The world's economy changed today. The United States slapped new tariffs on dozens of countries early this morning, following through on Donald Trump's repeated threats to do so. What this is all going to do to world trade and the American economy is really anyone's guess at this point, but it's definitely going to have some sort of effect. American economic policy has returned to a high-tariff scenario not seen in over 90 years, which adds to the uncertainty about what happens next. Since there is no modern data for where we find ourselves now, nobody really knows what is going to happen. But there are a few things that we can intelligently guess about, the first of which is that prices are going to rise for American consumers on all kinds of goods, some of which will be mild price hikes and some of which will be huge:

With the latest round of President Trump's tariffs taking effect on Thursday, many American consumers may soon notice higher prices on everything from sneakers to bananas, as well as the cost of their next car.

The sweeping tariffs target nearly all U.S. trading partners and push the average tax on imports to more than 18 percent, the highest since 1934 and a steep jump from 2.4 percent in January, according to Yale's Budget Lab. While the taxes are levied on importers, exporters and retailers, many economists warn that consumers will bear much of the cost.

Some of the biggest price increases are expected in everyday categories such as clothing, food and cars, according to projections from the Budget Lab. In the short term, shoe prices are forecast to soar by 40 percent, while apparel costs could rise by 38 percent.

Fresh produce prices are expected to increase 7 percent. The average price of a new car could jump by $5,800 in the short run. These price increases could add pressure to household budgets already straining to keep up with inflation.

There's another obvious conclusion to all of this, and that is that the price increases are going to add to inflation itself. A new monthly inflation number will be appearing soon, but it won't reflect the new round of tariffs instituted today. Instead, it will reflect what has already been happening before the new rates took effect. And most economists are already expecting the rate to rise.

This is all adding up to a rather vicious cycle, and a big conundrum for the Federal Reserve. The labor market is already soft, after the dismal jobs report for July and the news that more people are now drawing unemployment benefits than any time since the COVID pandemic. And with all this massive uncertainty, many businesses are taking a "wait and see" attitude, which means pulling back on hiring new people or expanding the business:

The result, many economists say, is a U.S. economy that is largely in a holding pattern, with soft hiring numbers, hesitant consumer spending and businesses contemplating if -- or how -- to cut back if the tariffs begin to cramp economic growth.

"The safest thing for companies here to do is to simply put off investment until you get a clearer picture," said Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank. "At this point, I don't know anyone who would say they feel very confident of what things will look like in a year, two years, three years down the road."

So businesses aren't hiring, unemployment is getting worse, and prices are going up as inflation rises. That is the conundrum the Federal Reserve may soon have to face. The two key issues the Fed is charged with overseeing are unemployment and inflation. Their targets are to keep unemployment as low as possible and to keep inflation at around two percent per year. Unfortunately, they only have one tool in their toolbox to influence both of these: interest rates. And the answers are mutually exclusive.

When inflation runs high, the Fed raises interest rates to cool down the economy (to slow the rise in prices). However, when unemployment runs high, the Fed will lower interest rates to heat the economy up (to stimulate job growth). So what does it do when both inflation and unemployment rise at the same time?

We're not quite there yet, but we are getting very close. And pushing tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression is only going to exacerbate the problem. Incredibly high tariff rates are going to mean higher prices on all sorts of things -- which consumers are already feeling (and which is likely to get much worse, when today's tariff hikes work their way through the supply chain). This all adds to business uncertainty, which means companies stop hiring new people, which drives unemployment up. Because Trump's trade war has been so chaotic, it may even overshadow any effect the Fed might have by lowering or raising interest rates.

What it all adds up to is sailing in uncharted waters. Unfortunately for all of us, the only way to accurately "chart" where we are is to trust the official unemployment and inflation numbers from the government. But Donald Trump just threw all of that into question, by firing the head of the bureau that calculates these numbers. If confidence in the numbers the government is reporting disappears (because of perceived political influence in these numbers) then nobody will really have a clue where we actually are, much less where we are going.

Donald Trump is convinced that he is ushering in a "new golden age" for the American economy. He foresees manufacturing returning to our shores, everyone getting a good job, and prices falling so everything is affordable. So far, none of that has happened yet. If Trump decrees that the numbers reflect his rosy-tinted view of what is happening, then we may indeed be in for a new age for the American economy, but "golden" is not going to be the word people use to refer to it.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant