The Republican midterm party convention (or "Trump-a-Palooza" as most people are now calling it) has reportedly now gotten underway in Texas. In football terms, this would be seen as a "Hail Mary pass" -- a desperate attempt to regain the lead in a game you are about to lose. Football terms are especially apt, since someone at the White House forgot to check the sports calendar when scheduling this extravaganza, meaning that it will have to compete with the opening two games of the N.F.L. football season (tonight features a rematch of last year's Super Bowl, and tomorrow night features a game that will be played in Australia). But that's not the biggest worry Republicans should be having about their convention's chances to turn back an expected Democratic wave election, because there is one reality that Donald Trump and all the rest of the GOP are just not going to be able to wish away.

The worldwide price of a barrel of oil just topped $100 once again. The average U.S. price of gasoline nationwide now stands at $4.26 (according to GasBddy.com), which is an all-time high for this time of year. The average U.S. price for diesel is now a whopping $5.94 (according to AAA), which is an all-time high, period.

To put it all in perspective, the price of oil is up by almost 50 percent since Donald Trump started his war of choice with Iran. The average nationwide price of a gallon of gasoline was $2.75 back in January, meaning it has climbed over $1.50 per gallon since then. The price of gasoline had even gone down when a ceasefire was announced at the start of the summer, but since July it has risen back up by a full 50 cents per gallon. These prices are rising as threats have intensified between Iran and the U.S. over the past week. Diesel looks like it will hit the psychological "six bucks a gallon" mark within days. The previous all-time high for diesel was $5.82, which was set back in 2022 (when Russia invaded Ukraine). One of GasBuddy's analysts posted on social media his own take on things:

with diesel prices $2.25/gal higher than a year ago, businesses are paying $284 million more per day on diesel, while gasoline stands $1.02/gal higher than a year ago, consumers are paying $377 million more per day, adding up to a *$4.63* billion additional surcharge every week

Trump's war of choice has now gone on for more than six months. Earlier, Republicans had hoped for a quick resolution that could have allowed gas prices to come back down over the summer -- which would have allowed the issue to fade, politically. The Memorandum Of Understanding ceasefire might have actually achieved this (as mentioned, it did cause the price of gasoline in America to fall dramatically in June), but the M.O.U. was soon in tatters and prices started going back up again.

Now things have gotten so bad that even Trump has thrown in the towel on any possibility of price relief before the midterms -- which are still two months away. Speaking to reporters before leaving for his Trump-a-Palooza convention, he predicted: "Oh, I think the war is going to end immediately after the election. I think the war will end immediately after the election." He also put on his rosy-tinted glasses by predicting: "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward." He cheerfully predicted gas prices would fall below two bucks a gallon, but that "it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterms."

Setting aside his fantasies about sub-$2-a-gallon gas, what Trump is doing here is admitting that things are completely out of his control. He's showing his weakness, plain and simple. He even admitted as much, saying of Iran: "They're desperate to try and affect the election," which is essentially admitting that they have more control over events than we do.

This is all why the price of oil or gasoline or diesel is quite likely not even going to get mentioned during the two-day Trumpfest in Texas. All the Republican speakers will be doubling down on the same tactic Joe Biden attempted, which is to try to convince the public that the economy is really much better than everyone thinks. This didn't work out very well for Biden (to state the obvious), and it likely isn't going to work very well for the GOP this time around either.

As many have pointed out, the price of gasoline is like no other price for any commodity in America because it is displayed on gigantic signs on every street corner that has a gas station. You really can't escape it. If you drive, you feel the effects of high prices every time you fill up. Pipe dreams of gas being below two bucks a gallon are simply not believable right now, to anyone.

But even those people who don't drive are feeling the effects too. So far the media hasn't made all that big a deal about the record-high diesel prices, but that might change if the average noses above $6.00 per gallon (which is a pretty jaw-dropping milestone). Plenty of Americans are already paying more than that for diesel (that's how averages work), and this affects the entire economy. Farmers have been hit especially hard, since most of their farm machinery runs on diesel. That raises the price of food for everyone. Long-haul truckers are also feeling the pain in a big way, as their fuel costs have gone through the roof. This not only raises the prices of food (which has to be trucked to your local supermarket) but on just about everything. Winter isn't that far away either, so the price of heating oil is going to be a major issue in regions like New England. And all of this feeds into higher inflation on everybody.

This has all changed the political landscape for the midterms, in a big way. States like Iowa and Kansas (which have a whole lot of farmers in them) are now seen as possible battleground states in the Senate races. Border states like Maine and Michigan are reeling under Trump's new trade war with Canada. And while there will be plenty of rah-rah talk from the stage at the Trump-a-Palooza midterm GOP convention, these problems simply can't be wished away any time soon. Trump's own actions have had a big negative effect on the economy, and everyone is feeling the pain. That reality is not going to disappear in the next eight weeks, no matter how hard Trump and his fellow Republicans wish it would.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant