ChrisWeigant.com

Calling Saturday's Democratic Caucuses

[ Posted Thursday, March 24th, 2016 – 16:57 UTC ]

Shouldn't that be "caucii"? Well, maybe not.

You'll have to excuse me sounding a little loopy, but we all tend to get that way in the brutal middle slog of the primary season. Around 30 states have voted on both sides, with no clear national winners yet. The delegate-counting has reached a frenzy, and you'd think every state would count at this point. The pollsters, however, obviously do not think this. I'll get to all of that in a moment, however, as the first thing I need to do is update my record.

I had a pretty good night on Tuesday, prediction-wise. On the Democratic side, I went 3-for-3, correctly calling Idaho and Utah for Bernie Sanders and Arizona for Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, I did just as well -- at least where there were any meaningful results. I called Arizona for Donald Trump and Utah for Ted Cruz, giving me 2-for-2 among states. However, I also called the territory American Samoa for Trump, but the results mean we're going to have to consider this prediction a scratch, and just not count it at all in the total. Depending on the source, American Samoa either left all nine of their delegates as "uncommitted," or possibly one committed for Cruz and one for Trump. Either way, "uncommitted" was the big winner of the night. So the easiest thing for me to do is just ignore the results completely in my final total (Trump didn't win, but then again he didn't lose...).

I didn't do so well on side bets (or extraneous predictions) on Tuesday, though. I royally screwed up one, simply by not doing my homework, because quickly researching Arizona's primary would have avoided calling a race which didn't actually happen (it'll happen later in the year). I predicted Senator John McCain would fend off a primary challenger within his own party, but didn't realize that that particular primary wasn't scheduled for Tuesday. Whoops! Mea culpa and all of that.

My other side prediction was woefully wrong. I said Ted Cruz would fail to reach the 50 percent mark in Utah (which gave him all the delegates up for grabs). He easily surpassed this mark -- it wasn't even close. I guess I overestimated how much support John Kasich would draw, or something. Whatever I was thinking, I got it wrong.

But side bets don't count in the totals, which were boosted by a perfect 3-for-3 night on the Democratic side and a 2-for-2 night on the Republican side. Here are my new running totals:

Total correct 2016 Democratic picks: 23 for 31 -- 74%
Total correct 2016 Republican picks: 29 for 39 -- 74%
Total overall correct picks: 52 for 70 -- 74%.

That's more across-the-board consistent than any previous time, I should point out. But enough of the old news, let's get on with predicting Saturday's contests (I'm doing so a day early so as to avoid cluttering up the Friday column). There are three of them, and they're all on the Democratic side. Washington, Alaska, and Hawai'i will all be holding caucuses in two days. Since every election night so far has to have a cutesy name, I'm guessing this one will be something like "Pacific Saturday."

Polling in all three states is close to non-existent. Now, I can understand how Alaska is a hard state to poll for many reasons, but Hawai'i doesn't really have the same problems. And Washington state really has no excuse. They've got big cities, big high-tech industries, a vibrant population -- and yet they still get ignored by pollsters. So we're left with virtually nothing but gut instinct to go on.

 

Alaska (Democrats)

Having said all of that, surprisingly, Alaska is the only state which does have recent polling. Well, fairly recent. There were two polls conducted in January, one of which put Hillary Clinton up by three points (44-41) and one which put Bernie Sanders ahead by a whopping 14 points (48-34). Just goes to show how challenging polling is way up north, I suppose.

Alaska holds a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats are allowed in. Sanders does well in caucuses in general, but he does even better when independents get to participate. Even with the closed nature of the caucuses, though, I'm going to say Alaska goes for Bernie. Alaskans are pretty independent-minded, so I think Bernie will have a clear edge.

 

Hawai'i (Democrats)

No polling data exists at all from the Aloha State. So it's a gut call, pure and simple. I could see Bernie doing well here, due to his personality (who do you think would be more comfortable on a beach drinking a Mai Tai -- Hillary or Bernie?), and it is a caucus state. However, I'm going to go against my first inclination and say Hillary wins the night (a very late night, due to time-zone differences, especially for you folks on the East Coast).

Hawai'i is pretty laid-back, to be sure. It'll be a test of how both candidates do with Asian and Pacific demographics, too. And much of Hawai'i sees the military in a sympathetic light (the Navy, in particular), due to their large presence there (both physically and in their economy). But the real reason I'm thinking there may be somewhat of an upset here for Hillary is that the state absolutely loves its most successful favorite son, who now sits in the Oval Office. Hillary's close embrace of Barack Obama is, I think, going to carry the day for her here. I could be very wrong about this one -- the safe bet would be to say Bernie will win -- but I think Hillary will surprise everyone and take Hawai'i Saturday night.

 

Washington (Democrats)

Again, no polling data is available for Washington state (which is truly disgraceful). I could find only one metric, from a local newspaper -- Bernie Sanders has raised more money in the state than Hillary Clinton ($2.6 million to $2 million). This might not be a clear indication of how many people will turn out to caucus for both, however.

