General Petraeus, the officer in charge of our military presence in Iraq, is scheduled to report to Congress in mid-September on how the surge is doing. After he does so, Democrats are going to find themselves holding a winning hand for ending the war in Iraq -- as more and more Republicans start voting with them. But how they play their cards is going to be important in determining exactly how the war should be ended, how fast it will happen, and how many troops will be left in Iraq.

Now, there are many ideas on how to end the war from the Democratic side, and in September the party is going to have to hammer out a strategy for how to proceed -- and they'll need both a detailed strategy for the military withdrawal, and also a legislative strategy for how exactly to go about enacting the end of the war.

Congressional vagaries and loopholes mean there are countless ways the Democrats could manage to end the war in September. There is simply no way to cover every contingency here, or even predict exactly which path such legislation could take. Having said that, there are several tactics which are currently being discussed among Democratic leaders. Here are the major options as I see them now:

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The magic numbers of Republicans jumping ship to watch for: 60 to 70 in the House -- 17 or 18 in the Senate. When Democrats hit both those numbers, the end of the war in Iraq will have truly begun.

John Boehner can call it: "dramatic erosion of support in the GOP," if he likes. I personally prefer the term: "rats leaving the sinking ship of Bush's Iraq fiasco."

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Bill Richardson:
Here's my strategy -- 3,500 Americans have died. Our troops have become targets. My specific strategy is this: If I were president today, I would withdraw all our forces before the end of this calendar year. But where I differentiate with the other candidates is I leave no residual forces. And my view is this: We cannot do the hard diplomatic work in Iraq until our forces are withdrawn. When 61 percent of the Iraqi people say it's OK for troops in Iraq, American troops, to be shot [it] is wrong. When 70 percent of the Iraqi people say they want Americans out -- Sunni and Shia -- by the end of the calendar year, the time has come to withdraw our forces. I would redeploy our troops to Kuwait, where we're needed, where we're asked to be, to deal with any international terrorism contingency. But it is my view, Chris, that any kind of rebuilding of America's foreign policy -- dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with nuclear proliferation, with international terrorism -- can only happen after we withdraw from this obsessive, disastrous policy in Iraq.

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My personal opinion is that (1) Bush isn't going to fire Gonzales, because he's terrified of trying to get a replacement through the Senate confirmation process, and therefore he's happy to have a broken and ineffectual Justice Department for the remainder of his term; and (2) I don't think he's going to pardon Libby. I think a respite or even a commutation might indeed be in the cards, but not an actual pardon. As I've stated before, I do think it's going to be an agonizing political calculation for the White House, though. I could be wrong, especially about that second one, but that's the way I see it.

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Meet The Press' Tim Russert appeared on Conan O'Brien's show a few days ago, and mentioned that he had been at Woodstock. Tim Russert? At Woodstock? There's a mind-numbing thought. He said he made some money selling Stegmeyer beer for 80 cents a six-pack, so I guess he was there to exercise free market capitalism. Or something.

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As I said before, no surprises there. When the Justice Department is given a tool usually reserved to absolute monarchs such as Louis XVI (see my earlier post about lettres de cachet and the similarities between the Bush administration and the regime that was deposed in the French Revolution), the chances are good that they're going to abuse it.

Remember, this is why we wrote our Constitution, to protect citizens from such abuse.

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President Bush really and truly wanted to exercise this option with Libby -- and he's still probably hoping mightily that the judge lets Scooter stay out of jail for another year and a half (while his appeal is being heard) -- so that Bush can pardon him after the 2008 election. But, unfortunately, the judge involved has gained the reputation of being a "long ball" judge (another baseball metaphor pops up!), consistently ruling "by the book," and thereby bucking the modern trend of letting white-collar criminals stay free on appeal. If all predictions are accurate and the judge orders Scooter to jail before the end of the summer, Bush is going to be forced to make this decision a lot more quickly than he would have liked.

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But my real question at this point is: will the chronic attention deficit disorder (also known as: having the attention span of a hummingbird) so prevalent in the mainstream media mean that they will accept four candidates in the "top tier" of Republicans, or will they drop someone to remain at three?

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I could see Bush, after being told flatly by Republican congressfolks that it was time to pull out, picking up the phone and telling Maliki that it was time for the Iraqi government to ask us to leave. This would give enormous political cover for Bush and the Republicans, and would provide a convenient scapegoat in case the pullout created a bigger disaster: "Hey, they told us to leave, what were we supposed to do?"

But one way or another, in the September/October timeframe, I foresee the end of the Iraq war being written into law by Congress. And that's a real and honest reason for optimism now. We may be at the lowest point of the process -- emotionally -- for the anti-war cause right now. But things are going to be looking up very soon now.

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This would, ironically enough, mean that the states at the back of the line suddenly become the crucial battleground states for the nomination. The only place left to get that "momentum" would be in the states which voted in the middle or at the end of the schedule. But even that's not assured. And if no candidate is the clear nominee by convention time, then we would have a real convention for a change. All the delegates' votes in the first round would go for the candidates they are pledged to vote for, but then in subsequent rounds of voting, we would have absolute pandemonium.

Now, let me be clear here -- I'm not making rash predictions that this is the way it'll turn out. Not yet, at least.

But wouldn't it be more fun to watch than four days of endless and meaningless speechifying?

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