Did this year's "October surprise" happen early? I have been pondering this question all weekend, after several major developments have taken place in the increasingly regional war in the Middle East. Could these developments affect the American midterm elections in the way that traditional last-minute political "surprises" have in the final weeks before the public votes? So far, the answers seem unclear, but the potential certainly exists, even though few have commented on this possibility.

The biggest story the mainstream media is mostly ignoring right now is the jaw-dropping spike in the price of diesel fuel over the past week. Last week, the average nationwide U.S. price hit a new all-time high, hitting $5.85 per gallon. The media mostly yawned at this news. Since then -- all in the space of a single week, mind you -- the price is now up to $6.23 per gallon. That's a hike of roughly 40 cents in a very short period of time, and there are no signs that it will abate any time soon.

There are multiple reasons for this spike. The Ukrainian military has had a lot of success in attacking Russian oil infrastructure, such as refineries. This has caused fuel shortages in Russia, to the point where they stopped exporting supplies to the rest of the world. They used to produce a lot of diesel fuel that has now disappeared from the world market. Donald Trump tried to pin all the blame for the recent price hikes on Ukraine, but as usual he is either not telling the whole truth or just ignorant of the real facts. Because Russia isn't the only factor in what has been happening.

The Strait of Hormuz is still either closed or only tenuously open (with U.S. warships attempting to provide protection for a handful of ships transiting the Strait). That has reduced supplies worldwide. But it's not the only problem in the region any more. The Houthis in Yemen recently launched a huge military offensive against government forces that are backed by Saudi Arabia, and they've had some spectacular successes:

Last week, the Houthis, who rule much of northwestern Yemen, swept into the strategic port of Mokha on the Red Sea and seized the island of Perim. Forces allied with the Yemeni government also withdrew from the Hunaish and Zuqar islands late last week, according to Yemeni officials.

Houthi forces subsequently moved into the islands, which lie north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to a Yemeni government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the development candidly.

If you look at a map, those islands all sit smack in the middle of the shipping route through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, meaning they would be a very convenient and strategic position to launch attacks on shipping. The Houthis are so far saying that they're only going to attack ships (including oil tankers, of course) belonging to Saudi Arabia. This doesn't completely cut off Saudi shipping through the Red Sea, but it makes it a lot harder and more expensive because its ships will now have to head north, through the Suez Canal, and then sail all the way around Africa to get to Asian markets.

Simultaneously, an attack apparently launched from Iraq hit a major pipeline (the "East-West Pipeline") in Saudi Arabia -- the same pipeline that provides a lot of the oil the Saudis ship through the Red Sea. This cuts off (in two separate ways) all that oil from getting to the world marketplace. The Saudis have shut the pipeline down and so far have not announced when it might reopen. Up until the attack, they had been successfully avoiding the problem of the Strait of Hormuz by vastly increasing the oil pumped through this pipeline.

All of this is exacerbating the problems of getting oil (whether crude or refined into gasoline, diesel, and other petrochemical products) out to the rest of the world. Which is going to keep gas and diesel prices high in America for the near future -- which includes all of October.

There's no easy fix for any of this, either. The Saudis reportedly called up Donald Trump and begged him to help them out with the Houthis. Trump refused to do so. Trump told reporters over the weekend that the Houthis had "called us and they don't want to fight with us. There's just one country that they're not too happy with and we'll get that straightened out." As usual, however, Trump might just be flat-out lying. A Houthi official responded: "We did not communicate with Trump, nor did we ask him not to attack us." Whichever version you believe, the upshot is that the U.S. will not be coming to Saudi Arabia's aid in this fight. Which is understandable, since our military is already stretched so thin with the war with Iran.

The Saudis had been using the East-West Pipeline and the Red Sea as a route to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and continue successfully shipping oil to the rest of the world. That has gotten a lot harder now, since their biggest pipeline to transport the oil across the country (from the Gulf of Arabia to the Red Sea) is now out of action. Even if they can manage to get oil to the Red Sea, they'll now have to ship it all the way around Africa to get it to their biggest customers. All of which is going to put more upward pressure on oil prices worldwide.

It also means both Iran and their allies the Houthis can just take potshots at oil tankers any time they wish through two major international waterways. Oil infrastructure within Saudi Arabia also looks increasingly vulnerable (nobody claimed credit for the pipeline attack, but no matter what group launched it, the upshot is it benefits Iran).

This all gives Iran new options to harass the United States and the rest of the world. In fact, it was all a huge victory for Iran. Once again, they look like they are winning this war while the U.S. looks completely helpless. Trump's war of choice is not ending any time soon, instead it is now widening to become a much larger regional conflict.

Diesel prices are already through the roof, and they continue to go upward. Gasoline prices in America haven't reacted to the news yet -- they hit a plateau over the weekend, in fact -- but they spiked upwards today. They're currently at $4.30 a gallon, which is about 25 or 30 cents lower than the highest spike during Trump's war of choice with Iran, and still haven't hit their all-time high (which was just over $5.00 a gallon). So it's hard to definitively say that the Houthis' gains and the pipeline attack will be the sort of political "surprise" that can seriously affect the outcome of the upcoming election. But they are already having an effect, which is only going to spread. The price of diesel -- which just spiked 40 cents in one week -- is critical for both farming and for shipping (trucks and trains) within America, which means prices for just about everything are about to get even higher than they already are.

The reason this could wind up looking like an October surprise (at least when people look back at it later) is that there really doesn't seem like there's much of anything Donald Trump either can do or is willing to do to fix any of it before we all vote. Meaning it will exacerbate the worst political problem the Republicans are facing heading into the election -- the affordability crisis. If gas and diesel prices continue to head upward as a result of last week's developments, it could be the deciding factor come November. It's too early to definitively say that now, but the possibility certainly does exist.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant