End Of The Road In Indiana
Indiana likes to call itself the "crossroads of America," which is understandable when you look at a map of the Interstate Highway System and how many major routes intersect in Indianapolis. But tonight, instead, it may very well be the end of the road for the entire primary season. Or, at least, the heavily-contested part of that season. Because tonight we may truly pivot to the general election and stop paying much attention to three of the five remaining candidates.
Before we get to all of that, however, as always we have to update the scoreboard. Last Tuesday might have been the best night for predictions I've had during the entire primary season. As Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware voted in the "I-95 Tuesday" (a late entry in the "let's call it something cute" game), not only did I call all five Republican races and all five Democratic races correctly, I also was spot-on calling the rest of the Republican results: "Kasich, surprisingly, will pick up four second-place finishes, while Cruz ekes out second in Pennsylvania." This was indeed the final result, as Donald Trump swept the GOP, and Hillary Clinton picked up four while Bernie Sanders won in Rhode Island.
Minor predictions (who comes in second and third) don't count in the overall totals at this point, but it does feel good to get things exactly right at least once during the primary season, I have to admit. And even this late in the game, getting 10 races correct has actually moved my overall percentages up a bit. Here's my new scoreboard:
Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 33 for 42 -- 79%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 36 for 46 -- 78%
Total overall correct picks: 69 for 88 -- 78%.
OK, with that out of the way, let's take a look at the Hoosier State.
Indiana (Republicans)
Donald Trump will win (as he will undoubtedly put it) "bigly" tonight. Ted Cruz is going to be mighty disappointed, as will the entire "Stop Trump" movement. Their dreams of forcing an open convention and a second round of delegate voting will die here. After tonight, Trump is going to be almost unstoppable -- all but guaranteed to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright.
Cruz may pick off a few districts here and there, but the important point is that this won't matter in the slightest. Whether Trump gets 50 delegates or sweeps all 57, he's still going to be the party's nominee.
The polling in Indiana has been pretty short-lived (there is no data older than the past few weeks), but even so it seems clear that there is a large last-minute surge towards Trump. Who knows why this is happening -- perhaps it was Cruz's cringeworthy "basketball ring" gaffe, perhaps it was Bobby Knight endorsing Trump -- but there seems to be an awfully strong wave of momentum shifting towards Trump, and this will likely show up at the polls tonight.
Trump, by winning Indiana not only will have a strong mathematical argument to make about how "it's over," but he'll also have the argument that the forces deployed against him (from within the Republican Party) threw everything they had into a state which should have been (from a demographic standpoint) a stronghold for Cruz, and Trump still won big. Even the Machiavellian bargain between Cruz and John Kasich seems to have backfired, and driven more voters to Trump.
My only real question when watching tonight's returns will be whether the networks call the state within seconds of the polls closing, or whether they wait a half-hour or so to do so. But as far as I can see, Trump's going to be the winner either way. In normal times, I would even anticipate either Cruz or Kasich (or both) announcing tonight that their campaign is over. However, these are not normal times, so both will probably push on until the bitter end. But after tonight, Trump will be the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
Indiana (Democrats)
This race is a lot closer than what's going on over on the Republican side. Hillary Clinton has led all the polls, but her lead seems to have shrunk the closer we get to the actual primary. The last poll showed her only four points in front of Bernie Sanders -- which is a closeable distance.
However, I think that tonight will be the highest point the Bernie wave reaches on the shore. I think Hillary Clinton will lose a whole lot of rural counties in Indiana (especially those involved with manufacturing or coal), but that Hillary will win the big cities (Gary, especially) and that this will give her the edge. I expect to see Indiana's results close to those in Illinois, in other words.
I could see the race being extremely close and no winner being called for hours. This, again, was what happened in Illinois. But I think Hillary will pull it out in the end, and by doing so pretty much end the dream that Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. Sorry (to Bernie fans) for putting it so bluntly, but there it is. Indiana is proportional in how it awards delegates, but Hillary is so far out in front that it won't matter much how many she gets, as long as Bernie doesn't have some wild blowout win here. He's not going to do that (even if I turn out to be wrong about Hillary winning the state overall).
