ChrisWeigant.com

Rubio Goes All In

[ Posted Tuesday, April 14th, 2015 – 15:10 UTC ]

Yesterday, Senator Marco Rubio became the fourth candidate to officially announce his intentions for the 2016 presidential run. He now joins Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in his own party, and Hillary Clinton across the aisle, as official candidates. I have to say, one thing about Rubio's candidacy is impressive, even if you don't agree with anything the man stands for. Rubio is going "all in," in poker terms. If he doesn't win his party's nomination and go on to win the White House, then he will almost certainly be out of a job when the dust settles. That shows a degree of commitment that few other politicians ever make these days, casting aside a cushy Senate seat for the chance at becoming president. As in poker, he's shoved all his chips to the middle of the table for one bet that could leave him at the top or flat broke. And, I have to say, that in and of itself is an admirable thing.

Marco Rubio will be an interesting candidate for other reasons, as well. At the moment, it is impossible to tell whether his strongest assets might turn out to be his biggest weaknesses as well, which always makes for an interesting campaign. Rubio's announcement, planned for weeks, kind of got its parade rained on by Hillary Clinton announcing a day earlier. Rubio deftly played off Hillary's announcement in his own, though, portraying himself as a young fresh voice in contrast to old and stale -- both directly linking Hillary Clinton to this description as well as implying that the same applied to Jeb Bush. Rubio is "tomorrow," fighting against the entrenched forces of "yesterday," which is always an impressive political trick to pull off for any politician. Voters, especially in presidential contests, are indeed thinking about the future more than interested in refighting past battles. Rubio, so far, is the youngest person in the race, and he's playing it up as a positive thing.

There are two possible problems for Rubio in taking this path, though. The first is that he'll be running on his youthful exuberance more than his long political experience. He's a charismatic young guy who can give a decent speech, but his political résumé is pretty thin. He's spent some time as a state legislator, and then one term in the United States Senate. Where have we heard all of this before? Republicans have been bemoaning Barack Obama's "inexperience" for the job of president for a good eight years now, so the answer is now to elect the most inexperienced guy from their side? This argument, obviously, is going to come from Rubio's Republican opponents, during the primary season. I could easily see someone, during a debate, lobbing a line like "Hope and change, Republican edition" at Rubio, in fact. At the same time, Rubio is going to try to milk his Washington experience (especially on foreign relations) for all its worth -- which will also serve to undermine his "new, fresh face" image.

The second problem Rubio may have will come from Democrats. Rubio can repeat the words "tomorrow" and "yesterday" all he wants, but so far he hasn't come up with any policies that aren't as stale and discredited as trickle-down economics. Now, to be fair, it is early days and Rubio shouldn't be criticized for not outlining all his positions immediately (neither should Hillary Clinton, but that's another story). Over the course of the campaign, he'll have plenty of time to stand up for whatever issues he chooses. But Rubio is going to collide head-on with the same brick wall that every other Republican who plans on running on "income inequality" is going to -- the fact that Republicans have no real answers to people's flat paychecks other than to give their boss another big tax cut. Rubio made some waves for tossing a bone to the middle class in the midst of calling for more tax cuts for the wealthy -- he wants to increase the child tax credit -- but that's pretty thin gruel, policy-wise, and he's already getting some grumbles from the right about even going that far.

Rubio's signature issue kind of self-destructed, a while back. He was going to be the Republican Party's savior on immigration reform. He announced a position of leadership for himself in the "Gang of Eight" negotiations, trumpeted all the concessions he had wrested from the Democrats, and proudly saw the bill pass the Senate by a wide bipartisan margin. Then the bill went over to the House, where the anti-immigrant Republicans killed it dead as a doorknob. "Amnesty!" they cried, loud and long. Rubio quailed before the firestorm, and immediately began disassociating himself with the bill that was supposed to show what a masterful political leader he was. Nothing has been done on immigration reform since, in Congress. Rubio's biggest asset turned into a liability for him within his own party right before his astonished eyes. Since then, Rubio has tried to make amends by positioning himself to the far right of his own bill. This has met with mixed success, at best, among conservatives.

The other big plus for Rubio is the fact that he's a Latino. The Republican Party, obviously, has a big problem with Latino voters that seems to be getting worse as time goes by. Cuban-American Rubio was supposed to reverse this trend. Unfortunately for Rubio, however, President Obama is moving faster on improving relations with Cuba than any president in the last 50 or 60 years. Rubio's position is stuck in "yesterday" -- all the way back to the 1950s and 1960s. He will not budge an inch on Cuba, which has been the default Republican position since the dawn of the Cold War. The problem for Rubio is that while the Republican Party has not moved, the Cuban-American voters are starting to. Barack Obama won the Cuban-American vote, twice. Younger Cuban-Americans could care less what happened back in Eisenhower's time, they are much more interested in traveling to Cuba to see relatives they've never met in person. And as relations improve between the two countries over the next year and a half, Rubio is going to increasingly look like he is incapable of adjusting to a changing world.

So while Rubio is trying to launch his campaign and position himself as "tomorrow," when you look at his actual policy positions he seems to have a whole lot of "yesterday" baggage himself. He's trying to be a strong voice on foreign policy, but one wonders if he realized what the politically-savvy will think of his campaign slogan "A New American Century" -- because it only brings back memories of the Project for a New American Century, and all the neo-conservative warmaking that PNAC stood for. Yes, even "A New American Century" now belongs to yesterday's thinking (or, at the least, to yesterday's sloganeering).

What does this leave Rubio with, politically? He is young and good-looking, with a baby face that the television cameras are going to love. But even on the baby-faced criteria, he may get some competition from other Republicans (Rand Paul springs immediately to mind, and a case could even be made for Lindsey Graham's cherubic looks).

Having said all of that, Marco Rubio is still going all-in on his own chances to become president -- much more so than any other announced candidate. Rubio may not even have a shot at vice president, if Jeb Bush wins the nomination (Bush and Rubio are from the same state, a constitutional no-no). Florida's election law bars people from running simultaneously for two offices, so Rubio will not be on the ballot to hold his Senate seat in the primary. He could possibly mount an independent campaign in the general election for his own Senate seat if he loses the presidential primary race, but the more likely outcome is that Rubio's political career would be finished (for the time being) if he loses the presidential nomination. Rubio, to his credit, didn't try to force the state government to carve out a loophole for him, which Rand Paul actually is doing (Kentucky has the same election law, but they're now going to hold a caucus for president, so that Rand can run in the primary for his Senate seat). Ted Cruz doesn't have the problem Paul and Rubio do, as he won't face a Senate election until 2018. Neither Jeb Bush nor Hillary Clinton holds political office right now. What this all means is that, so far, Marco Rubio has the most to lose from throwing his hat into the ring. Whatever you think of his chances, and whatever you think of his political stances, I have to say that it is admirable that Rubio is not relying on a fallback plan if his campaign fails. It's a mark of the faith in his own cause that few modern politicians (from either party) are ever willing to make.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

16 Comments on “Rubio Goes All In”

  1. [1] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale -

    I'm toying with having fun for the next few weeks by only writing about announced candidates. So I have to ask you, what do you think about each of the three on the GOP side so far? What are your thoughts, positive and negative, on Cruz, Paul, and Rubio?

    -CW

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    Rubio deftly played off Hillary's announcement in his own, though, portraying himself as a young fresh voice in contrast to old and stale

    "Old and busted.... New hotness..."
    -Agent J, MEN IN BLACK II

    :D

    There are two possible problems for Rubio in taking this path, though. The first is that he'll be running on his youthful exuberance more than his long political experience. He's a charismatic young guy who can give a decent speech, but his political résumé is pretty thin.

    Hmmmmmm

    Sound like anyone we used ta know?? Say circa 2008?? :D

    Where have we heard all of this before?

    I really need to read further on before I comment. :D

    Republicans have been bemoaning Barack Obama's "inexperience" for the job of president for a good eight years now, so the answer is now to elect the most inexperienced guy from their side?

    As I have said often, inexperience in and of itself, is not a bad thing. One could spin it as untainted...

    Inexperience only becomes a factor after the fact... It can be alleviated and even eliminated as a factor by surrounding one's self with people who HAVE experience..

    That's were Obama failed. He surrounded himself with people who were more incompetent then HE was and were, to boot, nothing but sycophants..

    He will not budge an inch on Cuba, which has been the default Republican position since the dawn of the Cold War.

    Cuba still jails those who dissent. Cuba still supports terrorists world wide...

    Rubio's position on Cuba is the ONLY morally correct position to have..

    What does this leave Rubio with, politically? He is young and good-looking, with a baby face that the television cameras are going to love. But even on the baby-faced criteria, he may get some competition from other Republicans (Rand Paul springs immediately to mind, and a case could even be made for Lindsey Graham's cherubic looks).

