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The proper response to such prognostication, at this point, is really: "It's way too early!" This is because it is, in fact, too early to predict much of anything that will be happening in 2016. It is, to borrow a favored phrase of Steve Jobs, insanely early for such speculation.
Wedgie: When a political party's "wedge" issue turns on them and instead of dividing the other party, begins to divide their own.
Usage: "Boy, the Republicans are really getting a giant wedgie on immigration, aren't they?"
Tomorrow, some of the country will vote on various things and people. Immediately thereafter, pundits will begin reading too much into "what it all means," especially in relation to the 2014 and 2016 elections. I'm personally going to remain rather skeptical, though. Because I don't think there really are any true trends which can be read into these contests, which are all local and somewhat personality-driven. Especially this year.
To put this another way, while most focused on one broken promise from President Obama this week, he actually made good on an earlier promise -- which is nothing short of astounding and deserves a lot of attention.
The hearings have started on Capitol Hill, and there will likely be plenty of fodder mined by Republicans over the awfulness of the Obamacare exchange launch for weeks to come. That much is certain, at the very least. But I can't help but wonder what the future will look like this time next year, especially on one key question: will "red" states begin to set up their own state health insurance exchanges, or will they continue to allow the federal government to run their exchanges for them?
Gallup just released a poll showing a large majority -- 58 percent -- of the American public now thinks marijuana should be fully legalized for adult recreational use. This is somewhat stunning news. The "somewhat" part is that this is really only a continuation of a decades-long trend towards acceptance in public opinion. The "stunning" part is how quickly it is now happening. In fact, it might be fair to say that we may only be a year or two away from marijuana legalization reaching a political "tipping point" from which there will be no going back. I wrote earlier this year that gay marriage can now be seen to be over this "tipping point" -- it's hard to now imagine going back to the days of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the Defense Of Marriage Act. Legalizing marijuana hasn't hit this point of no return yet... but it certainly can be glimpsed on the horizon.
I don't know about anyone else, but the image that popped into my head this week was Ted Cruz drunk in some dive of a karaoke bar, doing his version of "I Fought The Law, And The Law Won."
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
We've been in the midst of crass politics for three solid weeks now, so it doesn't seem that unbecoming to engage in some more of the same, here at the end of the shutdown/default crisis. Oh, I know, John Boehner tried to get emotional and proclaim "This is not some damn game!" but we all knew, on a certain level, that is was indeed a damn game. As well as a damn shame.
Will Republicans go the way of the Whig Party? Well, we're not really going to answer that question in any meaningful way today, we're going to instead focus on the question itself. Because this question isn't really all that apt a parallel to draw in the first place. Most people today just use "go the way of the Whig Party" as an amusing way to say "disappear as a national political party." But a truer parallel to history would be to ask the question: "Will today's Republicans revert back to being the Whig Party?" Or, perhaps: "Will the Tea Party eventually go the way of the Whig Party?"