ChrisWeigant.com

Dialing Down Expectations For Biden's Agenda

[ Posted Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 17:23 UTC ]

While Democrats are rightly excoriating President Donald Trump for his extended hissy fit over the election results (who's hiding in his basement now, Mister President?), they should also be in the process of dialing down expectations for what Joe Biden will be able to accomplish as president. Because in all likelihood, Democrats are not going to win both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff elections. It could happen, but even if it does it will still mean lowered expectations for what comes next.

I realize this is not a fun thing to contemplate, but it is the reality of the situation. Let's say Democrats do win both Senate races in Georgia, as a best-case scenario. They will then have 50 senators caucusing with them, and with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, they will gain control of the chamber. But this puts them in a situation where any one Democratic senator can upset the applecart with his or her vote. Remember Joe Lieberman? That's what Democrats will face for each and every vote. And there are some rather conservative Democrats in the Senate (Joe Manchin immediately springs to mind). So grand plans to get rid of the legislative filibuster or tinker with the Supreme Court are almost certainly not going to succeed.

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Politics Is Sickening

[ Posted Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 17:47 UTC ]

Let me be clear from the start -- that headline is not meant to be metaphorical in any way. And I'm not even being figurative or quasi-metaphorical, in the "I get sick to my stomach when I think about politics" sort of way. Also, this title does not refer to the presidential election or what's going on in Washington at all. Sadly enough, that headline is meant to be taken completely literally. Because politics is sickening people across the country, period. On average, the chances of you catching COVID-19 are now clearly greater if you live in a red state than if you live in a blue state.

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Soothing The Presidential Ego

[ Posted Tuesday, November 10th, 2020 – 17:56 UTC ]

As if we weren't already in Bizarro World, America is now going through a period where the national government has dedicated itself to one goal above all else: soothing President Trump's fragile and bruised ego. This is beyond pathetic, it's approaching being downright dangerous.

People are even admitting that this is precisely what is going on. Anonymously, to be sure, because who wants to bring down the Toddler-in-Chief's wrath? Here is the most extraordinary quote from a "senior Republican official" I think I've ever heard:

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A Bright New Frabjous Day

[ Posted Monday, November 9th, 2020 – 17:01 UTC ]

The most amusing thing I heard last week was a possible-apocryphal story about a toddler who complained that all Mommy and Daddy wanted to do anymore was "watch the Map Show on television." But finally, after staring at that map all week long, on Saturday morning we all got the good news, as both Pennsylvania and Nevada were called for Joe Biden. Whether or not a news organization had called Arizona suddenly didn't even matter, because Biden was over the top with or without it. And 75 million people (and still counting) breathed the first big sigh of relief they have in four very long years, as the "Map Show" came to a glorious end. Donald Trump's presidency is not quite over yet, but the end is now clearly in sight.

Trump instantly became the two biggest things he truly hates: a loser, and irrelevant. No longer do we have to even care what he tweeted overnight when we wake up in the morning. Who cares what lunatic conspiracy theory he's ranting about now? Because it's almost over. It just doesn't matter that much anymore.

It's like a gigantic weight has been lifted. For the next four years, we will have a sane and non-psychopathic human being as president. No longer will parents have to explain to small children why the leader of our country is allowed to get away with embarrassing and degrading tweets that would get any of them kicked off Twitter in a heartbeat. No longer will science be held hostage to politics. No longer will the entire federal government ever have to contort itself to explain why what Trump said is somehow reality (when it so clearly is not).

Instead, even people within Trump's inner ranks are now admitting that all the lawsuits they're currently filing are no more than a sad attempt to make Trump feel better about losing. That's nothing short of pathetic, when you think about it. Trump is using the American legal system as nothing short of a security blanket. Actual lawsuits are being filed (and promptly laughed out of court) for the sole purpose of making President Linus Van Pelt feel better. About losing. Linus, at least, would have had a relevant Bible quote for the situation (probably something from the Old Testament), but that's obviously beyond Trump's meager abilities.