    Not that I am one to be swayed by a man's looks.... :D

    But Graham reminds me of BOB in that video game Messiah

    img337.imageshack.us/img337/2968/messiahbox.jpg

    Creepy....

    Rand Paul??? He loos like Rumplestiltskin with his angry wig in SHREK 4..

    basementrejects.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/shrek-forever-after-rumpelstiltskin-angry-wig.jpg

    Uber creepy....

    If we were to go strictly on looks, of the candidates that have declared, Rubio is by FAR the most aesthetically pleasing....

    NOTE: In an effort to evade the one-link rule, you'll have to cut and paste to see the pics..

    I have to say that it is admirable that Rubio is not relying on a fallback plan if his campaign fails. It's a mark of the faith in his own cause that few modern politicians (from either party) are ever willing to make.

    Once again, you show why I like it here... For the most part, you don't let partisan ideology stand in the way of giving credit where credit is due...

    Michale

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    Michale -

    I'm toying with having fun for the next few weeks by only writing about announced candidates. So I have to ask you, what do you think about each of the three on the GOP side so far? What are your thoughts, positive and negative, on Cruz, Paul, and Rubio?

    "Al, what are you doing? Why are you dragging me into this?"
    -Genie, ALADDIN

    :D

    Sorry, you know me and movie quotes. I couldn't resist.. :D

    Seriously though..

    I don't like Rand Paul.. His non-interventionist streak rubs me the wrong way.

    " Never again will I allow our political self-interest to deter us from doing what we know to be morally right. Atrocity and terror are not political weapons. And to those who would use them, your day is over. We will never negotiate. We will no longer tolerate and we will no longer be afraid. It's your turn to be afraid."
    -Harrison Ford, AIR FORCE ONE

    The United States is the only remaining super power on the planet.

    "With great power comes great responsibility."
    -Uncle Ben, SPIDERMAN

    Paul probably has some good qualities that I would agree with.. But the non-interventionist in him is a deal breaker...

    As far as Cruz goes, he reminds me of a used car salesman or a game show host... Very slick...

    I don't like slick...

    If the election were today, my choice would be Rubio... He is young and he appears to be smart enough to know that he doesn't know it all. Unlike our current POTUS.. He has a moral center that appeals to me and he also appears to put country before his own personal ambition..

    His support of immigration amnesty bother's me, but at this point in time, it's not a deal breaker... He actually has some really good ideas on immigration such as border security and all.. But he shouldn't have tried for a grand bargain with Democrats whose only goal is to mint fresh new Dem voters. He should have just pushed the security issues first and then deal with Democrats from THAT position..

    But that's a minor flaw in his otherwise decent record..

    So, of the three, Rubio would be my choice..

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    As far as Cruz goes, he reminds me of a used car salesman or a game show host... Very slick...

    I don't like slick...

    For the record, my impression of Cruz is solely and completely based on his looks...

    He IS a bomb thrower and I like bomb throwers (in the metaphorical sense, of course).

    But my reaction to Cruz is visceral, not logical....

    Michale

  5. [5] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    "The other big plus for Rubio is the fact that he's a Latino."

    I have my doubts about that being much of an advantage to him at all. It's difficult to believe that Mexicans will be fooled by the identity politics of white, right-wing Cubans.

  6. [6] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale -

    Fair enough. Was interested in what you'd say to the ones officially in the race.

    OK, that Messiah photo was indeed creepy, but it also bolstered my "cherubic looks" comment about Graham, which caused me to actually physically cringe while writing...

    Heh.

    Although the Rand Paul thing was a bit much, I have to say.

    [Thanks for posting text URLs instead of links, too -- this is how to post multiple links, everyone, without getting moderated.]

    What do you think of the comparison to the looks (superficial only) of Ted Cruz to Joe McCarthy? Again, interested parties want to know...

    John From Censornati -

    Yeah, I was being polite for the first official "Rubio's a candidate" article, so I didn't want to go into the whole "Cuban vs. other Latino immigrants" thing. But it will indeed be a big factor.

    What I'm waiting for, personally, is for some pundit to ask Rubio "when do you think the special Cuban exemption to immigration should be lifted?"

    Not that I'm holding my breath, or anything...

    -CW

  7. [7] 
    John M wrote:

    Michale

    While I like your Harrison Ford quote, I like the Picard quote from First Contact much better. I'm surprised you didn't use it instead. :-)

    Picard: " We've made too many compromises already, too many retreats. They invade our space, and we fall back. They assimilate entire worlds, and we fall back. Not again. The line must be drawn here! This far, no further! And I will make them pay for what they've done!"