Washington's caucuses, however, are open to all. So on that fact alone, I'm going to go ahead and say Sanders wins the Evergreen State handily.

 

When I sat down to write this, I considered predicting a complete sweep for Bernie Sanders, but overenthusiastically "feeling the Bern" has gotten me into trouble before, so my final prediction is that Bernie wins Washington and Alaska, but that Hillary takes Hawai'i. Disagree with my picks? Let me know what you think in the comments, as always.

 

[Previous states' picks:]

[AK (R)] [AL] [AR] [AZ] [CO (D)] [FL] [GA] [HI (R)] [IA] [ID (D)] [ID (R)] [IL] [KS] [KY (R)] [LA] [MA] [ME] [MI] [MN] [MO] [MS] [NC] [NE (D)] [NH] [NV (D)] [NV (R)] [OH] [OK] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [UT] [VA] [VT] [American Samoa (D)] [American Samoa (R)] [Puerto Rico (R)] [Democrats Abroad (D)]

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

49 Comments on “Calling Saturday's Democratic Caucuses”

  1. [1] 
    TheStig wrote:

    I just found out comedian Garry Shandling has died. I watched his Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee episode maybe a week ago..ironically titled "It's Great Garry Shandling Is Still Alive." Well, not any more, but I think Shandling would appreciate the irony and he was noted for cringe comedy. Anyway, he essentially got to do his own obituary, and it's a good one, in a Porche 930, with his buddy Jerry. It's worth watching.

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    Hay CW??

    I think you left a BOLD attribute open somewhere?? :D

    Michale

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    I kinda like it.. :D

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    TS,

    Yea, I heard about Garry Shandling.. Not much of a fan, but I did like him in Iron Man 2 ("Fuck you, Mr Stark. Fuck you." heh) and Captain America: Winter Soldier...

    Michale

  5. [5] 
    neilm wrote:

    If you get a chance to see Lindsay Graham on "The Daily Show" watch it.

    The man is incredibly funny. One teaser, when the topic of Trump being orange came up "Trump makes Boehner look like an albino".

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    One teaser, when the topic of Trump being orange came up "Trump makes Boehner look like an albino".

    Never thought I would see the day where Weigantians were all about the color of one's skin... :^/

    I guess it's another facet of TDS....

    Michale

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    Never thought I would see the day where Weigantians were all about the color of one's skin... :^/

    That should have been a ':D' rather than a ':^/'

    My bust... The BOLDness is throwing me off. :D heh

    Michale

  8. [8] 
    neilm wrote:

    “If Donald Trump carries the banner of my party,” Graham said, “I think it taints conservatism for generations to come. I think his campaign is opportunistic, race-baiting, religious bigotry, xenophobia. Other than that, he’d be a good nominee.”

    Lindsay Graham should have been a comedian.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/lindsey-graham-cruz-trump-daily-show-interview_us_56f3fd29e4b04c4c37616ac0

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    I find that as funny as this:

    "Every survivor of sexual assault deserves to be heard, believed, and supported"
    -Hillary Clinton

    Hillary Clinton should have been a comedienne :D

    Michale

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    Awww right!!!

    Hillary On Area 51 Secrets: ‘I Think We Ought To Share It With The Public’
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/25/hillary-on-area-51-secrets-i-think-we-ought-to-share-it-with-the-public/

    Now THAT's just not playing fair!!!!

    If I thought for even a micro-second that Hillary would follow thru with her promise, I *MIGHT* consider voting for her..

    But, she simply CANNOT be trusted....

    Michale

  11. [11] 
    neilm wrote:

    Area 51: If I thought for even a micro-second that Hillary would follow thru with her promise, I *MIGHT* consider voting for her..

    Har har :)

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    Neil,

    I am serious.. The ONE thing left on my bucket list is FIRST CONTACT...

    ANY candidate that says they will reveal all that is known about UFOs and ETs and I actually BELIEVE they will follow thru???

    They would get my vote..

    Michale

  13. [13] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I kinda like it.. :D

    I don't.

  14. [14] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Will there now be a super-bold face to highlight something?

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Will there now be a super-bold face to highlight something?

    I am sure CW left a BOLD attribute open.. I doubt this is going to be the norm from now on... :D

    Michale

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    I am serious.. The ONE thing left on my bucket list is FIRST CONTACT...

    ANY candidate that says they will reveal all that is known about UFOs and ETs and I actually BELIEVE they will follow thru???

    They would get my vote..

    The reason why I can make this vow is that, once First Contact occurs, the world as we know it will end...

    Michale

  17. [17] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @liz,

    as a canadian, any opinions of the not-guilty verdict for jian ghomeshi? the whole thing makes me sad - i used to love his music, but he appears to have gotten away with sexual assault.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/world/jian-ghomeshi-verdict-canada-feat/

    JL

  18. [18] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    No opinion, whatsoever, as I know very little of him or his music or his legal case.

    The broader issue is, of course, of concern to me, as it always was and always will be.

    His case was just one of many and it is getting way too much attention, as far as I'm concerned.

    Some of these cases are proven in a court of law and some are not. In any event, sometimes it is just hard to know who is guilty and who is innocent. That is how both of our legal systems work.

  19. [19] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    The only verdict that interested me this week was the one that found the former Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic guilty of a host of war crimes, including genocide. He was sentenced to 40 years in prison, less time served since he was arrested in 2008. Which means he will die in prison if there is a shred of justice left in the world.

  20. [20] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @liz,

    agreed on karadzic.

    ghomeshi was lead singer and songwriter of moxy fruvous, one of toronto's most beloved bands. it's practically on the level of bill cosby.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/fruheads-struggle-to-reconcile-their-love-for-ghomeshis-former-band/article21603675/

    JL

  21. [21] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I don't know much about Bill Cosby, either. :)

  22. [22] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Sorry, I'm just not much into celebrity ... never have been.

    In fact, when I am interested in, say a singer or an actor, who is not a celebrity but a good artist, I tend to lose interest should they ever become a celebrity.

    Not my cup of tea, I guess ...

  23. [23] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I have heard of Moxy Fruvous, though.

  24. [24] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    fruvous music was (and still is) outstanding. some of their tunes inspired some of my own.

  25. [25] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    If you have a link, I'll give it a listen ...

  26. [26] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @liz,

    there's such a playlist to choose from, but here's one of my all-time favorites:

    https://youtu.be/7ILNpR9DfYE

  27. [27] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Thanks, Joshua ... it may be a generational thing. Heh.

  28. [28] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    neilm (8) michale (9)
    Lindsey Graham and Hillary are not comedians?

  29. [29] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:
  30. [30] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale [2] -

    Whoops. There, I think I fixed it...

    -CW

  31. [31] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale [7] -

    Aha! It's not just me, having tag problems...

    Heh.

    -CW

  32. [32] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale [10] -

    The truth is out there.

    Seriously, what'd you think of the recent "X-Files" reboot?

    I thought it was kinda cool, and wanted more, personally....

    -CW

  33. [33] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    LizM [14] -

    Okay! Okay! I fixed it!

    [grumble...]

    :-)

    -CW

  34. [34] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    nypoet22 and LizM -

    The one that still gets me is Rolf Harris, personally. My parents had an album of his ("The Court Of King Coractacus" I believe), and his songs were so funny it was hard to deal with his sordid history...

    "Behind the doorway the farmer stands / He has not gone out for some beer..." as well as the best version of "Waltzing Matilda" (with commentary) I've ever heard.

    OK, has nothing to do with Canada, but had to throw it out there...

    -CW

  35. [35] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Don Harris [28] -

    I live for the day when I can vote for Al Franken for president, pesonally...

    Heh.

    -CW

  36. [36] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Okay! Okay! I fixed it! [grumble...]

    Heh.

  37. [37] 
    Michale wrote:

    hehehe Now THAT was funny!! :D

    Michale

  38. [38] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    hello, hello, hello.

    https://youtu.be/MGtMwU8wDmc

    just testing.

    ;)

  39. [39] 
    Michale wrote:

    Hi!! How are ya!! Come here often!?? :D

  40. [40] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Soitenly!

  41. [41] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    I see I'm not the only one getting a little loopy...

    Heh.

    Results are already starting to trickle in. WA and AK are both going overwhelmingly for Bernie. Still less than 20% reported in both, though. HI won't be until very late...

    -CW

  42. [42] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Alaska called for Bernie!

    -CW

  43. [43] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    77%-23% in washington. yikes!

  44. [44] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    hey cw, since i know you're watching, care to speculate on what happens if bernie overtakes hillary on pledged delegates, superdelegates waver, trump can't get to 1,237, neither dem gets 2,383 and BOTH conventions are contested? not THAT far-fetched, right?

    JL

  45. [45] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    nypoet22 -

    Wouldn't that be fun for politics-watchers everywhere, eh?

    :-)

    Was out working on the car... saw that WA got called.

    It's interesting, because in state after state, it's not even close -- both ways. Either Bernie trounces Hillary, or she trounces him. Very few states have been all that close...

    -CW

  46. [46] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Oh, and HI caucuses have closed, but no results yet...

    -CW

  47. [47] 
    Michale wrote:

    Kick ass, Bernie!!! :D

    Ya'all are making a BIG mistake in nominating Hillary...

    "I've made 'em before."
    -Eliot Ness, THE UNTOUCHABLES

    Interesting factoid. Eliot Ness was a hunter and did a stint on SUPERNATURAL

    :D

    Michale

  48. [48] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Honolulu paper calling it for Bernie, when 88% of results were finally annunced. Looks like I should have gone with a Bernie sweep...

    -CW

  49. [49] 
    Michale wrote:

    CW,

    Ya just can't catch a break, eh? :D

    Michale

Comments for this article are closed.