From here on out, I honestly think the race is going to become Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump. All the other candidates may hang on all the way through the end, but tonight we will likely have two presumptive nominees and be able to clearly see what the general election is going to look like. Those are my predictions, as always, let me know yours down in the comments.
[Previous states' picks:]
[AK (D)] [AK (R)] [AL] [AR] [AZ] [CO (D)] [CT] [DE] [FL] [GA] [HI (D)] [HI (R)] [IA] [ID (D)] [ID (R)] [IL] [KS] [KY (R)] [LA] [MA] [MD] [ME] [MI] [MN] [MO] [MS] [NC] [NE (D)] [NH] [NV (D)] [NV (R)] [NY] [OH] [OK] [PA] [RI] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [UT] [VA] [VT] [WA (D)] [WI] [WY (D)] [American Samoa (D)] [American Samoa (R)] [Puerto Rico (R)] [Democrats Abroad (D)]
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Wow - results are already coming in!
Boy, they sure do close their polls early in Indiana...
Anyway, rest assured I didn't peek at any returns before writing and posting this.
:-)
-CW
OK, finally got all my posting chores done, and can look at the returns.
With 2% in, Hillary's up by 2,800 votes, and Trump is crushing Cruz by 20 points.
I think some polls in Indiana are still open, so the networks may be waiting for them to close (at 7:00 East Coast Time) to call either race. But I'm expecting them to call Trump the winner at about 7:00:10, if you know what I mean...
-CW
Hillary seems to be widening her lead, with 5% in...
Trump remains dominant. Polls close shortly...
-CW
CBS calls IN for Trump, seconds after polls close...
-CW
No call on Dem race, though...
-CW
It continues to horrify me that Donald Trump is about to be the Repub nominee.
Separately, yeah, looking like Hillary is going to win this one -- a bit of a surprise. Open primary and all that.
Sanders seems to be closing the gap...
10% in...
-CW
Not because (Michale) I think he will win, but because he's so unbelievably awful. From the pov of strategically, it's probably better him than Cruz or Kasich because he really may bring down the House and Senate. But what a horrible (although deserved) failure on the part of the Repub party.
Sanders takes the lead (17% in)!
-CW
Sanders up 2,800 with 26% in...
-CW
Sanders widens the gap to 7,000 -- perhaps I was too hasty in calling the state for Hillary?
:-)
-CW
I think its gonna flip back and forth for awhile...
Gotta go -- later!
Paula -
C ya. Thanks for hanging out watching returns! Where's everyone else? Was IN too early for everyone? Their early returns certainly surprised me...
-CW
Bernie now up over 10K...
40% in
-CW
Bernie doing surprisingly well in urban areas. Finally some numbers in from Evansville, Clinton up there but she may need a whopping lead here to catch up elsewhere.
-CW
Just listened to Cruz dropping out. Boy, didn't see that one coming! Thought he'd stick it out to CA, personally.
Bernie up 23K with 57% in...
-CW
Oops, meant to say "check your email" before I left!
Gotta like seeing Cruz drop out. Glad you were wrong on that one, CW.
CBS calls IN for Bernie!
Hoosiers feel the Bern!
:-)
-CW
Trump just said "bigly" in his speech. Called that one right, at least...
:-)
-CW
I knew we had something going on when I did not see the usual HRC kicks Bernie's ass head line on HP ( and in all fairness they were right about MD, but not many other the polls are closed, no results are in races).
With the Cruz out of the picture. I predict we will now see all of the DNC corporate media arms (coincidentally owned by HRC major contributors)really start to ratchet up the pressure for Bernie to vacate the race.
I hope he does not...I think he is the wild card keeping the dems from slipping into the all to familiar "we've got this in the bag" mode.
