ChrisWeigant.com

A Big Win For Equality

[ Posted Wednesday, November 16th, 2022 – 16:26 UTC ]

Today, the United States Senate voted 62-37 to codify marriage equality into federal law, and to overturn the Defense Of Marriage Act from the 1990s which did the opposite. DOMA has already been declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, but as we've all seen, rights guaranteed by one Supreme Court can be chucked out the window by subsequent Supreme Courts. So today's vote on the Respect For Marriage Act was important, and not merely symbolic.

Gay marriage used to be a big wedge issue for the right. That's where DOMA came from in the first place, after all. It was a convenient political wedge to use against Democrats -- who were very timid about supporting gay marriage for a very long time. Please recall that Barack Obama didn't support gay marriage when he got elected in 2008 -- which wasn't all that long ago.

But support among the public has gone through an astonishing change in a relatively short period of time too. When DOMA was passed, almost 70 percent of the public did not approve of gay marriage. Now 71 percent do. The crossover -- where more people supported it than not -- happened during Obama's term. That is a jaw-dropping turnaround in public attitude. Even the Mormon church voiced support for the bill that passed today -- which is pretty astonishing as well, considering how fervently they fought against the idea for so long.

What used to be a solid Republican position on the issue ("I believe marriage should be between one man and one woman") is now increasingly untenable. Over half (55 percent) of all Republican voters now support marriage equality. And that number is just going to grow, because of the generational aspect of it. While only 30 percent of Republicans 65 years old or older support gay marriage, an astonishing 64 percent of 18-to-29 year old Republicans do. The old attitudes are dying off, quite literally.

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Republicans In Disarray

[ Posted Tuesday, November 15th, 2022 – 16:44 UTC ]

Unfortunately, that phrase doesn't have the alliteration of "Democrats in disarray," but it was tough to figure out what "R" word could work (other than "Republicans Are Revolting," which always just kind of seems self-evident to me, but I digress...), so I just went with the non-alliterative substitution. "Democrats In Disarray," of course, has become a running joke, because that is the mainstream political media's go-to headline whenever they're feeling especially lazy. It's also a joke precisely because of where we find ourselves right now -- when the Republicans are engaging in internecine warfare, the media often shrugs and doesn't pay any of it nearly the attention they do to Democratic intraparty tiffs.

But it's gotten hard to avoid, so headlines like mine are indeed showing up here and there. While the Republicans are now on the brink of wresting control from Nancy Pelosi in the House, it is far from the triumphant and sweeping victory they had all been expecting and promising. It is a massive disappointment, because their majority will be just as tight as it has been for Pelosi for the past two years. And Kevin McCarthy is nowhere near the leader Pelosi is, when it comes to herding cats. Before Pelosi's reign, Democrats were only loosely affiliated and groups of them would cross the aisle on a regular basis, in a perpetual chase of the elusive "bipartisanship" they all cherished (back then). Under Pelosi, House Democrats have been remarkable in how they stand together, both in the majority and in the minority. With the current crop of Republicans McCarthy faces an almost-impossible task, and he is simply not up to it in any way.

Consider that the radicals in the Republican House ranks have caused the last two speakers to quit in disgust. Both John Boehner and Paul Ryan tried to get the Tea Partiers to see reason, but in the end they failed to do so. Now the radical faction is stronger and much more outspoken -- and much more inclined to resist any attempts at compromise. This is going to leave McCarthy in the same position Ryan and Boehner were in, because the only way he'll get anything done is to get a handful of reasonable Republicans to vote with the Democrats to pass the necessary bills to keep the government running. Which will, of course, enrage the radicals.

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Trump's Next Act

[ Posted Monday, November 14th, 2022 – 16:29 UTC ]

Donald Trump is, in a word, performative. His entire political career has been one long installation of performance art. He lives to see good television ratings. It is his own personal measure of his self-worth. And tomorrow night, he'll be unveiling his next act.

It's far from being a secret what this act will consist of. Tomorrow night, Donald Trump will announce his third bid for the United States presidency. He has wanted to make this announcement for months now, but has so far been talked into delaying it by his advisors. Tomorrow, the delay will be over and Trump will throw his hat back into the ring.

The effect of Trump's announcement will be multifaceted. But what it all really boils down to is this: everyone will be talking about it. Here I am talking about it, and it's not even going to happen for another whole day. Trump will once again occupy the center ring under the American political big top.

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Friday Talking Points -- Whew!

[ Posted Friday, November 11th, 2022 – 19:13 UTC ]

Well, that was a better week than we expected, we have to say.

The 2022 midterm elections are now over (although the counting still isn't) and the one big takeaway is that either Republicans dropped the ball or Democrats ran excellent campaigns all over the country. Or maybe some combination of the two. The red wave simply did not appear as predicted. A "blue breakwater" turned it back.

This is downright historic. As of this writing, the outcome is still in doubt -- control of both chambers of Congress is still up in the air. But no matter how the remaining races turn out, Democrats managed an expectations-defying performance.

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GOP Ready To Dump Trump?

