Every election season in American politics, speculation begins in late summer what the other side's "October Surprise" is going to be. What event will happen, what subject will be brought up during the final phase of the campaign, one month before everyone votes? Well, this year Democrats don't need to wonder any more. Because the Republicans have basically announced in advance what they hope to ride into office this year: provincial elections in Iraq.

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Barack Obama gave a speech on race yesterday. He pretty much had to, as the media pressure on him to do so was becoming overwhelming to his campaign. The media had already successfully pressured one candidate (Mitt Romney) to give a speech on his religion (since he is Mormon), and after the comments of his pastor were plastered on the news for days, Obama needed to address the issue. Which, from almost all accounts, he successfully did. But even if he had given the Sermon on the Mount on the issue, and even if every black and white American immediately got over their racial antipathy toward each other tomorrow, this should be seen as only the opening conversation in what could be a long discussion.

To his credit, Barack Obama did deliver a great speech on how he walks the minefield of race and racial politics in American life. As Jon Stewart said, he talked to Americans as if "they were adults." That alone is pretty rare in any campaign. But whether this speech is going to change anyone's mind in the voting booth remains to be seen. My guess is that Obama will gain a certain degree of respect from a wide swath of the American public on the issue, but it probably won't change many minds, one way or the other. Because how we see race in this country is pretty deeply ingrained. Which is the whole problem Barack's speech addressed, from the black and white side of the coin.

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Barack Obama gave a speech today about race.

It's getting rave reviews, so it must have been a real humdinger of a speech. But I have not had a chance to actually see his speech yet, so I'm going to refrain from commenting on the larger issues the speech addressed, for today. I apologize for the delay. I also apologize, because this is going to be a short column.

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On this week's Chris Matthews Show, Richard Stengel of Time magazine made a prediction in the "Tell me something I don't know" segment of the program:

John Edwards. Senator John Edwards--remember him?--who's been conspicuously silent since he dropped out of the race, will endorse a Democratic candidate probably before North Carolina, certainly before North Carolina, possible before Pennsylvania. And our own Mark Halpern [sic] on the page [sic] says it's going to be Senator Hillary Clinton.

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As Robert Anton Wilson pointed out (or William S. Burroughs, if you prefer), hexagram 23 of the I Ching is "breaking apart." Anyone who subscribes to his "23 enigma" theory will note that this is the twenty-third installment of this column. If you throw hexagram 23, the I Ching cautions: "the roof is shattered, the house collapses." I leave you, dear reader, to draw your own conclusions as to how this relates to Democratic politics for this particular week.

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Just a short roundup today of some wiretapping news items... as always, in the three-dot style of the late great Herb Caen...

...The New York Times has a piece this week on exactly why letting the government powers that stretch the Fourth Amendment beyond recognition is always a bad idea -- because what is introduced as "emergency, extraordinary" powers always devolves in the blink of an eye into just a standard tool for law enforcement (to use for whatever reason they see fit). National Security Letters (or, in the original Louis XVI French, lettres de cachet) are an outright insult to the Constitution and should be stopped. I'm still waiting for a hard promise from either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama that this practice will end, on Day One. Or for that matter, a speech in the Senate right now from either of them. They're running to be leader of our country, so how about showing some leadership when it counts?

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"Hello. My name is Chris W., and I'm a primaryholic."

That's how I would introduce myself if there was a twelve-step program for political junkies. Because we have now entered the long Spring of our discontent -- six weeks with nothing on the Democratic primary calendar before Pennsylvania votes on April 22.

Six weeks! I mean, really... six weeks?!? Who thought up this crazy system?

I (and many others like me) have become so addicted to watching primary returns come in that six weeks seems an eternity. Primaries, caucuses, even Texas two-step primacaucuses -- it was all good. But now, a stark seemingly-endless month-and-a-half before political addicts can get another "fix" of that sweet endorphin rush that comes from watching the numbers mount on election night? I don't think I can take it....

As Bob Dylan said when he defined the term for junkies of all types: "Something is happening here but you don't know what it is... do you, Mr. Jones?" But Bob, that's exactly the point -- nothing is happening here! And I'm not the only one out here seriously jonesing for another vote.

OK, I've got to take a deep breath. Ahhh, that's better.

No, dammit, it isn't. The doldrums of those six weeks still stretch out to the dim future of late next month, on the calendar page before me.

Sigh.

For all of you out there snickering gleefully at my distress and offering me meaningless platitudes such as "it's really not all that long," I say no, thanks. Think about this to grasp what this stretch of time means -- six weeks ago, Super Tuesday hadn't even happened yet. The score was tied at: Clinton 2 (New Hampshire and Nevada); Obama 2 (Iowa and South Carolina). The race was wide open. Heck, there were even other candidates still in the race! That was only six weeks ago. See what I mean? An eternity!

The problem with the race now is that even after six weeks of ups and downs on the primary rollercoaster, it's still fairly wide open. And there are a shrinking number of contests which remain. Eight states (Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota) still have yet to vote, as do Guam and Puerto Rico.

Hey, wait a minute....

There's still the problem of what to do about Michigan and Florida! Oh, salvation!! A quick look at the calendar shows exactly when they should schedule their re-vote: March 25, and April 8. That would space them and Pennsylvania a comfortable two weeks apart. And at this point, I'm desperate, so either can go first, and they can use any method they wish to count votes (mail-in, firehouse primary, caucus, regular primary -- at this point I'm easy).

Please, Michigan and Florida, break up this political six-week desert with a few oases. I'm counting on you to feed my jones....

Please?

-- Chris Weigant

We begin not with Eliot Spitzer, but with a small history lesson. From the Civil War, two otherwise unremarkable Union Generals (militarily, both are known for their spectacular defeats) who obviously detested each other: Ambrose Burnside and Joseph "Fighting Joe" Hooker. Here is Burnside on Hooker, who served under him: "unfit to hold an important commission during a crisis like the present." Here is Hooker, on Burnside: "[a] wretch... of blundering sacrifice."

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Clinton/Obama 08?  Or Obama/Clinton 08?

The argument for the so-called "Dream Ticket" isn't a new one, but for the first time one of the campaigns is actually talking about it. Hillary Clinton, of late, has been hinting that it'd be OK with her if both her name and Barack Obama's are on the ballot this fall. Of course, out of the two possible arrangements of these names, it's probably a safe bet as to which Senator Clinton would prefer to be on top.

Senator Obama, so far, has been keeping the idea at arm's length. He has demurred from commenting on it, except to say that it's way too early to start thinking about. And that he (of course) would also prefer not to be the vice presidential candidate.

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A quick primary pick here, before we get on to the awards and the talking points.

Wyoming will be holding its Democratic caucus tomorrow. This one is pretty easy, since the Clinton campaign has already all but conceded the race to Barack Obama. There is no polling easily available, but I'm going to take a wild stab at it and say that Obama will win the Wyoming caucus.

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