Trump has actually been pretty subdued -- for Trump -- ever since Election Day. He's ripped out a few deranged tweets, and given two equally-deranged appearances before the cameras, but that's not even par for Trump's course, really. It's been almost a week, after all. Twitter is mercilessly slapping on warning labels and blocking Trump's conspiratorial tweets with abandon. Jim Carrey called Trump the one thing he hates on Saturday Night Live -- a "loo-oo-oo-oo--ooooser." And Trump didn't even bother to explode in a rant against him. For Trump, this is indeed pretty subdued. He fired Mike Esper today, just to make himself feel better, but at this point it hardly matters. He can purge his inner ranks to his heart's content, but it really only means they'll miss two extra months' pay, since Joe Biden will be sweeping all of them into history's dustbin very soon now.

Joe Biden is already looking pretty presidential, by way of contrast. He gave a victory speech (finally!) on Saturday night that went over well, and then this morning he announced the formation of his COVID-19 transition task force, so he'll have a solid and detailed plan in place when he takes office in January. Even if Trump fires Dr. Anthony Fauci, he'll have a place to go, in other words. Biden did -- in one announcement -- what the nation has been desperately hoping for from Donald Trump since about February. Biden is assembling the experts, creating a plan of action, and preparing to deploy the full might of the federal government to fight this pandemic as competently as humanly possible. This plan will not take into account which party the governor of each state is from, because politics has no place in such an emergency. In short, Biden showed more competent leadership in one announcement than Trump has shown in nine whole months. And this was just the introductory announcement, mind you.

Biden will no doubt continue to act and be presidential in his upcoming statements to the press, and the entire focus of the political world is going to be on things like his cabinet choices and what executive orders he's going to sign on his first day in office (to instantly overturn all the worst ones Trump has issued during his single term). America won't immediately get back to normal, but we're at least now headed towards normalcy instead of further and further away from it. That's a welcome change indeed.

Meanwhile, it's a pretty safe assumption that Trump will continue to throw tantrums (both public and private) about his loss. But less and less attention will be paid. Trump will no longer be able to magically make himself the lead story on the news each night with a single tweet. Instead, people are just going to start shrugging their shoulders and saying: "Whatever...."

Trump will indeed make a few final headlines, when he finally gets around to realizing he has lost and that no amount of flailing around on the floor and screaming is going to change it. He'll likely begin issuing a tidal wave of pardons, starting with (perhaps) himself and (definitely) all his family members. He will also almost certainly pardon all his cronies and minions who went to jail -- but didn't turn on Trump. Michael Cohen, however, probably won't be one of them.

Donald Trump is fading, even within the Republican Party. Mitch McConnell is now exactly what he's always wanted to be -- the most powerful Republican in Washington. The real focus within the GOP is going to shift very soon now to all the 2024 hopefuls. My educated guess is that there will probably be at least two dozen Republicans who throw their hat in the presidential ring. Many of them will prudently wait until at least after the 2022 midterms to fully engage in the race, but you can already see a few others who have essentially started their 2024 campaigns (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and possibly Lindsey Graham). For now, they're staunchly defending Trump's conspiracy theories. For now. But pretty soon they'll be running solely for themselves.

We all woke up yesterday to a bright new day. No longer will America be continually embarrassed by our own president. No longer will presidential ego be the most important variable in any policy equation. Viciousness and mean-spiritedness are about to exit the Oval Office for good. In their place we will all have decency and stability instead. Biden's campaign started with a big idea, and he'll now be able to work every day to achieve it: restoring the soul of America. And that is indeed a much brighter future to contemplate than another four years like the last four.

The best commentary I've read on how the majority of the country felt Saturday morning when Pennsylvania went blue came from one of the commenters on my site. Here's the whole stanza from the quoted poem (Lewis Carroll's "Jabberwocky"), because I can't think of a better way to end today's column:

"And hast thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!"
He chortled in his joy.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

Where We Now Stand

[ Posted Friday, November 6th, 2020 – 17:49 UTC ]

I need to begin this with a notification. I am not even going to attempt a regular Friday Talking Points column today. We're so far from normal that it just wouldn't work -- that's what I decided when sitting down to write, at any rate.

Where we stand as a nation right now is that Joe Biden is almost certainly going to become the next president of the United States. Donald Trump is almost certainly not going to have a second term in office. We're only "almost" certain because the vote count in several states is so close that they haven't officially been called for one candidate or the other yet.

