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There is no shortage of colorful language (and memes!) being used today to describe the new Trump Tax we're all about to pay -- after having been "liberated" from, y'know, paying less money for stuff. I chose the term financial pundit Ross Gerber used to describe it for the headline, as it seemed the most descriptive:
So... is everyone ready to pay more for everything? Because that's why America elected Donald Trump president, right?
On Wednesday, Trump will be announcing sweeping tariffs on the entire rest of the world. As he likes to put it, "tariff" is his new favorite word in the dictionary. But consumers are likely to call it what it will actually be, to them: a tax. A big fat "Trump Tax" on all sorts of things consumers buy. Which will likely drive up inflation, and which will definitely hit consumers hard in the pocketbook.
In keeping with the "world turned upside-down" nature of this week, we are going to start with a few things that haven't been front-and-center, then we'll circle in to a bigger-picture take, and finally we'll fit in the big story of the week at the end.
President Elon Musk and his figurehead Donald Trump inched closer to a constitutional crisis (once again) last week. It still hasn't been fully resolved, so we've all got more of this to look forward to next week as well.
Trump invoked a law from the 1700s this week which would allow him personally to determine who gets deported. No due process, no hearing before a judge -- none of that. Just Trump deciding: "I don't like this guy, let's kick him out." The Alien Enemies Act is only supposed to apply when the United States is at war with another nation, and has only been used three times -- the most recent being the shameful internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II. But as far as Trump is concerned, it doesn't matter than we aren't at war, he just doesn't want to deal with the courts at all.
Roman Emperor Nero didn't actually fiddle while Rome burned. It's a myth. Violins (or "fiddles") wouldn't exist for another 1,500 years or so, making the very concept impossible. That's not to say Nero might not have blatantly ignored a flaming crisis, of course, it's just quibbling about the literal meaning of the maxim. Now, American Emperor-With-No-Clothes Donald Trump didn't fiddle while the country was hit by a pandemic, either. Instead, he played golf. Twice. That's right -- in the midst of a huge crisis, Trump spent the entire weekend playing golf.
While the biggest political spectacle of the week was the president's big speech to Congress, the biggest political news of the week was actually the American economy reacting to Donald Trump's on-again-off-again, now-you-see-them-now-you-don't tariffs. The whiplash began at the start of the week and hasn't fully subsided yet. Taken together with all of Trump's other disruptive wrecking balls, economists are now starting to talk about the possibility of an upcoming "Trump recession."
Is America headed for a "Trump recession" already? Economists are starting to get worried. So are consumers. And the stock market has been in a deep dive ever since the tariff threat became real this week. So the possibility now exists -- we could be headed for an economic trainwreck. And if it happens, there will be a big difference from normal business-cycle recessions, because this time the reason why it happened will be pretty obvious to everyone.
I have to begin this review with the mandatory bit of pedantry which is required every four years. Last night, President Donald Trump gave a speech to a joint session of Congress. However, it was not technically a "State Of The Union" speech, since tradition dictates you have to have been in office for a whole year before giving one of those.
Nitpickery aside, let's do a quick review of how things went last night, shall we?
It is time for Democrats to step up to the plate. President Donald Trump will address Congress and the nation tonight, and will doubtlessly boast about all the wonderful things he thinks he has been doing. In doing so, he will also doubtlessly lie about many of them in shameless fashion, since that's what he always does. But Democrats need to not get distracted and remain focused on one thing above all else. Call it a return to: "It's the economy, stupid."
So far, most Republicans have sat back and watched President Elon Musk's bull-in-a-china-shop efforts to fire people and slash budgets with glee. The whole tech-bro "move fast and break things" ideology is just fine with them, as long as the targets are parts of the federal government they have long hated -- like foreign aid or the Department of Education. But now things are about to get a little more personal for them, since the next department on the chopping block is going to be the military. The Washington Post broke the story today of what exactly this is going to mean: