With three weeks to go before Election Day, Republicans are in retreat while Democrats continue to expand their map. That's a good sign, although of course nothing is guaranteed in politics. We've now entered the debate phase of the campaign, with new debates happening again tonight in three big Senate races (Maine, Iowa, and Georgia). Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to campaign in some very red states, in some awfully small venues.

Let's start with the money moves Republicans are making. Last week, the Republicans pulled their money from the open race for GOP Representative Don Bacon's seat (who is retiring) in Nebraska. Today, two big super PACs also cancelled all their advertising for two sitting Republican representatives, Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa. And they're giving up on two other races for House seats that Democrats currently hold, Representatives Greg Landsman of Ohio and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan. This all adds up to $10 million that the GOP has decided to spend elsewhere, because their own internal polling showed it would be a waste of money in the races they had it scheduled for. They're spreading this money around in new districts that are now looking shaky for them (despite the GOP winning them by margins of up to 18 points in 2024).

This means the Republicans are essentially ceding three House seats to the Democrats -- when they only currently hold a majority of three seats. This might not be the end of their financial retreat either, as "other seats were under active consideration to be abandoned as soon as this week." Meanwhile, Democrats keep adding districts that they are spending money in, as more and more of them look competitive for the Democratic candidates running.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson seems almost resigned to his party losing control of the chamber, at this point. Last week he mused about the possibility of just going back home to Louisiana and starting "a lawn business." This week he (unironically) tried to warn of what would happen if Democrats take control, predicting:

They [Democrats] want to do lawfare on steroids. If this group took over... Heaven forbid!... they would turn every committee of Congress into an investigative body. They would spend every day investigating the president, the first family, the cabinet, donors to the party, leaders in business and industry. It would roil the markets, and it would empower our enemies around the world at the worst possible time.

In other words, if Democrats do take over, they might (gasp!) start doing their jobs as laid out in the U.S. Constitution. Oh, the horror! And that bit about empowering our enemies is truly rich, mere days after Donald Trump announced he'd be pumping billions of dollars into the Russian economy.

Tonight we will see three debates in the race for the Senate, and two of them will probably feature some fireworks. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins will be debating Troy Jackson for the third time in a week. These have been quite lively debates so far, in a very close race. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff will face Representative Mike Collins (no relation to Susan), and if the previous debate between them is any indication, Ossoff will not hold back at all. At this point, Ossoff is looking like he's going to cruise to re-election, so Collins is probably pretty desperate.

The Iowa debate between GOP Representative Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is likely to be much more restrained, however. The last time the two met, they both exemplified "Iowa nice" while they spoke in detail about the issues rather than just launching attacks at each other.

Donald Trump continues to campaign in places like Kansas and Alaska, which is not exactly an indication of Republican confidence. The last time he held a rally in Alaska (in 2022), it was in the Alaska Airlines Center, which holds 5,000 people. This time around, he has chosen a smaller venue, which is probably smart because he's been having problems filling even small arenas almost everywhere he goes. He gets absolutely enraged when this fact is pointed out to him, but empty seats are empty seats. Trump will be speaking in Wasilla, hometown of Sarah Palin, but no word yet on whether she'll show up or not.

Republicans across the board have assumed a defensive crouch, with only three weeks to go before the votes are counted. Democrats seem almost certain to take control of the House, and they could wind up flipping 20 or more seats (which would give them a comfortable majority to work with). The Senate is still up for grabs, as even though Democrats are leading in just about all of the battleground states they are targeting, most of these leads are still pretty thin. Only Georgia and North Carolina seem certain, and that would mean a pickup of only one seat for them. But they are competitive in so many other states (Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and even South Carolina) that picking up the three more that they would need to assume control of the Senate looks entirely possible.

The wind continues to be at the Democrats' backs, and Republicans are getting more and more scared of a blue wave breaking over them in November. They are in danger of losing Senate seats in Kansas and Texas -- both of which should be solid-red strongholds for them. Voters are angry about the economy and Donald Trump doesn't seem to care one whit about the problems of average American families. Three weeks from today, the voters will have the chance to register their disapproval in a big way.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant