[ Posted Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 18:28 UTC ]
In the same week that Time magazine gave its "Person Of The Year" award to the #MeToo movement, three members of Congress resigned because of it. The last week anything similar happened, according to historians, was during the Civil War, over the issue of slavery. On a single day in January of 1861, five senators resigned (as their states seceded from the Union). One historian noted: "If you look over the history of the 20th century in Congress, there just is no comparable event."
John Conyers Jr., Al Franken, and Trent Franks all announced their resignations this week -- two Democrats and one Republican. There are several others under pressure to resign on both sides of the aisle as well, so this may only be the beginning and not the end of the trend.
Politically, so far, the Democrats are in the winning position of taking the moral high road. Democrats, on the whole, have reacted to these scandals by drumming the offenders out. Republicans don't have much of a moral leg to stand on, and are left with weak complaints that the Democrats didn't act fast enough. However, they are hamstrung both by Donald Trump being in the Oval Office and by the special election race in Alabama, where they truly are proving they want to win no matter what the political cost. And now they've even been denied the "whataboutism" argument.
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[ Posted Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 18:03 UTC ]
Today was a sad day for progressives, as Al Franken took to the floor of the Senate to announce he will be stepping down from his seat due to the multiple allegations of sexual misconduct which have been made against him. Franken was seen by many as one of the best newcomers to politics in the past decade, an intelligent and unrelenting voice strongly supporting a very progressive agenda. So his loss is felt more deeply than some other random Democratic senator (who was a lot less well-known) would have been. Franken was even being talked about as a possible presidential contender in 2020, but that now seems like an impossibility. However, even before the news broke yesterday that Franken was on the brink of resigning, I've been wondering about a larger argument being made -- that of whether the voters aren't the ultimate jury for such allegations against politicians. Which, today, brings me to the question of whether Al Franken might just redeem himself politically by running for the seat he will soon be vacating when it comes up again for election, in 2020.
At first glance, that seems pretty far-fetched, and it may seem overly partisan of me to even suggest such a thing. I'll address these in reverse order, since what made me consider the idea of what role the voters play in the outcome of these scandals is the upcoming Senate special election in Alabama, the election of Donald Trump, and even the original election of Bill Clinton back in 1992. So my thought processes haven't been as partisan as might originally be assumed.
At the heart of it is a very basic question: how much do scandals matter to the voters? Sometimes they matter a lot, and sometimes they don't. Whenever any supporter of Donald Trump is faced with the question of the accusations of Trump's sexual misconduct, they usually reply with some version of: "Well, the voters knew all about it, and he won anyway -- so it's not even worth discussing now." The voters have spoken, in other words, so who are we to second-guess their judgment?
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[ Posted Wednesday, December 6th, 2017 – 18:11 UTC ]
Republicans like to boast about how their current plan to reform the tax code is the biggest such effort since the 1980s. They especially like this line because it references Saint Ronald of Reagan [pause for GOP genuflections], whose irreproachable sanctity is about all the Republican Party can even agree upon, these days. But back in Reagan's day, Congress spent something like two years developing their tax code overhaul, with at least six months of that spent in committee hearings and bipartisan work toward a common goal. That common goal was to reduce taxes on individuals and increase them on corporations. None of that is true this time around, of course, as Republicans only even have a prayer of passing anything these days (despite controlling both houses of Congress) by rushing things so hastily that nobody has a chance to talk about what is in the massive bill. That two-year process will be smushed into a few paltry weeks, with a self-imposed Christmas deadline. Also, the end goal this time is exactly the opposite -- massively reduce the taxes corporations pay by increasing the share individuals pay.
All of this means that the American public has much less time to process what is happening, which is by design (of course). Republicans know that the longer people have to examine their tax plan, the more the public will learn about what it actually does. And, so far, the more the public learns about it the more they hate it. Overwhelming majorities see the GOP tax "reform" as nothing short of redistribution upwards -- which screws over the middle class (once again) in order to provide lavish goodies for those at the top of the income scale, and Wall Street. Since this is the actual bedrock upon which the GOP tax bill was constructed, it is impossible to hide its inherent nature for very long.
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[ Posted Tuesday, December 5th, 2017 – 17:59 UTC ]
In one week, Alabama is going to shock the nation in one way or another. Either they will elect an accused child molester to the United States Senate, or they will elect a Democrat. Either one is pretty jaw-dropping to consider, in this day and age. The polls are as tight as can be, with several recent ones showing Republican Roy Moore up by a few points, and others that show Democrat Doug Jones up by a few points. In other words, it is all going to come down to turnout.
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[ Posted Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 20:02 UTC ]
It's been a tough year all around, but it is finally almost over. That's about the best thing you can say about 2017, really. So for this year's ChrisWeigant.com holiday pledge drive, we're going to inundate you with an absolute blizzard of kittens, in our annual subliminal plea to break out the wallets and give generously to keep the site going throughout next year.
From the very start, 2017 has been an endless parade of shiny, shiny objects which only prove repeatedly how easily distracted the media gets, which is why we are rededicating ourselves to ignoring the fluff and concentrating on what's really going on.

