ChrisWeigant.com

Program Note

[ Posted Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 – 17:28 UTC ]

Sorry, there will be no column today. I had to spend a major part of the afternoon cleaning up and repairing some minor storm damage. Don't worry, we only got rain and wind (the snow was up on the mountains) and we weren't even hit particularly badly where we live, but some stuff did get blown over and had to be dealt with. I apologize for the service interruption and never fear there'll be a new column up here tomorrow. Hope everyone else is weathering the winter storms well too... stay safe out there!

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

The Biden Conundrum

[ Posted Monday, February 27th, 2023 – 17:15 UTC ]

Game theory is a rather fun branch of mathematics that tries to predict the odds of having what you want happen, when stacked up against other rational agents. I've never studied it formally myself, but it's always intrigued me. The classic example (to me, anyway, and which I am not going to bother to explain) is that the contestant on Let's Make A Deal should always change their choice (of Doors Number One, Two, or Three) after the host reveals one of the prize packages, because doing so actually doubles the odds of getting the best prize package instead of the booby prize. Those are the sorts of puzzles it tries to figure out -- like what is the best amount of money to bet at the end of Jeopardy! (depending on how much you and your opponents have at the time). But both of those are examples with easily-quantifiable odds, which aren't always (in real life, outside of game shows) all that easy to accurately predict. So I'm using the term rather loosely here, not in a strict "figure the odds" mathematical way -- more of "gaming it out" than formal game theory. But the Biden conundrum has certainly been getting a lot of attention lately, so I thought I'd take a shot at playing the game too. Or, at the very least, outlining it in a rational fashion for everyone else to play too.

The problem, in a nutshell: Joe Biden says he's the best Democrat to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. He might just be right about that, too -- he certainly is the only person who can provably make such a claim. He made the same claim back in 2020 and the "electability argument" certainly convinced a whole bunch of Democratic primary voters to test it out. Which worked out just fine, in the general election. So to give him the benefit of the doubt, let's say he is the best person Democrats could put up against Trump.

But what happens if Trump loses? What happens if he doesn't win the Republican nomination? Well, then you've got Joe Biden running against a Republican who is most likely: (1) not as unhinged and acerbic as Donald Trump, and (2) younger than either Trump or Biden. Perhaps even a lot younger. The big question: if this comes to pass, will Biden still be the best Democrat to carry the party's banner in 2024? Or will Biden's advanced age become a key factor that convinces swing voters to swing to the Republican side?

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Friday Talking Points -- Off The Rails

[ Posted Friday, February 24th, 2023 – 18:28 UTC ]

Trains were at the heart of the political scene this week. Internationally, President Joe Biden took a 10-hour train ride to get to Kyiv in person (which he must have thoroughly enjoyed, knowing his general love of trains). Domestically, the trainwreck in Ohio became sidetracked into a political circus.

Biden's surprise appearance in Ukraine had an enormous effect on the goodwill and fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, from all reports. An American president visiting a war zone at great personal risk resonated with the populace, and Biden once again reaffirmed American support for the brave resolve the Ukrainians have felt for one year and counting. The anniversary of the start of the war was precisely the time to make such a journey, and Biden followed it up with a very fiery speech in Poland reminding Vladimir Putin once again of what a colossal mistake he made with his decision to invade. America is on track (sorry, had to throw in a train metaphor) in fighting Russian aggression with the Ukrainians.

Down in East Palestine, Ohio, things went completely off the rails... again. They started with a tragic industrial accident. Then they got a whole bunch of indifference, from both high-ranking government officials and from the mainstream media. Then Republicans sensed an opening and spewed an inundation of politics all over the disaster. This quickly led to a media circus descending on the small town and now they've become no more than a photo op for both sides. It's hard not to feel sorry for the inhabitants of this town, in other words, because they didn't ask for any of this to happen.

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Kill The Blue Slip!

[ Posted Thursday, February 23rd, 2023 – 16:19 UTC ]

Changes to Senate rules and traditions tend to happen somewhat incrementally. Democrats are currently considering taking another step towards making the Senate actually functional once again, and it is a step that definitely needs taking. Because it is time to kill the "blue slip" on judicial nominations, once and for good.

This is pretty esoteric stuff, so bear with me. The biggest rule change over the past three or four presidencies has been the elimination of the filibuster on judicial confirmation floor votes. Time was when every judicial nominee had to get 60 votes or they didn't become a federal judge. For most this wasn't a problem, since both parties knew the filibuster was only to be used in extreme cases. But then Republicans started blocking President Barack Obama's nominees in a big way. So Harry Reid changed the Senate rule so that filibusters could only be launched for Supreme Court nominations. He left it to Mitch McConnell to take the final step and get rid of even Supreme Court nominee filibusters. Now judicial floor votes cannot be filibustered at all.