[ Posted Thursday, November 10th, 2022 – 16:27 UTC ]

Reasonable Republicans now have the best chance they have had in almost two years to reclaim their party and realign it so that it is not in perpetual orbit around the whims of one unhinged man -- a man whose track record of losing elections grew much larger this Tuesday. Donald Trump is now being called the thing he fears most -- a loser -- by members of his own party. The right-wing media is even jumping on the "Dump Trump" bandwagon. The next few weeks could be pivotal for the ultimate direction of the Republican Party, in fact. It could either recede into the swamp of fawning obsequiousness towards Trump (that it has been stuck in since 2016), or it could decide that a brand new direction is what is needed right now.

A lot might depend on whether Trump actually follows through with his wink-and-nudge promise that he's going to declare his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race next Tuesday. Reportedly, he even had to be talked out of jumping in the race the day before the midterms, since to Trump, everything is always (or should always be) about Trump. To nobody's surprise, he even laid out the formulation he wanted the party to follow, no matter what happened in the midterms: "Well, I think if they win I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all."

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Take Two

[ Posted Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 – 16:07 UTC ]

That headline could be applicable to today's post-election situation in a number of ways, I suppose. As a movie director's cry (i.e. "We're starting take number two!"), since we are going to have a Senate race runoff election on December 6th in Georgia. It could be read literally, since at this point both parties need to take two of the three uncalled races in order to achieve a Senate majority. Or just as: "Take two and call me in the morning," the classic punchline to a doctor joke -- because it will probably take quite a while to get all the results in even before the December runoff. Or maybe even as: "I did a double-take when I heard the first results," that could work too. The funniest thing I heard during the extended post-election period in 2020 came out of the mouth of a babe -- some parent's toddler (this was passed along to me as an anecdote) said they were tired of watching television with Mommy and Daddy because "all they wanted to watch was The Map Show." And it looks like we'll all have at least a few more mornings of checking in with The Map Show before we know what Congress is really going to look like in January.

 

The Senate

Technically, four Senate races haven't been called yet, but in Alaska the only thing in doubt is which Republican is going to win. It has adopted a "top-four" ranked-choice slate from their new "jungle primary" system, which left one MAGAfied Trump-endorsed Republican (Kelly Tshibaka) at (all numbers are "as of this writing," of course) 44.4 percent, while incumbent Lisa Murkowski is pulling in 42.7 percent. The Democrat in the race is below 10 percent, but neither of the Republicans has hit the magic 50-percent-plus-one mark, so it will go into the at least the second round of the ranked-choice votes. Murkowski's still got an excellent chance of winning, but either way it'll leave the seat in the Republicans' column.

This means that the Senate split now stands -- with all the races called last night or today plus Alaska -- at Republicans 49, Democrats 48. Three states remain outstanding: Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Both parties need two of these three to assure control of the chamber.

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Go Vote!

[ Posted Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 – 14:14 UTC ]

At this point, there's only one thing left to say:

I Voted

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

Stress Test

[ Posted Monday, November 7th, 2022 – 16:06 UTC ]

The American system of holding elections is about to go through a stress test. I saw this term in the headline of a Washington Post piece today and had to agree it was the correct term to use. A stress test, whether for a piece of software or a new gizmo, is essentially the quality assurance/quality control people beating the living daylights out of it until it crumbles. For online software, this might mean simulating millions of people trying to access it simultaneously (see: Obamacare marketplace website rollout). For a new doodad, it might mean dropping it from increasing heights until it shatters when it hits. The whole idea is to push beyond the limits to find out the breaking point, one way or another.

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Friday Talking Points -- Get Out And Vote!

[ Posted Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 16:17 UTC ]

Some weeks, we pre-empt our own talking points here and just deliver a rant (because sometimes the circumstances seem to almost require it). This week, however, we're going to pre-empt the entire Friday Talking Points column. For some reason, we just don't think handing out awards to Democrats (good and bad) or providing talking points is the important thing, this week. At this point, the Democratic talking points are kind of set in stone; new ones wouldn't do much good with such little time between now and Election Day.

America will head to the polls next Tuesday, and the portents do seem rather ominous. In the early-morning hours, a full eclipse of the moon will be visible coast to coast -- or a "blood moon" as it is sometimes called (because it is going to turn blood-red). Anyone susceptible to superstition and reading omens has got to be a little concerned by that, right?

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What Has Changed In The Past Two Years

[ Posted Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 – 15:47 UTC ]

Two years ago today, we were all glued to our television sets to find out who had won the 2020 presidential election. We didn't find out that night, of course, we had to wait days and days before the final results were in: Joe Biden had decisively beaten Donald Trump, with the exact same Electoral College split as happened in 2016 -- an election Trump had always liked to refer to as "a landslide."

Since then, Trump stopped merely previewing his Big Lie and instead made it his monomania -- because the one thing he cares more about than anything else in this life is that he is never called "a loser." If Biden had somehow won, that must have somehow meant "the election was rigged," because no other answer was acceptable to his planetary-sized ego.

And we have all paid the price for that narcissistic obsession ever since. It culminated (to date) with an insurrectionist takeover of the United States Capitol on January 6th, 2021 -- a date which will indeed live in infamy in American history. The violent mob wanted to hang the vice president for not somehow magically assuming powers he was not entitled to, in order to stop the official count of the Electoral College's votes and somehow hand the election to Trump -- even though he had clearly lost.

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