Perpetually Two Weeks Away
Two weeks later, nothing has changed. This shouldn't come as too big a surprise to anyone, really. Donald Trump uses the phrase "in two weeks' time" in exactly the same way that Little Orphan Annie sings about "tomorrow" -- because it never comes. It's perpetually out there in the future, just out of reach.
So let's review. Tomorrow, two full weeks will have gone by since the summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Last night, Russia launched yet another massive attack which targeted civilians in Ukraine. Here's how the New York Times reported on it:
The assault, less than two weeks after President Trump's summit in Alaska with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, showed how the recent American diplomatic flurry has done little to change the Kremlin's determination to continue fighting in Ukraine.
Since Mr. Trump pulled Mr. Putin out of Western diplomatic isolation by inviting him to Anchorage, Russia has made no significant concessions on any of the major sticking points between it and Ukraine, leaving the two sides no closer to peace. The attack on Thursday was Russia's largest on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, since the Alaska meeting.
The Ukrainian authorities said that at least 45 people were injured. A five-story apartment building was destroyed, and other homes were damaged. A missile also hit a shopping mall in central Kyiv, the authorities said, and buildings belonging to the European Union mission and the British Council suffered damage. European officials denounced the Russian strikes.
In all, officials said, Russia launched 598 drones and 31 missiles in the overnight assault on Kyiv and other cities. Ukraine's defenses shot down 563 drones and 26 missiles, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
Before the summit took place, Trump insisted that it would produce a ceasefire. He had gotten tired of Putin "tapping him along," and of seeing bombed-out Ukrainian apartment buildings on his television screen. So he talked angrily and instituted a 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or else a heavy economic penalty would be imposed. He then one-upped himself, shortening this deadline to what at first seemed like a vague goal (of "10 or 12 days") but then was officially set in stone -- 10 days hence, either Russia would agree to a ceasefire or face Trump's economic wrath. This deadline did spur Putin to act, in a way, since he successfully avoided any consequences by offering up a snap summit meeting -- in only one week's time.
Heading into this summit, Trump was still full of tough talk. He said he would be very unhappy if Putin didn't agree to a ceasefire and warned of "very severe consequences" if Putin balked.
Then the summit happened, and everything changed. Originally scheduled to be an all-day event, with two separate meetings and a joint lunch in between, instead Putin spoke to Trump for a little over two hours, after which a joint press conference was announced. After a long delay, this turned out to be nothing more than Putin addressing the world's media with his version of how the war started (total propaganda), as well as a few words of praise for Trump. Trump spoke for only a few moments, without saying much of anything. Then both men walked off the stage, refusing to take any questions. Putin got on his plane and flew home, content with how his cameo spotlight on the world stage had gone.
Trump, meanwhile, tried to optimistically spin the meeting as a great success, saying that Putin had agreed to two big things. The first was that Russia would agree to Ukraine having security guarantees in the future, and the second was that Putin would meet face-to-face with Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This meeting would swiftly be followed by a trilateral meeting with Trump in the room as well. A final peace deal was within reach! When asked how long it would take to set up the two meetings, Trump predicted that they'd either take place or at the very least be firmly agreed to "within two weeks."
But as we all know now, Trump got played by Putin. Putin apparently convinced Trump that a ceasefire was not necessary or even desirable, since the final peace deal was so close at hand anyway. Trump also stopped making economic threats towards Russia.
Since then both the Kremlin and Putin himself have essentially reacted to both the ideas of Ukrainian security guarantees and a meeting with Zelenskyy by saying: "Yeah... that's not going to happen." Trump either misunderstood what Putin was agreeing to, or he just flat-out lied to the world about what Putin had agreed to, or Putin just played Trump for a chump. One of those things has got to be true, and it doesn't even matter much which one it is. The end result is the same -- the only changes that have happened have benefited Putin and made Trump look small and ineffectual.
Now that the initial two weeks is almost up, nothing has changed -- other than Trump backing down on his ceasefire demand and any specific economic threats towards Russia. Trump has still occasionally been goaded into talking about possible sanctions and tariffs, but his timeline for making such a decision has consistently stayed at "in about two weeks," and Trump is rather vague on what he's threatening (unlike when he has threatened every other country in the world with specific tariff rates). Two weeks went by, and Putin is still waging his war of invasion with impunity.
Here is perhaps the best example of how Trump's bluster has changed from the initial "very severe consequences." This was Trump from last Friday (after one week had already gone by), speaking in the vaguest possible terms about economic threats towards Russia, and appearing so bored by the entire subject that he's inching towards just walking away and ignoring it all:
"I'm not happy about anything about that war. Nothing. Not happy at all," [Donald] Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday.
He added that he would make an important decision about the future of the conflict in "two weeks," a phrase that he often uses not to specify a precise time frame, but to indicate that he wants to put off a decision for a while. After that time, he said, "We'll know which way I'm going, because I'm going to go one way or the other."
. . .
If no meeting takes place, "I'll see whose fault it is," Trump said, repeatedly saying that there are two actors involved when asked about Russia's sustained attacks on Ukraine this week.
He left open the possibility that he could pursue economic penalties against Russia or leave Ukraine to go it alone.
"It's going to be a very important decision," Trump said. "And that's whether or not it's massive sanctions or massive tariffs or both, or do we do nothing and say 'It's your fight,'?" Trump said.
. . .
"We'll see what happens. I say, over the next two weeks, we're going to find out which way it's going to go. And, I better be very happy."
Note that: "...or do we do nothing and say 'It's your fight'?"
At this point, that seems like the safe bet. Or an even safer bet: after another two weeks, Trump will still be speaking about any consequences possibly happening "over the next two weeks."
As Annie sang: "I love ya, tomorrow, you're always a day away!"
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are still dying from Russian attacks. Zelensky is trying very gently to lead Trump back to where he was before he sat down with Putin, posting on social media: "Russia chooses ballistics instead of the negotiating table. It chooses to continue killing instead of ending the war. And this means that Russia still does not fear the consequences."
Russia doesn't have to fear the consequences, because Trump is backing down from his threats and may never set a hard deadline. It'll always be "two weeks away."
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Well, let's hope that total collapse remains perpetually two weeks away.