But the writing is on the wall, at this point. As I write, Biden is ahead in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Trump is ahead in North Carolina and Alaska. But Trump needed pretty much all of these states to win. Biden only needs Pennsylvania, or a combination of any two of the others. And he's currently ahead in four of them.

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A Long-Term Look At The Red/Blue Trends On The Map

[ Posted Thursday, November 5th, 2020 – 17:51 UTC ]

As we all sit around refreshing our browsers to see if there are any further ballot count updates in Pennsylvania and Georgia today, I thought it was worth taking a longer view of that map we've all been staring at. I wrote about this a month ago, but I have some further thoughts I'd like to share about the long-term trends in states moving along the red/purple/blue spectrum.

What really spurred me to write about it again so soon was the dawning realization that even though it now seems that Joe Biden has rebuilt the vaunted "big blue wall," I think it would be far too optimistic to think that this is any sort of lasting trend which will put the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania firmly back in the Democrats' column for a long time to come. But more on that in a moment.

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Here We Go Again

[ Posted Wednesday, November 4th, 2020 – 16:52 UTC ]

Here we go again. It's like we all woke up today in the year 2000. Lawsuits are being filed, votes are still being counted, and several key states have not been called yet. There is no winner, although as of this writing it certainly seems like Biden's got a clear edge. But, just like in 2000, that can always change.

The good news (such as it is) is that so far Team Trump hasn't come up with any single example of even suspicious behavior, much less outright wrongdoing. If they had, you can bet that we'd all have heard about it by now. Instead, they are left filing lawsuits that the Pennsylvania attorney general characterized as "more of a partisan document than a legal one." Believing you won and tweeting about it is one thing, but proving you won in court is a lot harder to do, in other words.

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Closing Time Schedule

[ Posted Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 15:44 UTC ]

I'm not even going to try to write an article today, because nobody would likely even read it. We're all just waiting for the results to start appearing anyway, so I thought I'd file this as a placeholder column so we can all start fresh down in the comments section tonight.

I got the following list of poll closure times from the Washington Post, which has a much more detailed list, but I just wanted to post the main information as a summary. Caveats: Other sources I checked differed on whether a few states would report some results an hour earlier (such as Oregon), and already there are a handful of counties here and there which have been granted extended polling hours. But other than that, this list should do. And, just to show everyone how much more pleasant it is to watch the results out here, all times are given in Pacific Standard Time (which is when I'll be seeing them).

Without further ado, here is the basic list of the schedule of state poll closing times. "Partial Results" means there are some counties which close early, and some which close late. Most often (but not in all cases), this is due to a time zone line splitting the state. "Completed Results" is the follow-up to Partial Results. And "Full Results" means that polls across the entire state close at the same time.

 

3:00 P.S.T.

Partial Results

Indiana
Kentucky

 

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Final Electoral Math -- My 2020 Picks

[ Posted Monday, November 2nd, 2020 – 18:55 UTC ]

Here we are, the end of a very long and exhausting road. Election Day is tomorrow. But 100 million Americans may have already voted before Tuesday even dawns. Voting in the time of COVID-19 has been just as different as everything else we've been living through.

One general comment before we begin. This year has seen a "get out the vote" effort that absolutely dwarfs anything seen previously. Americans have been reminded not just to vote but to have a plan for voting for months now, and from some very unusual sources. A few days ago, I actually saw a public service "Go vote!" television ad featuring Cheech and Chong. Younger readers may not comprehend just how mindbendingly weird this is. A more up-to-date reference (although still somewhat dated, these days) would be how jarring it would be to see a "Go vote!" P.S.A. from Beavis and Butthead. Cheech and Chong -- while both blatantly smoking joints -- do a short little pro-vote comedy routine using their signature stoner humor. I never thought I would see such a thing in a million years, and yet this year it's barely even noticed. That's how strange this election has been.

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Friday Talking Points -- The Scariest Election Ever

[ Posted Friday, October 30th, 2020 – 17:30 UTC ]

We'll get to explaining that title further (as if it really needs it), down in the talking points section of our program. And happy Hallowe'en-eve to everyone ("Hallowe'en'en," maybe?).

The homestretch of the 2020 election has been rather bizarre to watch, since President Donald Trump has made his closing argument: "Pandemic? What pandemic? I don't see any pandemic anywhere!"

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