general election. This could always change, but it will be Bush's strongest argument: "Nominate me, and have a chance at the Oval Office, or nominate some purist who will lose spectacularly." The only problem with this argument is its history within the Republican Party. Mitt Romney was supposed to be the electable one, and to a certain degree the same charge could be made against John McCain. The base is fed up with what they perceive as candidates who are insufficiently conservative, because they've been burned by that argument at least twice before (some even go back as far as Bob Dole, on that list). Primary voters may be more inclined to elect a fire-breathing candidate this time around, even if he goes down to a Goldwater-esque defeat in the general election. Maybe not, though -- the Tea Party rage seems to have died down somewhat, so it's impossible to tell at this point.

One minor negative for Bush is that he's been out of politics for quite awhile. He hasn't been a candidate since 2002, and the Republican Party (especially the Republican Party outside of Florida) has shifted considerably rightward since then. It remains to be seen whether he'll be rusty as a candidate, but he'll likely have enough money to see him through any early stumbles, so this probably won't be an issue by the time the primary season really heats up.

Jeb's biggest negative, however, is something it would be impossible for him to change: his last name. The country doesn't exactly have fond memories of either his father's presidency or his brother's. I seriously doubt you'd see George W. Bush stumping for his brother out on the hustings, to put this another way. Call it "Bush fatigue" -- many will be asking "isn't there another family out there worth electing?" throughout the whole election. But, like I said, there's nothing Jeb can do about this factor. He might already have to legally change his name to appear on the ballot as "Jeb Bush" (his full name is actually John Ellis Bush -- "JEB" is a nickname from his initials, not his first name), but I can't really see him changing his last name at the same time.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Cross-posted at The Huffington Post

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

18 Comments on “Jeb Bush's Pros And Cons”

  1. [1] 
    Michale wrote:

    I am torn on Jeb Bush for POTUS...

    On the plus side, the entire Bush clan has honesty, integrity and love of country up the wazzooo...

    On the negative side, his stance on immigration (while obviously understandable) is not good for the country.. His unwillingness to put Americans before illegals is a real strike against him..

    In a match up between Hillary and Jeb, Jeb is the obvious best choice for the country..

    But, that doesn't say very much, considering...

    Michale
    226

  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    If Jeb had run instead of his brother in 2000 I think he would have done a much better job. Beyond that, I'd still rather have Hillary than either Bush, or Obama for that matter.

  3. [3] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Luckily for the war criminal Cheney and his lawless gang of torture thugs, Emperor Obama's administration has exercised it's prosecutorial discretion and let them slide.

    I wonder if Jeb would do the same, like a tyrant.

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    Luckily for the war criminal Cheney and his lawless gang of torture thugs, Emperor Obama's administration has exercised it's prosecutorial discretion and let them slide.

    Are you kidding??

    Cheney is EXACTLY the kind of wartime leader this country needed..

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/12/15/dick-cheneys-critics-and-moral-clarity-in-wartime-torture-terrorism/

    Much like FDR in WWII...

    Like I told Bashi in the previous commentary..

    You don't fight a war with unicorns and rainbows...

    Michale
    230

  5. [5] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    You don't fight a war with unicorns and rainbows...

    You also don't fight a war with iraq when the folks who attacked you are 1400 miles away on the other side of asia. Don't get me wrong, democrats (including one senator clinton) were fully complicit in that epic blunder, but the buck does have to stop somewhere.

    Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia"
    Vizzini - The Princess Bride

  6. [6] 
    akadjian wrote:

    I hope Jeb decides to run. It would bring back all the splendid memories of W.

    It's a good thing corporations own the media because they're gonna need it to sell us on another Bush.

    -David

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    JL,

    You also don't fight a war with iraq when the folks who attacked you are 1400 miles away on the other side of asia.

    The same reasoning could be applied to Germany and Japan, eh??

    Don't get me wrong, democrats (including one senator clinton) were fully complicit in that epic blunder,

    Fine... Steal my thunder! :D

    but the buck does have to stop somewhere.

    As long as where it stops is not based on partisan considerations, I am fine with that.. :D

    Michale
    231

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    I hope Jeb decides to run. It would bring back all the splendid memories of W.

    I hope Hillary decides to run. It would bring back all the splendid memories of Bubba and Lewinsky and Jones and Broderick etc etc etc...

    And WhiteWater and Vince Foster and Travel Office..

    And Benghazi and Russian Reset and sniper's in Bosnia and leaving the White House "dead broke" and Goldman Sachs..

    Let's face it.. Hillary has skeleton's in her closet that have skeletons in THEIR closets...

    If you want to match honor and integrity between Hillary and Jeb, Hillary will lose and lose by a wide margin..

    The ads practically write themselves..

    WHO WOULD YOU TRUST??

    Michale
    232

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    and Russian Reset

    I mean, picture the scene from the Russian's perspective...

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is handed a button by SecState Clinton that says "OVERCHARGED" and he is told that by pushing this make-believe button, the US and Russia will magically become the best of friends..

    Lavrov must have walked away from the session shaking his head and thinking "These Americans are frakin' morons!!"

    Michale
    233

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    JL,

    You also don't fight a war with iraq when the folks who attacked you are 1400 miles away on the other side of asia.

    The same reasoning could be applied to Germany and Japan, eh??

    Scratch that.. I misread your comment..

    The reasoning to attack Iraq was minimally about those who attacked us.. The main reasoning was that it appeared Hussein was developing NWMDs to compliment his CWMDs...

    Which is valid reasoning, not mitigated at all by the fact that it was in error...

    It could just as easily have gone the other way... And then the Hysterical Left would be screaming at Bush, "WHY DIDN'T YOU STOP THIS??!!!!!"

    Michale
    235

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    Well, Democrats can kiss Florida goodbye in 2016...

    Michale
    237

  12. [12] 
    Bleyd wrote:

    Jeb Bush strikes me as something of a throwback to the days when I was more of a supporter of the Republicans. He seems to be more statesman than politician, if that makes sense. To put it another way, much more HW than W. I doubt I'd vote for him over Hillary (though 23 months is a lot of time to change my mind), but at the very least I doubt I'd be pissed off if he got elected (again though, 23 months is a plenty of time for that to change).

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    To put it another way, much more HW than W. I doubt I'd vote for him over Hillary

    Why???

    With Hillary's ties to Wall Street and all the headaches that Bubba in the White House will entail, why vote for Hillary???

    Michale
    243

  14. [14] 
    TheStig wrote:

    JEB's biggest downside at the moment seems, to me, to be his stump style. Very rusty, very boring in early outings. This can change with coaching...and Hillary has had some problems getting in gear too. Having a bad interview with Terry Gross is hard achieve, although Jean Simmons of Kiss managed to pull that feat off too.

    A bigger problem is how he makes a living. It's basically Romney Lite. Jeb has access to people with money, Romney has much more actual money. That's an advantage in mobilization. Romney was rejected once, that's usually enough in politics. Does the public hanker for Romney Lite? Do Republicans hanker for Romney Lite?

    It's too early to take any of this too seriously.

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney was rejected once, that's usually enough in politics.

    {{cough}}Hillary Clinton {{{cough}}} {cough}

    :D

    Michale
    274

  16. [16] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Indeed!

  17. [17] 
    TheStig wrote:

    M (15)

    I didn't mean to exclude Hillary from the rejection rule! There is unease among the Democrats about how she strategized the 08 primaries and her post State stump skills. As a mass communicator, she is no Bill. The rise of Warren shows the level of unease.

    Politics is fickle and both Romney and Clinton carry the whiff of past failure. The hazards of being too close to big money were illustrated by an awkward Romney. Romney had to fight his centerist past in 08 primaries, Bush has acknowledged he'll have to do the same in '16. Running a Romney near-clone in '16 is tainted by association with the results of '12.

    The Rule isn't absolute (Nixon for example) and it's still very early.

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    Politics is fickle and both Romney and Clinton carry the whiff of past failure.

    What do you think about Obama and his "new car smell" statement??

    Obama just being Obama??

    Or a calculated statement to undermine Hillary???

    Michale
    285

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