The Bradley Effect v. The Obama Effect
Because if you really look at the polls, you'll soon notice that about a third of America just isn't paying all that much attention.
Because if you really look at the polls, you'll soon notice that about a third of America just isn't paying all that much attention.
But tomorrow night is not exactly a usual Friday night, as it will be the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. So will President Bush and the government of Iraq very quietly announce (while the party's going on in Beijing) that they have reached an agreement which sets a timeline for American combat troops to leave Iraq?
It's time once again to take a look at the Electoral College math from state-level polling. Nationwide polls are not completely meaningless, but they are pretty irrelevant -- because that's not how we elect a president. You have to win enough states to get more than half the electoral votes in the Electoral College. While many would like to change this system, it's what we've got for the 2008 election, and so looking at the state-level polling is much more important to figure out where the race is right now, and what the trends are.
Senator Barack Obama is currently facing a test in the presidential race. He's already successfully passed the Serious Test (talking to foreign leaders, appearing presidential), as well as the Oratory Test (he does know how to give a speech, that's for sure). But the next test voters are closely watching could be called the Feisty Test. Does Obama have what it takes to put some passion into parrying John McCain's Low Road Express? We will have the answer to that in the next few weeks.
The vice presidential guessing game has reached fever pitch, with many betting Barack Obama is going to make his pick known this week, before the Olympics start. But I'd like to suggest another appointment for Obama to announce, which he should do before he selects his running mate. Obama should announce that, if elected, he will offer the job of special envoy to the Middle East to former president Bill Clinton.
I have to say, I am slowly seeing signs of the media turning on John McCain. Now, so far, it's a fairly subtle thing -- they haven't started asking him any really tough questions on his policy, his history, or his record, for instance. But they have noticed the change in tone since the Karl Rove people have taken over McCain's campaign strategy. And it's turning them off. They are like Rip Van Winkle waking up from a years-long nap, blinking sleepily and confusedly while wondering "Who is this new John McCain? Where's the straight talker I went to sleep dreaming about?"
Republicans think they've discovered the way to beat Democrats in this year's election, with a strategy that can be summed up as: drilling for votes. Democrats, confident that logic is on their side in the oil drilling debate, may be ignoring this at their peril. It is too early to tell, of course, but the Democrats need to come up with a way to frame the debate to their advantage fast, or else they risk appearing as if they have no idea what to do about high gas prices.
Barack Obama made a campaign promise to visit the state of Alaska before the election. And what better time than right now to follow through on this promise? Obama should fly to Alaska the first chance his campaign schedule allows and make a speech at a rally with Mark Begich (and any other Democratic candidates for Alaskan office who care to join in). Begich is currently the Mayor of Anchorage, and is running to unseat the Republican Senator Ted Stevens. You may have heard Ted Stevens' name in the news recently. Which is why the time is now for Obama to make the trip.
Sixty years ago, on July 26, 1948, President Harry S Truman singlehandedly desegregated the United States military.
Be careful what you wish for, John.