[ Posted Thursday, February 4th, 2016 – 18:08 UTC ]
The Republican field is (finally!) now officially down to single digits. With the post-Iowa exodus of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum, only nine GOP candidates remain. Of course, this still includes more than one who will never be the nominee, but at least the winnowing has begun in earnest. The question on everyone's mind now is how many of them will be viable after New Hampshire votes. This election cycle, most pundits speak of the Republican race in terms of "lanes." There is an "outsider lane" and an "establishment lane," and so forth. I personally don't favor this metaphor, as I'm more inclined to use what might be called the traditional "Willy Wonka golden ticket" metaphor. In other words, there are a limited number of "tickets" out of New Hampshire, and anyone who doesn't hold one after the voting is over might as well just pack up their campaign.
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[ Posted Wednesday, February 3rd, 2016 – 17:10 UTC ]
President Obama just had a very good month in the polls. Not spectacular, mind you, but still better than any month since January of 2015. Essentially, Obama regained the job approval polling ground he lost over the previous two or three months, and he is now positioned to continue improving in February as well. For the first time in a year, this movement is so noticeable it is easily visible on the big chart.
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[ Posted Monday, February 1st, 2016 – 17:08 UTC ]
The primary season officially gets underway tonight, as Iowa voters brave the winter weather and head to the caucuses. This will give political wonks some actual hard data to discuss, instead of just opinion polling and sheer speculation, so it's a big day on the political calendar for us. Because it's such an auspicious day, I'm going to make an honest attempt to pick the winners and almost-winners for both parties.
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[ Posted Friday, January 29th, 2016 – 17:59 UTC ]
That headline is a joke only bridge players will get, so our apologies to everyone else. It refers, of course, to last night's Republican presidential debate, which Donald Trump refused to participate in. But even with no Trump on the stage last night, he seems to have (once again) proved that political gravity simply doesn't apply to him. In fact, we have serious doubts that we'll see Trump at any future debates -- after all, if he can blow them off with impunity, why would he subject himself to them in the first place?
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[ Posted Thursday, January 28th, 2016 – 16:56 UTC ]
Donald Trump, whether he wins the Republican nomination or not (or the White House, for that matter), has certainly turned the world of American politics on its head this election cycle. Trump is the undisputed king of Teflon -- because absolutely nothing he says or does ever sticks to him. His campaign has been pronounced "dead" or "toast" so many times now (by the inside-the-Beltway set) that it's impossible to keep count. Each time, his poll numbers actually rise rather than suffer the predicted collapse. This time around, after the dust settles in the fracas over tonight's debate, Trump will likely once again emerge stronger. Which is exactly what the Republican Party hoped would happen (albeit to someone other than Trump, but even so...) during debate season.
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[ Posted Tuesday, January 26th, 2016 – 18:12 UTC ]
Every so often, I feel moved to write a column that is no more, really, than spiking a metaphorical football in the endzone. To put it a different way, sometimes I write my opinion about something political only to then be almost immediately vindicated by someone much further in-the-know than I ever could be. Today is one of those days, so if you're not interested in me indulging in a little gratuitous back-patting, then I'd suggest you stop reading this now.
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[ Posted Monday, January 25th, 2016 – 18:06 UTC ]
One week from today, the preliminary phase of the presidential campaign will finally be over and "primary season" will officially begin, as Iowans brave the cold weather to caucus for the candidates of their choice. For the remainder of February, the other three early-voting states will hold their contests, meaning next month will see the race sharpen for both Republicans and Democrats. As things stand, both parties have two clear frontrunners: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz for the GOP; Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side. At this point, both races are so close in Iowa that nobody really knows what will happen next Monday night. Will the polls turn out to be correct? Nobody knows. Will enthusiasm trump (pun intended) longtime voter turnout? It could happen on either side, and then again it might not.
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[ Posted Friday, January 22nd, 2016 – 18:07 UTC ]
Honestly, how often is it that you get to write such a great headline? In a week that also included a Sarah Palin speech that dominated the news cycle (to say nothing of the late-night comic cycle), writing such snarky headlines is just icing on the cake, really. Good times... yes, good times indeed for Democrats watching the horrorshow that is the Republican presidential nomination process.
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[ Posted Wednesday, January 20th, 2016 – 17:02 UTC ]
Yesterday, Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump for president. "Of course she did," was the most common reaction to this news -- heard from both left and right. It is not only the most natural progression, but in fact it completes a circle of sorts. Because Palin really was the original Trump, in the world of Republican politics. Which is why I blame John McCain more than anyone else for the fact that Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner of the Republican pack right now. McCain's pick of Palin as running mate truly set the stage for where the GOP finds itself now.
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[ Posted Monday, January 18th, 2016 – 18:27 UTC ]
So we had the fourth Democratic debate last night, and I suppose we should all be thankful that Debbie Wasserman Schultz didn't somehow manage to schedule it to compete with one of football's playoff games. I wouldn't be surprised if the debate had a pretty low viewership, appearing as it did on a Sunday night during a three-day weekend, but those who did manage to catch it saw a much more high-spirited contest between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton than we've previously seen.
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