All of this served to speed up the confirmation process. But there's another arcane Senate rule that also stands in the way of this streamlining: the "blue slip." This is, in essence, an absolute veto that any single senator can wield over judicial nominations from his or her home state. Here's how it works, from a recent Associated Press article:

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Dobbs Continues To Drive Turnout

[ Posted Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023 – 16:06 UTC ]

The overturning of Roe v. Wade was seen, by Republicans, as the end of a very long road. Democrats, however, saw it as a call to action and just the start of their own long road, back to full rights for all American women. And the backlash to the Supreme Court removing rights from women continues to drive turnout at the ballot box. A primary election in Wisconsin last night showed how powerful the issue still is for voters, and it may have bigger repercussions than most elections since the office at stake is a state supreme court justice. Currently the court has a 4-3 conservative majority, so if a liberal were to be elected it would change the balance of judicial power in the state.

In Wisconsin, judicial races have to be non-partisan, meaning nobody runs with a political party identification, so instead they run as a "conservative" or a "liberal." Everyone knows who is on which side of the aisle, even without a "D" or "R" next to their name. Wisconsin ran an open primary, with all candidates on the same ballot where only the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election, which will be held in a month and a half. Four candidates ran, two conservative and two liberal. One of each will advance to the general, but things are definitely looking good for the liberal.

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Free The Signs!

[ Posted Tuesday, February 21st, 2023 – 17:43 UTC ]

 

Sign, sign
Everywhere a sign
Blockin' out the scenery
Breakin' my mind
Do this, don't do that
Can't you read the sign?

-- Signs, Five Man Electrical Band

 

I begin today with a rather anti-sign song lyric, which is somewhat counterproductive since I am actually about to take a very pro-sign stance. But when it gets right down to it, there just aren't a whole lot of songs about signs to choose from, so we must make do with what we've got. This is also an unusual column for me to write since I will be inveighing against the heavy hand of the federal government, which I usually save for my thoughts on the federal War On Drugs and a few other choice issues.

I'm sorry, am I being obscure? Am I leaving the reader somewhat lost? In need of a... well... sign, perhaps? Well, this column may have a tendency to aimlessly wander all over the countryside a bit, but here's what began this journey, for me:

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Celebrating Jimmy Carter

[ Posted Monday, February 20th, 2023 – 16:55 UTC ]

Former President Jimmy Carter has entered his final days. He has checked in to a hospice to live out his remaining time and, according to an official statement, has refused "additional medical care." So it seemed entirely appropriate to use this year's Presidents' Day to honor him. Carter was an extraordinary man and no matter what opinion you have about his presidency, he has set the absolute gold standard for doing good works as an ex-president -- that much is beyond dispute.

Carter began his career in the military, and while few remember it now he was not just a submarine officer (which is impressive enough) but a nuclear engineer to boot. He was heavily involved in the program which created nuclear-powered submarines and might have been given the command of one of the first of these to be commissioned, but outside events intervened.

I learned about the first of these in a Washington Post article today. The article begins:

The world was in the grip of the Cold War in 1952 when a nuclear reactor began melting down.

That reactor, located at Chalk River Laboratories in Ontario, had suffered an explosion on Dec. 12. Radioactive material had escaped into the atmosphere, and millions of gallons of radioactive water flooded into the reactor's basement. Thankfully, no one was injured, but the Canadians needed help to disassemble the reactor's damaged core.

The United States sent 28-year-old Jimmy Carter.

This wasn't a random choice. Carter had been trained in atomic energy and was an expert on nuclear engineering. What other president can claim such lofty educational credentials? Certainly none that have held the office since Carter's time. The article goes into detail about what Carter had to do to repair the reactor:

In 1952, Carter was selected to join an elite team to help develop the Navy's first nuclear submarines. Once he had trained his crew and the submarine was constructed, Carter was to be the commanding officer of the USS Seawolf, according to Carter in his 1976 book Why Not the Best?: The First 50 Years.

Then the partial meltdown happened, and Lt. Carter was one of the few people on the planet authorized to go inside a nuclear reactor.

Carter and his two dozen men were sent to Canada to help, along with other Canadian and American service members. Because of the intensity of radiation, a human could spend only 90 seconds in the damaged core, even while wearing protective gear.

. . .

"Outfitted with white protective clothes, we descended into the reactor and worked frantically for our allotted time," he wrote.

In one minute and 29 seconds, Carter had absorbed the maximum amount of radiation a human can withstand in a year.

The mission was successful. The damaged core was removed. Within two years, it had been rebuilt and was back up and running.

Carter then missed his chance to command a nuclear submarine because his father died. Carter left active duty in the Navy to go back home and run the family farm instead. Which is how most people remember him before he became president -- as a peanut farmer.

