Today is a numerically interesting day (being 11/12/13), but other than county clerks being inundated with folks wanting to get married today (one imagines cries of: "Honey, let's get married today, and I promise I'll never forget our anniversary!") it has no impact on national politics in any way. Neither does all the rampant speculation on the 2016 presidential race currently taking place among the punditocracy, but the difference is we're all supposed to pretend it does. So here goes -- my entry into rampant speculation about the 2016 race, and in particular what Chris Christie's chances are.

The proper response to such prognostication, at this point, is really: "It's way too early!" This is because it is, in fact, too early to predict much of anything that will be happening in 2016. It is, to borrow a favored phrase of Steve Jobs, insanely early for such speculation.

Continue Reading »

Today's holiday originally celebrated the end of "the war to end all wars," when the 1918 armistice took place on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. No World War I veterans still remain alive, and the holiday has grown to honor all America's veterans of more-recent wars -- so much so that many forget the origins of the holiday itself (which used to be "Armistice Day").

Next week, however, is an even more poignant anniversary: the sesquicentennial of Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, certainly the most well-known speech in American history. Only 275 words long, Lincoln spoke for mere minutes, following a lengthy two-hour oration given by Edward Everett. But today, only scholars remember Everett's name, and few historians bother to read the text of his remarks. Lincoln's words are still memorized by schoolchildren, even to this day.

Continue Reading »

Half a year ago, we decided it was time to coin a new political term. We did so in these pages, as a matter of fact, in our "Friday Talking Points [257]" column. But while the concept is indeed now being noticed more and more by others, our neologism doesn't seem to be catching on nearly as well. So we'll repeat the definition we gave it, back in May (once again helpfully pointing anyone who is not aware of the literal, non-political definition of "wedgie" to ask your local sixth-grader to explain and demonstrate, if necessary):

Wedgie: When a political party's "wedge" issue turns on them and instead of dividing the other party, begins to divide their own.

Usage: "Boy, the Republicans are really getting a giant wedgie on immigration, aren't they?"

This week, that example would have read: "Boy, the Republicans are really getting a giant wedgie on gay rights, aren't they?"

Continue Reading »

We haven't done one of these guest columns in a while, and (much to my embarrassment) this really should have run weeks ago (when it was written, in the midst of shutdown and debt ceiling fever). I really have no excuse for the delay, and ask that you blame me rather than the author for it not being more timely, as the fault is all mine.

Professor Kenneth Janda is no stranger to these pages, as we've interviewed him previously, back in the 2008 presidential primary season. Janda is the Payson S. Wild Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Northwestern University. He's written an article that is both informative and amusing, and (sadly) while it was more relevant a few weeks ago, it will also become relevant again the next time we all do this insane dance (currently scheduled for early February). So, please enjoy, as you put yourself in the mindframe of three or four weeks ago. Or three months from now, take your choice.

-- Chris Weigant

A Martian Views Our Debt Ceiling Crisis

Welcome to our planet. Sorry that your saucer landed in the U.S. during our messy debt ceiling crisis. I'm happy to answer the questions it prompted you to ask. First: "Is America exceptional among Earth countries in how it funds government?" Yes, the United States operates very differently from most countries that we call democracies. Except for little Denmark, no other democracy has a "debt ceiling." Indeed, no other industrialized country on Earth limits how much the government can borrow and owe.

Continue Reading »

Yesterday, the citizens of five counties in eastern Colorado voted to "pursue becoming the 51st state." While seceding was on the ballot in a total of eleven counties, six wound up voting the notion down. But Washington, Phillips, Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties all approved the measure. The chances of East Colorado becoming a new state are pretty slim, but maybe there's another answer to their pleas for autonomy.

East Colorado (or whatever they decide to call it) is just not very likely to become the 51st star on the flag, no matter what the voters in those five counties think. In order for a state to be formed in this fashion, it would require not just a positive vote from those living in the affected area, but also the approval of the Colorado state government -- giving them permission to leave, to put it plainly. And then there's an even higher hurdle: the U.S. Congress would have to vote to approve the plan as well.

Even assuming that Colorado allowed the counties to leave, it would be an almost impossible sell to the rest of the country. You might think other states would shrug and say "fine with us" if East Colorado wants to become a state. You would be wrong. Because of one simple political fact: states get two senators. If it were an easy process, what would stop (for instance) Texas from splitting into five states? Or ten? A better example is the District of Columbia. Washington, D.C. has been pushing for statehood for decades, now. They have not succeeded.

Continue Reading »

Some surprising good news

Welcome back to our monthly look at how President Obama's doing in the job approval polling. It is election day today, but it's a fairly minor one, and I already did a write-up on the three major races yesterday, so check it out if you're sitting around waiting for returns to come in.

While Obama hit an all-time low in one recent poll which made a few headlines this week, he's actually not had that bad a month, relatively. In fact, his monthly average job approval number rose for only the second time in his second term. Obama had good news and bad news battling it out this month, and his polling reflected this tension. But the news for Obama in October was a lot better than you might think.

First, let's take a look at the chart with October's numbers added in.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

October, 2013

Continue Reading »

Tomorrow, some of the country will vote on various things and people. Immediately thereafter, pundits will begin reading too much into "what it all means," especially in relation to the 2014 and 2016 elections. I'm personally going to remain rather skeptical, though. Because I don't think there really are any true trends which can be read into these contests, which are all local and somewhat personality-driven. Especially this year.

Tomorrow's balloting is not just an "off-year" election, it is in fact an "off-off-year." That is to say, it's an odd year (in more ways that one, I suppose) and congressional elections only happen in even years. Next year will be Obama's second midterm congressional election, but we should all reflect that a whale of a lot can happen in one year in politics. Which brings me to the conclusion that whatever we're going to be talking about exactly one year from today is likely not being talked about at all, right now. That's politics -- things change quickly, and a year is a very long time.

What others will be saying as the returns come in tomorrow is as predictable as the big three races themselves. There will be victorious conclusions drawn by left and center. The hard right is going to have to stretch to declare any sort of victory, but they're probably up to this fantastical task, if history is any sort of guide. The big three races are for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, and the mayoral contest in New York City. Let's take a quick look at these races, and the conclusions which will almost inevitably be drawn by many.

Continue Reading »

Although it's been a week heavy on Obamacare, we're going to (mostly) look forward this week, to the upcoming budget battles. Because buried in the Obamacare stories this week was one very important bit of news which few outside the Beltway even noticed. Which is a shame, because if used correctly it could signal a shift in the conversation in those budget meetings.

To put this another way, while most focused on one broken promise from President Obama this week, he actually made good on an earlier promise -- which is nothing short of astounding and deserves a lot of attention.

Continue Reading »

It's that time of year again folks (it's actually even one day early!), so gather 'round for two spine-chilling tales of horror to rattle your bones and shiver your timbers!

In fact, if you read this right now, we will double your fright with a full four nightmares evenly divided, left and right! That's right, I said four frightful tales!

Well, two of them are so short I could probably have tweeted them, I have to admit. Because in the depths of Obamacare website death, it's pretty easy to use that as a springboard to spin terrifying yarns, when you stop and think about it. So we've got two Obamacare-specific tales which are very short indeed, and then two non-Obamacare scenarios to make both Democrats and Republicans run screaming into the night.

So sit back, break into the bags of candy a night early, turn down all the lights and fire up the pumpkins, because we've got the short and long of both Democratic and Republican nightmares for your terrified pleasure. Enjoy!

Continue Reading »

Since it's Hallowe'en week, we thought it'd be worth taking a look back at the nightmares we dreamed up last year. Also, we're busy carving pumpkins for tomorrow's column (we're planning our annual frightfest one day early this year, so it'll run on Huffington Post as well as here). Obviously, none of last year's predictions were 100 percent on the mark, although there are certainly some aspects of all of them which have now come true. In any case, read and enjoy, and check back tomorrow for this year's horrific tales (and, of course, Jack-o-lanterns...).

Originally published October 31, 2012 (right before the election)

It's that time of year again, so gather 'round, kiddies, for our spine-tingling and bone-chilling tales of political horror!

This Hallowe'en, we've got not only two frightful nightmares to recount, but actually three, so that absolutely nobody will feel left out. Yes, horrific futures await not only for Democrats and Republicans, but one at the end for everybody to run from, shrieking in terror all the while!

As always, our spooky stories are accompanied by hand-carved Jack-o-lanterns (so that I can write off "pumpkin purchase" on my taxes). That first one's supposed to be a baseball mitt (get it... Mitt?), but admittedly wasn't my best effort. The second one's supposed to be red, too. The third one came out OK, I thought... but I digress.

To get back into the frightful spirit, let's turn off the lights, and everyone make a circle and turn on your flashlights and point them at your chins (for the proper spooky atmosphere), and we'll begin with our skeleton-rattling, chain-dragging tales of fearful futures...

Continue Reading »