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America now awaits the results of the F.B.I.'s new investigation into Brett Kavanaugh's truthfulness with bated breath. Will they uncover anything? Will they provide clarity? Will they prove he was telling the truth or blatantly lying? We've all got until Friday to wonder what will be in their final report.
When we thought about what to write in today's article, we had a pretty good idea of what we were going to say. But then, as sometimes happens, events overtook us. As of this writing, the Senate Judiciary Committee has now voted to recommend Brett Kavanaugh to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. However, while Senator Jeff Flake did vote along party lines, he also apparently demanded something in return -- which was precisely the thing Democrats have been calling for all along: reopening the F.B.I.'s background investigation into Kavanaugh, due to all of the new accusations against him back when he was a student. Almost immediately, Senator Lisa Murkowski backed up Flake and said she too supported letting the F.B.I. do their job before she would be willing to vote to confirm him. Since the Republicans only enjoy a 51-49 majority, two defections is all it would take for Kavanaugh not to be confirmed in the final vote.
This article's title comes from the definition of post-apocalyptic: after the apocalypse. This continues the metaphor which started when then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went with what was called at the time "the nuclear option" -- changing the Senate's rules so that all judicial appointments below the level of the Supreme Court could no longer be filibustered. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell later launched his own retaliatory nuclear strike on the Supreme Court confirmations. So, with both sides having "dropped a nuke" each, we are now in a political landscape that can only be described as post-apocalyptic.
Brett Kavanaugh now stands accused of sexual misconduct by two women. The minefield Republicans already had to cross to get him confirmed to the Supreme Court just got a whole lot more politically explosive, in other words. "He-said/she-said" has now become: "He said/they said." And the lawyer for Stormy Daniels has hinted that he's got a third bombshell to drop into this fray (although, to be fair, he has made promises of future revelations before with no actual followup, so perhaps he's just trying to leverage the news to his and his client's advantage in some fashion).
Brett Kavanaugh was supposed to have been confirmed by the Senate to a seat on the Supreme Court by now. That was the original plan, at any rate. But this plan was blown out of the water last Friday when Christine Blasey Ford came forward and publicly accused him of attempting to rape her when the two were in high school. The fallout still continues, and will continue to do so for some time to come.
[Editor's Note: At least once a year, usually during the silly season in August, I indulge in writing a summer daydream article. I am probably "borrowing" this theme from the comic strip Doonesbury, I fully admit, but when the political news is slow and the weather's hot sometimes it's fun to just indulge your inner "what if..." and spin it in a pleasant direction, just for the heck of it. Today, I choose to do so once again, because it would be so supremely justified. And, yes, "supremely" is the only possible term to use, really.]
Donald Trump, in the past week, has seen his former campaign manager Paul Manafort flip on him and agree to a plea deal with Bob Mueller, watched as his Supreme Court nominee's vote had to be postponed because of a sexual assault charge levied against him, and must surely by now have heard that Stormy Daniels is about to release a new book in which she describes both Trump's genitalia and his sexual performance in rather disparaging terms. Throughout it all, though, Trump hasn't tweeted about any of it. In fact, he's been strangely subdued for days.
We are all about to see a hypothetical scenario many have wondered about actually become reality. The hypothetical situation can be stated as: "In the age of #MeToo, how would the Anita Hill accusations against Clarence Thomas have played out differently?" Because we've now got another Supreme Court judicial nominee who has been accused of sexual misconduct during his confirmation process. What happens next is (as of this writing) uncertain, but it appears that the Senate committee handling his confirmation hearings is going to be forced to address the controversy in one way or another.
Convicted felon Paul Manafort pleaded guilty today to two additional serious federal felonies, one of which was conspiracy to defraud the United States government. He also had to pony up tens of millions of dollars' worth of real estate, because one of the frauds he perpetrated was avoiding paying $15 million in federal taxes by money laundering. The biggest news, however, wasn't Manafort pleading guilty to his ninth and tenth felonies, but the fact that to get a plea deal he had to agree to cooperate with Bob Mueller's investigation. This is what he's been fighting against doing all along, so it is big news.
One of the best indicators of how midterm elections will turn out is the current president's approval rating. If he's got high job approval ratings from the public, his party can be expected to do well; sometimes even breaking historical norms. If, however, the president's job approval rating is low, then his party usually suffers in the midterms. This tracks closer than many other indicators that numbers wonks watch, such as the state of the economy or the "right track/wrong track" generic polling question. In the past two weeks -- and just two months before the 2018 midterms -- President Donald Trump's polling numbers (which were historically very low to begin with) have taken a pretty steep dive downward. Republican candidates for office are reportedly increasingly worried about this new development -- as they well should be.