Sorry to be so late... busy day today. But it isn't surprising that Bernie is doing so well - it was an open primary today and he does very well in those because of the Independent vote.
Of the 13 Democratic primaries remaining, 6 are closed (Guam, Kentucky, Oregon, New Jersey, New Mexico and DC) and I'd expect HRC to win all of those.
Another 4 are open (Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico caucuses, Montana and North dakota) which will likely all go Bernie's way.
Only 3 are mixed (West Virginia, California and South Dakota) and I expect the split is likely to be one for Bernie (WV) and two for HRC (CA and SD).
Meanwhile the BIG news of the night is that Cruz has suspended his campaign - he's submitted to reality at last!
First, I worry that too many Bernie supporters are promoting the bogus 'Hillary is evil' narrative.
That said, in the end it looks like the Dems will ultimately choose the Pragmatist over the ideologue. Some will make the case that the GOP did the same today - Trump backer Carl Icahn, sensing that the moniker of 'pragmatist' could be a general election benefit for Hillary preemptively put that balloon in the air earlier this week. With or without Bernie, it will be the Dems immediate job to squash that absurd notion before it can gain any altitude.
The Orange Thing has stooped to a new low by implying that Cruz's father was involved in JFK's assassination. It's hard to believe that it's possible to generate sympathy for Cruz, but Trump managed. His attacks on Cruz's family are so vile that it will be interesting to see how Cruz behaves between now and the election.
May the fourth be with you.....
Balthasar wrote:
First, I worry that too many Bernie supporters are promoting the bogus 'Hillary is evil' narrative.
You got that right! They claim that Hillary is a "Republican in Democrats' clothing", which always confuses me. If Hillary was going to push the Republicans agenda forward if she gets elected, then why do the Republicans fear/hate her so much?
There is no doubt that they fear Hillary. They made a movie in 2006-2007 that was meant to trash her reputation if she ran for President in 2008. And they admitted their whole Bengahzi kangaroo court was done just to hurt her campaign numbers. These were seriously major undertakings just to hurt her chances at becoming President. Why? What do they fear that Hillary will do if she becomes President that motivates them to loathe her with the passion that they do?
Balthasar,
First off, welcome to CW.com!
To answer your last questions, I would say that Republicans seem to fear anything that will keep them out of the WH for the foreseeable future and beyond - their lukewarm support for the Trump candidacy, notwithstanding.
I think, insofar as this election cycle is concerned, they see Hillary as a much stronger candidate than anyone the Republicans could possibly nominate.
I have a question, too ... what percentage of Senator Sanders's supporters tend toward the unsightly behavior of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face?
... and also with you, GT!
Donald Trump ... Last rat standing. Heh.
So, what movie is that from? :)
Don Harris [33]
Voting for the lesser evil may ensure you get evil, but not voting just improves your chances of getting the greater evil. It may be unpleasant, but refusing to vote isn't helping your cause any, and may actually harm it if a candidate directly opposed to your cause ends up getting elected as a result.
Don,
I wasn't referring to you when I spoke of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. I was referring to those Bernie supporters who Balthasar identified as "promoting the bogus 'Hillary is evil' narrative.
Do you think Hillary is evil? If so, then I guess I was referring to you.
If you do not think Hillary is evil, then I'm gonna have to start lumping you in the same boat as the other hypersensitive types around here. But, don't worry you'll be in good company. :)
Don,
A question if I may, because I believe you are a serious person with a very serious cause. It needs a new name but, it's a serious and applaudable cause, just the same ...
Do you think that you will have a better opportunity to continue advocating for your cause - and what should be the cause of all Americans, frankly - under a Trump presidency or a Clinton presidency?
Sorry, Don ... but I'm assuming that Senator Sanders will not be the Democratic nominee.
Bleyd,
Don Harris did not say that he will not vote. He said that he won't vote for HilRod.
I agree with most of what Don said. I wasn't going to vote for HilRod regardless of whether or not Bernie ran.
Where does this deep disdain for Hillary come from?
