Today seems like a good day to write an optimistic column. I was inspired to do so by reading a different optimistic column, in today's New York Times (to give full credit for my outburst of rosy-tinted cheerfulness). The article, by Jonathan Alter, is titled: "What If Democrats Win The White House And Congress On Tuesday?" It does begin by admitting that this all may be a "pipe dream," but it lays out what Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress (with control of both houses) might be able to accomplish.

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With one week left until Election Day, a trend seems to have emerged. Unfortunately for Democrats, this trend seems to be favoring Donald Trump, although not in what you'd call an overwhelming way. It may be more the cumulative effect of a number of battleground states just barely edging over to Trump simultaneously. But it is the first trend of any kind in quite a while, so it bears mentioning.

This election may be decided by a last minute movement towards one candidate or the other by those voters still undecided or persuadable. What is odd is that this column examines data from the past week, but the momentum may currently be in the midst of a big shift in the other direction. It all depends on whether the fallout from Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally manifests itself in a real shift in voting or not. Right now -- today -- the energy and momentum seem to be with Kamala Harris, while Trump is playing defense. How much of this is media perception versus actual on-the-ground reality with voters is yet to be seen, however.

It's still a very open race, to put all of this another way. But when you look at the raw numbers from the past week, Trump seems to be enjoying a slight advantage. This is pretty obvious in our first chart.

This chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.

Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. The white areas in between show states that are perfectly Tied.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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The 2024 presidential campaign has been an unusual one in a number of respects. The candidates from both major political parties got their nominations in rather odd ways, and while the outcome is going to be close, the winner will set some sort of political precedent in modern American politics for the way this campaign has unfolded.

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The Washington Post secured its entry into the annals of American political history by taking down a United States president. Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein famously uncovered the entire Watergate scandal, which caused Richard Nixon to resign in disgrace. Award-winning books and movies about the brave reporters followed, portraying them as giants in the world of journalism.

Ah... those were the days, eh?

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Kamala Harris was asked in an interview recently whether, if she became president, she would be open to the idea of pardoning Donald Trump. She dodged the question as a "hypothetical," and the interviewer moved on. Today Donald Trump indicated that he'd be open to pardoning Hunter Biden, which isn't exactly the same thing but seemed to be Trump trying to put forward the idea that a pardon would be a good idea, and that the alternative would be "very bad for our country."

Right now, of course, it is an academic question. Neither Harris nor Trump has won the election yet, so it's all hypothetical and contingent on them becoming the next president. But it is a question worth considering, since America has never had the experience of a former president tried in federal court for actions he took as president.

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We begin today with a few definitions, from Merriam-Webster:

fasces
a bundle of rods and among them an ax with projecting blade borne before ancient Roman magistrates as a badge of authority

fascism
(1) a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition
(2) a tendency toward or actual exercise of strong autocratic or dictatorial control

surprise
(1) an attack made without warning
(2) something that surprises
(3) the feeling caused by something unexpected or unusual

October surprise
[US politics] a significant revelation or event in the month prior to an election that has the potential to shift public opinion about an election candidate and that is often orchestrated to influence the election's outcome

That's what the dictionary says.

Today the political world is in a tizzy as Democrats from Kamala Harris on down have latched on to a recent New York Times article in which Donald Trump's longest-serving White House chief of staff, retired four-star Marine General John F. Kelly, stated that he believed Donald Trump fit the definition of a fascist. Here's how he defined the term fascism: "It's a far-right authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy." That's pretty close to that dictionary definition, you've got to admit.

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Last week, we called the presidential race "as close as things can get." This week we have to up that to "even closer than close," we suppose. As things stand, there are two states perfectly tied in the polls, which leaves neither candidate with enough to win the Electoral College outright without adding at least one of them.

At this point, it's hard to say if anything that is happening in the polls is truly all that meaningful. All of the changes that have been happening have been states wobbling around on razors' edges, between favoring one candidate by a point or two to being perfectly tied to favoring the other by a point or two. All seven of the battleground states are essentially doing this, so the shifts are really just the margin of error between the different pollsters, for the most part. Neither candidate has managed to secure a definitive edge in any of them. No clear trends have appeared anywhere.

With two weeks to go before Election Day, it's anyone's guess what is going to happen. Things could go either way. Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could sweep all (or almost all) of the battleground states, or they could divvy them up between them. The result in the Electoral College might wind up being one of the closest elections in American history, or one candidate could wind up with over 300 votes. It's really anyone's guess.

Let's take a look at this week's charts, although I will admit that they really don't tell us much, other than "it's really close."

The first chart shows the state-by-state polling added up for both candidates. As always, data is provided by the Electoral-Vote.com site, which tracks current polling in every state. Each state's Electoral College votes are added into the totals for both candidates, to see who has enough states to win.

Donald Trump is represented in red, from the top of the chart downwards. Kamala Harris is in blue, from the bottom up. Whichever color crosses the center 50-percent line should (if all the polling is perfectly accurate) emerge as the winner. But as mentioned, the white areas show states that are Tied, and (just like last week) this week that's where the action was.

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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Two weeks from tomorrow is Election Day. To be followed by Election Night, when we all gather 'round our screens and watch the returns come in and wait for the experts to call each of the states for one candidate or the other. But remember last time? This time might turn out the same -- instead of just one night of stress, we may all have to live through "Election Week," as the final votes are counted.

Four years ago, I heard a friend-of-a-friend anecdote about a small child who complained that Mommy and Daddy were hogging the television in order to endlessly watch the most boring show imaginable -- which the kid called: "The Map Show." All I'm saying is we might be in for season two of The Map Show this time around.

What with focusing on the actual election, what many are losing sight of (and I definitely include myself in that) is that Election Day isn't going to be the end of the stress, it could easily become just the beginning of a whole new phase of stress. That could all kick off with us all waiting on a handful of states to finish counting every single vote. Pennsylvania certainly springs to mind, as does Arizona and Georgia. Wisconsin and Michigan could also take a while, who knows?

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Since we are less than three weeks away from the election, we are going to diverge from our normal Friday Talking Points format today.

Instead of brief talking points at the end, instead we tried to make the case against electing Donald Trump in the most effective ways we could think up. But when we got done, we realized that this extended rant also served as a good round-up of the week's political news. Sure, there were a few other things going on in politics, but at this point we are so focused on the campaign and the election that anything else is really just a distraction, this close to Election Day.

We did manage to hand out our weekly awards, for two campaign videos that appeared this week, but we're going to whip through those pretty quickly in order to get on with the main event this week.

We apologize for the foreshortened introduction this week, but as we said we're finding it hard to focus on anything outside the realm of the presidential race.

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Election Day is still over two weeks away, so this might seem a little premature, but I thought I'd write today about the key races I will be watching as the night of November 5th unfolds. Because while the main event will be the presidential election, as we saw last time around these things can drag on for not just hours but days, and in the meantime there are plenty of other races worth paying attention to.

Since the Earth spins the way it does, the night of the election will be a staggered event, starting on the East Coast and moving slowly westward. How fast all the races will be called will depend on a number of variables -- when the polls close in each state, how fast they count votes, and how close the races are, just to name the biggest ones.

So what follows is a rough timeline of the races I will be watching, as it all unfolds on the evening of Election Day.

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