This week's word is going to be "insurmountable." Look for it coming from the lips and pens of pundits everywhere in the next week. Because while mainstream media journalists are obviously trying to portray this race as a lot closer than it really is (better ratings that way), if Obama can just hold on to the leads he has right now -- not improve them in any way, just hold them -- then Election Day viewing parties nationwide may be over before anyone's even finished their first beer.

Remember, the East Coast returns come in first. And it's going to be all but impossible to continue the "we're in a dead heat" nonsense if Barack Obama decisively wins Florida and Virginia.

Because, at that point, Senator Barack Obama will become "President-Elect" Barack Obama.

And, at this point, Obama winning Florida and Virginia looks like a definite possibility. Actually, you could add in Ohio and say "if Obama wins any two of these, he'll win." Or even, if you really trust all the other poll numbers, "if Obama wins any one of these, he's got it in the bag."

Which (as I pointed out) will lead to a very short Election Night.

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I've been saying for a while now that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki holds the upper hand in the game of "chicken" he's playing with George Bush over negotiating a Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA) for American troops to legally stay in Iraq past the first of next year. Now it appears both sides are pretty close to admitting that there will be no agreement, and that they had better start talking about some sort of short-term arrangement, which would allow whoever America's next president is to take over the negotiating table.

Maliki, through all of this, has proved to be nobody's fool. He knows what is going on politically in America, and pretty much everything that has happened this year has strengthened his bargaining position. George Bush's approval ratings are now officially worse than Nixon's ever were. His disapproval rating is the highest ever recorded. And the U.S. election is three weeks away.

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The nomination of Sarah Palin for the Republican vice-presidential ticket has brought a lot of media attention to the Alaskan political scene. But while Palin's record and past deeds are being combed over by all and sundry, there are plenty of other scandals worth looking into up in the Last Frontier State. For instance, there is the case of Senator Ted Stevens. And I mean "case" quite literally, since Stevens is currently running for re-election -- while simultaneously defending himself against corruption charges in a federal court case. Whenever the verdict in the Stevens case comes in, it will doubtlessly cause another flurry of media attention northwards.

For those interested in the backstory of the octopus-like reach of the VECO corruption investigation, there is currently no better inside look at the entire mess than the amazing new book Last Bridge To Nowhere, by author Frank Prewitt. Prewitt has a unique perspective on the entire mess, since he was the F.B.I.'s "Confidential Source #1" throughout the evidence-gathering phase of the long-running investigation. Codenamed "Patient," Prewitt spent countless hours documenting sleazy deals, payoffs, bribes, and other shenanigans; often wearing a wire and taping encounters to provide court evidence.

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While we're all waiting for someone to leak the Palin Troopergate Report (which is reminiscent of waiting for "Fitzmas" during the whole Scooter Libby fiasco), let us take a brief look at the presidential race.

Things are getting pretty nasty out on the McCain campaign trail, it seems. Not much talk of "reaching across the aisle" these days. Now, while anyone with a halfway-decent brain saw this coming, this obviously doesn't include most of the mainstream media. Of course the end of the campaign was going to be nasty. Of course McCain and his minions were going to throw everything they could at Obama. Barack Obama himself knew this was coming. Democrats should have known it was coming. It's the old story of the scorpion and the frog -- McCain is getting nasty because he's a Republican candidate for president. "I'm a Republican, it's my nature," in other words.

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Two stories from the "power corrupts" department appeared this week, one on the state level and one on the federal level. Both just go to show, once again, that whenever sweeping surveillance powers are granted to those in authority the end result is almost always the same -- widespread abuse of such power to go after anyone the government takes a dislike to, rather than the "terrorists" who are the supposed targets of the law.

The first comes from the state of Maryland. It seems they decided that anyone voicing any opinion not in support of the government was a terrorist. From the Washington Post article (titled "Maryland Police Put Activists' Names On Terror Lists"):

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I have to admit, that's a pretty provocative title. And enumerating the poultry before they emerge from the ova is always risky... as the saying goes. But it's hard to look at this week's polls without the word "landslide" appearing in your forebrain.