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    OK, that Messiah photo was indeed creepy,

    Yea, my middle grandson looked EXACTLY like that when he was a toddler.. So much so, it was spooky..

    The game itself was pretty kewl.. :D You were a little angel named BOB who could possess other characters in the game to accomplish your missions...

    It's old, but was a pretty awesome 3PS in it's time..

    Although the Rand Paul thing was a bit much, I have to say.

    Yea, perhaps.. But that was my first impression....

    What do you think of the comparison to the looks (superficial only) of Ted Cruz to Joe McCarthy? Again, interested parties want to know.

    I can see why you would ask.. :D

    https://www.google.com/search?q=joe+mccarthy&safe=off&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=933&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=D58vVfLhBMeUNuG0gbAM&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ#safe=off&tbm=isch&q=joe+mccarthy+ted+cruz&revid=891956409

    While it's probably due to the "fashion" of the different era, I don't see Cruz as "hard" or "vicious" as McCarthy... There is definitely some superficial resemblance but, solely based on the side by side comparison, McCarthy looks like he would just as soon stomp on your face as look at you...

    Cruz looks more like the guy who will be your best friend, put his arm around you and THEN stab you in the back...

    Again, that's just my gut... Cruz maybe the nicest guy in the world and might make an AWESOME POTUS...

    Like I said, I like bomb-throwers.. I like the guys who shake up the status quo and rock the doddering old fools back on their heels...

    And I am willing to wager that if Cruz was exactly the way Cruz is, but pushed a Progressive agenda, ya'all would like him for those exact same reasons I do.. :D

    Michale

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    JM,

    While I like your Harrison Ford quote, I like the Picard quote from First Contact much better. I'm surprised you didn't use it instead. :-)

    Picard: " We've made too many compromises already, too many retreats. They invade our space, and we fall back. They assimilate entire worlds, and we fall back. Not again. The line must be drawn here! This far, no further! And I will make them pay for what they've done!"

    When yer right, yer right.. :D

    Michale

  10. [10] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    What does this leave Rubio with, politically? He is young and good-looking, with a baby face that the television cameras are going to love.

    in spite of mountains of evidence spanning from kennedy/nixon to obama/mccain, we underestimate at our peril the influence on the electorate of a presidential candidate's ability to look good on camera (or in a bathing suit). nobody talks about it on "respectable" news shows, but i think there's a HUGE tendency for voters' minds to spin events based on a candidate's looks and charisma.

    On the substantive front, Rubio's old stomping grounds in west miami is an area i used to frequent with regularity, since my friend (with whom i co-published here at CW dot-com) lived literally on the border of the neighborhood. I don't think it's even possible to be politically connected in miami-dade without being at least a little corrupt, and that area is certainly no exception. Rubio's essentially following the same model as Obama and Kennedy. If you're young and hip, nobody cares that you have no clue what you're doing, and major stumbles are re-cast as "growing pains."

    JL

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    Rubio's essentially following the same model as Obama and Kennedy. If you're young and hip, nobody cares that you have no clue what you're doing, and major stumbles are re-cast as "growing pains."

    "Ouch!! And the ref takes a point away!!!"
    -Jim Carrey, LIAR LIAR

    :D

    Michale

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    [Thanks for posting text URLs instead of links, too -- this is how to post multiple links, everyone, without getting moderated.]

    Keep in mind that you have to get rid of any 'www' in the link or the software will post it as a link...

    http://www.mfccfl.us will automatically post as a link and you only get one per...

    mfccfl.us will not post as a link and you can add to yer heart's content...

    Michale

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    Ya'all gotta ask yerselves one question..

    https://youtu.be/ngElkyQ6Rhs

    Would Han Solo vote for Hillary Clinton.... :D

    Michale

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/hillary-parks-handicap-spot_921187.html

    Imagine the hysteria from the Left if Rubio's campaign van parked in a handicapped spot....

    Michale

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    OK, that Messiah photo was indeed creepy, but it also bolstered my "cherubic looks" comment about Graham, which caused me to actually physically cringe while writing...

    So.... Yer saying it's cringe-worthy to imagine Graham in a diaper???

    THERE's a mental image for ya'all!! :D

    Michale

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    So.... Yer saying it's cringe-worthy to imagine Graham in a diaper???

    THERE's a mental image for ya'all!! :D

    "Yer a crool man, Jack Sparrow.."
    -Davy Jones, PIRATES OF THE CARRIBEAN Dead Mans Chest

    :D

    Michale

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