Ironically perhaps, the nation's worst nuclear accident (at Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania) happened on Carter's watch. He formed a presidential commission to investigate the accident, but if Carter hadn't been president he probably could have served on such a commission himself. He had to walk a tightrope politically on the issue, since the "No Nukes" movement was a growing force in Democratic politics at the time (the anti-nuclear movement was against nuclear weapons and nuclear energy, for those who didn't live through the period). Even though the media made a fuss about it at the time, Carter visited T.M.I. right after the accident and stood 1,000 feet away from the partially-melted core, where he got (as a contemporary newspaper article put it) "less than one-third the radiation of a passenger on a commercial jetliner flying through the stratosphere."

Carter's presidency was a rocky one and he only served one term, getting defeated by Ronald Reagan in an electoral landslide in 1980. But Carter truly began to shine as a humanitarian in his post-presidency. He established the Carter Center to promote human rights around the world -- work which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. He worked on peace, monitoring elections, and eradicating disease worldwide. But his most visible presence was his support for Habitat For Humanity, a Christian organization devoted to building homes for poor people both here and in dozens of other countries as well. Carter even taught Sunday school in his local church. Jimmy Carter didn't completely fade from the political scene after leaving office, the way that some ex-presidents do, but he did limit himself to mostly commenting from the sidelines.

All in all, Carter showed compassion and a basic respect for humanity in a way that no other occupant of the Oval Office ever has during their post-presidency. Most either play a lot of golf (and to be clear, that's not a slam on Donald Trump -- in fact, I am thinking of a whole bunch of presidents from Dwight D. Eisenhower forward), or develop a hobby, or just relax and enjoy life. To be fair, for most there is a certain amount of charity and doing good works, but nothing on the scale that Carter managed.

At 98 years old, James Earl Carter Junior will go down in the history books for setting several longevity records: longest-lived president in American history, longest-married president, and the longest post-presidency period. Some of those records may never be broken. But it is my humble guess that Carter will be remembered above all else for just being a decent human being. And that's a pretty good legacy for any politician to end up with, you've got to admit.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

Friday Talking Points -- Republican Woes

[ Posted Friday, February 17th, 2023 – 19:19 UTC ]

We have to begin today with a look at the woes of the Republican Party. Because, when you think about it, why not?

The most amusing news (speaking from across the political aisle) all has to do with the Republican Party trying to come to grips with another presidential nominating process with Donald Trump as the 800-pound elephant in the room. Most of the party establishment would dearly love to see literally anyone else win the nomination than Trump, but they also fear the prospect of Trump going rogue if he doesn't win and launching his own third-party bid.

So the bigwigs and the deep-pocket GOP donors are all planning their strategy, which aims to learn the lessons from 2016, when Trump won the nomination mostly by getting only around one-third of the votes in each state's primary. While GOP voters rejected Trump by a 2-to-1 margin, the "2" in that equation was splintered between over a dozen other contenders. So this time around, the bigwigs and the big-money types are going to try to strongarm whichever candidates they wind up endorsing into agreeing to drop out early if they don't catch fire. The only problem with this wonderful scheme is what will happen if different groups of bigwigs and donors settle on different "not-Trump" candidates? If there are three or four of them who are backed by tens of millions of dollars, are the people who invested so much money in them really going to say to themselves: "Well, we spent a lot, but he's not going to win, so let's just pull the plug and start backing another candidate"? This remains to be seen.

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GOP Hasn't Changed Their Tune Since Ronald Reagan Entered Politics

[ Posted Thursday, February 16th, 2023 – 16:05 UTC ]

I'm going to end this column today with an excerpt from the archives, but I have to explain why I'm re-running it first. Because recently I have been sent into howls of laughter at the new Republican complaint: "How could you possibly accuse us of attacking Social Security and Medicare?!? What an absurd notion!" Not just peals of laughter, but also a Shakespearean-class eyeroll as well: The party doth protest too much, methinks.

Republicans, apparently, think the American public has forgotten the last 60-90 years. You know -- the time period when the GOP was downright proud of attacking first Social Security and then Medicare and Medicaid as some sort of communist plot to kill American freedom. And no, as you'll see, that is not an exaggeration or any sort of hyperbole. They really said this stuff on a regular basis, back when Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid were all being debated by American politicians.

They aren't quite as hysterical about it these days, they're more apt to scream: "Socialism! Everybody run!" at newly-proposed programs from Democrats. But they have indeed been trying to "reform" Social Security and Medicare for the entire time that I have been alive. Their most recent attack on Social Security was to try to "privatize" it all. That, thankfully, went over like a lead balloon. For Medicare and Social Security, they want to hike the retirement age and/or cut benefits.

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Haley Announces -- So Who's Next?

[ Posted Wednesday, February 15th, 2023 – 16:05 UTC ]

Nikki Haley became the second officially-announced presidential candidate from either of the two major American political parties yesterday. Initially she had teased that her big announcement would be today, but she must have been overcome with the Valentine's Day spirit or something, so she jumped the gun. Haley and Donald Trump are now the entire "officially-announced" field for 2024. Which immediately leads me to wonder: "Who's next?"

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