Now, there is no hard-and-fast rule as to what constitutes an electoral "landslide." Some put the number of electoral votes (for the winner) as low as 300, others as high as 375 or even 400. I'm going to arbitrarily (for the purposes of this and future columns) peg an official "landslide" at 340. Mostly because at 340, the number for the loser slips below 200 -- a psychological barrier. Using 350 might be better, since that guarantees a spread of at least 150 between winner and loser, but I'm going to go with 340.

And right now, 340 or more looks like a serious possibility for Barack Obama on Election Day. There's just no getting around it when you look at the numbers.

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Tonight's loser in the debate was... the media spin.

Both candidates had the same pre-debate tactics, and both attempted exactly the same thing. They both tried to "psyche out" their opponent by warning how hard they were going to fight. It didn't work for either of them. Neither one of them really took the bait, and the entire debate was a snoozefest compared to what it was billed as.

But aside from that, the debate itself was notable only for how the candidates walked all over Tom Brokaw's flashing lights. They both realized early on that Brokaw was just not going to penalize either of them for going over their time limit, and so they basically ignored him for most of the debate. He even tried to plead at one point "Gentlemen, you may not have noticed, but we have flashing lights around here" (all quotes are taken not from transcripts, but from hastily-jotted notes, I should point out, all transcription errors are mine). Brokaw actually had the funniest line of the night as well, when the candidates went to shake hands with each other at the end of the debate, and Brokaw had to tell them to get out of the way of his TelePrompTer.

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The Washington Bullets basketball team (now the Wizards) won a spectacular national championship in 1978. This was a big deal in Washington, since the town hadn't had a major sports championship since the Redskins won one in 1942. But there were two amusing footnotes to their victory worth mentioning here. The first is that this was the origin of the now-familiar sports phrase: "The opera ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Although most remember it as being a quote from the Bullets' coach Dick Motta, it was actually said very early on in a qualifying round by a reporter for the rival San Antonio Spurs, Dan Cook. The first time Motta was quoted (after Cook had already said it), it was reported Motta said: "It's not over... It's like an opera. It doesn't end until the fat lady starts singing and that hasn't happened in this one yet." He later reverted to Cook's original (and tighter) phrasing, and it was heard all over the place throughout the rest of the postseason, right up until the Bullets won it all in Game 7 of the finals.

I offer this as a cautionary tale to people who now think Obama's so far out in front in the polls that his only real worry should be what color drapes to use in the Oval Office. The earlier, and simpler, form of the metaphor springs to mind (from the immortal Yogi Berra): "The game isn't over 'til it's over."

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The weirdest moment in last night's vice presidential debate (at least for me) happened before the debate officially had even begun. Not realizing their mikes were being picked up by the networks, Sarah Palin (while shaking Joe Biden's hand) asked him "Can I call you Joe?"

Now, in normal life, this is a petty innocuous question. It's a bit of politeness, asking someone if you can refer to them informally, by using just their first name. But this isn't normal life, this is a debate viewed by millions, between two people who not only have full names, but also titles (Senator, Governor). Knowing that Palin only asked this because she had some zinger up her sleeve, I was waiting for it all night, until (near the end) Palin finally pulled it out -- "Say it ain't so, Joe!" Whew. That was less "zingy" than I had expected... and she followed it up by trying to be Reaganesque: "there you go again pointing backwards again," which (to my ears) fell pretty flat indeed.

So, in keeping with the spirit of the debate, I ask Senator Joe Biden, "Can I call you Joe?" Because I'm going to be typing his name a lot today.

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The honeymoon Sarah Palin has been enjoying with American voters -- ever since John McCain's surprise announcement that he was putting her on the Republican ticket -- is now officially over. And I'm writing this before tonight's vice presidential debate, I should note.

It cannot be denied that her nomination as vice presidential running mate to John McCain certainly had an effect on the race. It shook the race up. And for a short period, it looked like an absolutely brilliant and stunning political gamble by McCain to inject some much-needed vitality into his campaign. McCain's poll numbers rose, while Obama's fell. Palin herself enjoyed high approval numbers in the polls. She gave a rousing speech at the Republican Convention, and a lot of Democrats got very worried indeed.

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