"Do you think Hillary is evil?"
She does have the Cruella de Vil laugh. It makes me suspicious.
Okay, I can appreciate that. Heh.
"Where does this deep disdain for Hillary come from?"
I didn't vote for Obama, Romney, McCain, Bush, Kerry, or Gore. It really isn't about her, but since you've asked, I'll start with Iraq. I was through with her after that. I doubt that she's really learned much.
But it would probably have more success if Hillary was president because the Republican obstruction of Hillary would be more out in the open than with Trump and Trump would never allow himself to be upstaged by the Congress so he would be more of a subject of the people's wrath than Congress.
I think you're right about that first part. But, Sanders's supporters and all Americans who support what you are trying to accomplish will have to continue your efforts throughout her presidency and never give up if you are to see the kind of progress you want and should expect to see.
As for that last bit, I think that gives Trump too much credit. I doubt we'll ever find out but I don't think a President Trump would be able to get anything done with or without Congress. Which, would probably be a good thing.
@liz,
like it or not, bill and hillary do politics old school, and doing that often means pandering, mudslinging, arm-twisting, investment banking and all sorts of other unpleasantness. if that's the game you play, those are the rules.
so, republicans are pissed that bill and hillary are better at it than they are. hardcore liberals think that there's no place for it and it undermines the cause. and with all the foul wind that's been blowing from both sides of the political spectrum for the last twenty-four years, it's not far fetched at all.
politicians like LBJ, harry truman and Andrew Jackson were downright nasty if you crossed them, and sometimes even if you didn't. the clintons fit that mold, and it makes them very effective, but it also makes them widely despised. it goes with the territory.
JL
I may have read that last bit wrong, Don ... a Trump presidency wouldn't be too long before it began to experience the wrath of the people.
A Trump presidency, however, may be a good lesson, if learned, for all of his supporters.
Joshua,
I understand all of what you wrote and it's all baked into another Clinton White House. And, if it wasn't the likes of Donald Trump she was going to be running against, those may all be valid reasons to oppose her.
But, she is running against Trump and the baked in disdain for her to the point of not voting for her in the general, befuddles me.
"the baked in disdain for her to the point of not voting for her in the general, befuddles me."
I'm under the impression that you understand our insane election system fairly well, Liz. This actually only matters in a handful of "swing" states. So far, my vote has never determined the victor in any election, much less the presidential election (where my vote doesn't count at all). If I thought that I could decide the election, I might actually vote for HilRod. She'll probably win. I won't lose any sleep over it.
. . . and once again, Trump may be an orange-faced clown in a weird toupee, but at least he's not Cruz, Carson, or another Bush!
Well, John, no one person can decide the election, of course. But, I think we Canadians and Americans all too easily, all too often dismiss the importance of our votes and the power of our collective action. And, maybe that's why we get the kind of politicians we often get.
By the way, what did you think of Kasich's speech today?
I think it was bizarre.
Heh.
They're all performance artists now. Even the meerkats. Did you know that he used to be a regular on that fake news channel? He used to substitute host The Factor when O'Reilly was on vacation and I think he had his own show too.
I did not know that.
Balthasar,
First, I worry that too many Bernie supporters are promoting the bogus 'Hillary is evil' narrative.
That's because it's not a myth..
Put another way..
If Hillary had a -R after her name, ya'all would think she is the epitome of evil....
This is simply inarguable...
Michale
Liz,
They're all performance artists now. Even the meerkats. Did you know that he used to be a regular on that fake news channel? He used to substitute host The Factor when O'Reilly was on vacation and I think he had his own show too.
And THAT is what you call a "serious" argument??? :^/
Michale
Michale,
Are you back already!?
Yep.. :D
"Did you miss me??"
"With every shot so far..."
-Married With Children
:D
Michale
Indeed.
:-)
If Hillary had a -R after her name
you mean she doesn't? i'm being facetious of course, but MANY on the left seriously do believe she is an arch-conservative pretending to be a democrat.
JL