The shiny, shiny objects are so distracting!
Doing so, of course, involves slogging down a very tough path. At times, it can even feel like things are piling up so fast that we'll soon be in over our heads. But you've got to dig in and push through it all in the end so the situation doesn't become totally overwhelming.

Ever get that sinking feeling? Push through it!
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[ Posted Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 19:35 UTC ]
This morning, Donald Trump's first National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, pled guilty to charges of lying to the F.B.I. He is now the highest-ranking Trump aide to be targeted by Robert Mueller, and also the highest-ranking person to have flipped on Trump. Flynn is still at risk of being prosecuted for other charges as well, including lying about his foreign lobbying on government forms. But he's now apparently cut a deal with the prosecution to possibly avoid further charges and also reportedly to avoid charges for his son.
The main assumption, however, is that he is now singing like a little birdie to the investigators. Trump (as of this writing) has yet to respond on Twitter, which likely won't be pretty when it does happen. Already, news reports surfaced this week of Trump's increasingly unhinged behavior, including (astonishingly) trying to tell people the infamous Billy Bush Access Hollywood tape wasn't actually his voice. But there was one interesting bit about the "is Trump losing it?" story, as it relates to the entire Mueller investigation:
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[ Posted Thursday, November 30th, 2017 – 18:58 UTC ]
Sorry, but there will be no new column today, as I had to take time to deal with jury duty. The good news, however, is that I was not selected and thus will be able to write a Friday Talking Points column tomorrow. So there's that to look forward to.
If I had had the time to write today, there's an interesting article over at fivethirtyeight.com that would have formed the basis of what I would have written. Long story short, the current GOP tax cut bill is not only less popular with the public than all previous tax cut bills (going back to the 1980s), but actually less popular than two tax hikes. That is a stunning level of unpopularity, and should put to the test the Republican thinking that all they have to do is pass a tax cut (any tax cut) and their base voters will reward them next year at the ballot box. Again, that's what I would have written about if I had had the time.
So my apologies again for the lack of new column today, and I'll see you all back here tomorrow.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
[ Posted Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 18:22 UTC ]
In December, the members of the Democrats' "Unity Reform Commission" will make their recommendations to the Democratic Party for changes in the way it handles presidential elections (among other things). Then it will be up to the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee to decide whether to fully or partially adopt any of these recommendations. This is a big deal for Democrats, as it is the culmination of the effort to bridge the still-raw divide between the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and the Hillary Clinton establishment wing. Nobody at this point knows exactly what the unity group is going to propose, but there's one festering issue which will likely take center stage: superdelegate reform. The answer to this problem, though, seems pretty obvious to an outside observer. There's one way to solve it which would seem to appeal to all concerned.
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[ Posted Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 17:35 UTC ]
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are apparently ready to play hardball at the start of the negotiations to work out a year-end deal with Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress. They signaled their intentions today by snubbing a planned photo op at the White House in response to a rather nasty tweet the president sent out about them, hours before the meeting was supposed to begin. Why negotiate when Trump is already calling them names, after all?
How much any of this means to the overall chances of cutting some sort of deal remains to be seen. But it does send a strong signal that Trump will face consequences for his Twitter habit, which up until now has not yet happened. So perhaps Trump will realize that he's got to tone it down if he really is interested in cutting a deal with the Democrats. Or perhaps not. Perhaps he'll double down on the nasty tweets instead -- with Trump, this certainly remains a possibility.
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[ Posted Monday, November 27th, 2017 – 19:01 UTC ]
Two weeks from tomorrow, Alabama will hold its special Senate election. The chances of Democrat Doug Jones pulling off an upset win are really anyone's guess, at this point. Is Roy Moore so damaged that the very conservative voters of Alabama will reject him in favor of a Democrat? Stranger things have happened, but this is in no way assured. This is, after all, Alabama we're talking about. But Democrats should be looking ahead, whether Jones wins or not, to shape their strategy for the upcoming 2018 midterm congressional elections.
The Alabama race is really a one-off fluke, no matter who wins. By this I mean that no real lessons will be able to be drawn about the state of the nation's electorate, one way or the other. Even if Jones surprises everyone and wins, the situation isn't all that likely to repeat itself next November in many other parts of the country. The only real lesson Republicans will learn, should Moore lose, is perhaps to spend a bit more time vetting the candidates. But that only goes so far -- Moore, after all, did win his primary even though President Donald Trump actually endorsed his well-vetted GOP rival. If Steve Bannon truly does try to flood all the Republican primaries next year with his favored candidates, a few more might win nominations even while carrying some rather heavy baggage. But that, at this point, cannot be counted on by Democrats.
I've spent a little bit of time examining the breakdowns of the polling from the recent Virginia election, which not only gave the Democratic gubernatorial candidate almost twice the margin of victory that Hillary Clinton won the year before, but also swept into office a resounding number of Democratic state legislators. It was a mini-wave election, in one state -- one that Democrats are hoping to replicate next year in a lot of other states.
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