Will Democrats have an opening to pick up a Senate seat next year... in Texas? Personally, I have to remain skeptical, since Texas has long been the source of perennial disappointment for Democrats who have the dream of "flipping Texas blue." It's an enticing dream, to be sure, because Texas would be incredibly pivotal in electing a Democrat back into the White House. Flipping Texas blue in the Electoral College would make it practically impossible for a Republican to put together the 270 votes needed to become president. But flipping it blue even in a Senate race (or a governor's race, for that matter) has not happened yet, despite several exciting campaigns and lots of money donated to the cause. After all, even Ted Cruz -- one of the most-disliked senators around -- managed to win re-election. So it's a stretch, at best, to imagine John Cornyn being defeated by a Democrat next year.

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If you'll check a historic calendar (which is easy enough to do), you will clearly see that there are three possible days which could validly be celebrated as marking the end of World War II. They are: August 14th, August 15th, or September 2nd. The initial announcement of the surrender of Japan was made on August 14th, in Japan. Due to the nature of time zones, this happened when it was August 15th in America already. Then the formal surrender, which happened on the deck of the battleship U.S.S. Missouri, was signed on September 2nd. The president at the time, Harry Truman, announced the United States would celebrate what was known as "V-J Day" (for "Victory over Japan Day") on September 2nd. So that would be the most likely day you'd expect any subsequent American president to announce as a new semi-holiday, since it was when World War II actually officially ended. But you'd be wrong.

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Republicans in Congress are at the "rubber meets the road" phase of constructing their new budget, where they have to put actual numbers down on paper and add them all up. The next few weeks are going to be a dizzying frenzy of dealmaking and adjustments, as differing priorities are weighed against each other. But at the heart of their plans is a big "tax cut." I put that in scare quotes because the American taxpaying public is probably not going to see it in quite the same way as the Republicans do. The public, in fact, is going to be left wondering: "Tax cut? What tax cut? I don't see a tax cut anywhere!" Which could make the whole thing a hard sell, politically.

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A legal fight in North Carolina over the 2024 election held for a seat on the state's supreme court is now officially over. After a recent ruling from a federal judge which would have shut down the effort to overturn an election (which was verified by two separate recounts), the Republican who tried to do so is now waving the white flag of surrender, saying: "I will not appeal the court's decision." This brings to an end a very dangerous legal fight that could have had implications for democracy not only in North Carolina but (had it been appealed all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court) elsewhere in America as well. In the end, a federal judge (appointed by Donald Trump, no less) upheld democracy in the face of a Republican attack on how elections are determined.

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There was some good news today for all Americans who cherish the United States Constitution. Interim U.S. Attorney for D.C. Ed Martin's nomination to be permanently confirmed for the job is in trouble. Senator Thom Tillis -- a Republican who will be facing a tough re-election fight next year in North Carolina -- has announced he will not support Martin's nomination in the Judiciary Committee. So Martin's confirmation won't even make it out of the Senate committee responsible for vetting candidates. Since no Democrat is going to vote for him, it leaves Martin with only 11 votes for and 11 against -- which is not enough to make it out of the committee.

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Donald Trump hit two milestones this past week: his first 100 days in office, and his first quarter of negative G.D.P. growth. True to form, he celebrated the first of these with a rally, while blaming the second on Joe Biden. He even tried to front-load any bad economic news in the second quarter as Biden's fault too. Oh, and for good measure, Trump expressed a desire to become the next pope. Which would probably be fine with plenty of Americans -- as long as he quits his current job in order to do so.

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Donald Trump's first 100 days of his second term as president has been a real horrorshow. I use this term deliberately, mostly because it can be used in two opposing ways... at least, if you either speak Russian or are a fan of Anthony Burgess. It can be used in the traditional English meaning of "something that is difficult to deal with or watch because it is so bad or unpleasant." It can also be used as Nadsat future-teen slang from the novel (and film) A Clockwork Orange, where it was borrowed (Anglicized) from the Russian word khorosho -- which actually means "good." So how you personally use it will depend on how you see Trump.

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Let's start with some good news today, shall we?

Donald Trump's second-term honeymoon phase now seems to officially be over. As new polling continues to roll in (in advance of his 100-day mark next week), it seems to all be telling pretty much the same story. Trump is now in a neck-and-neck race for "fastest slide into disapproval ever" -- with himself. Only one other president in modern times has seen his job approval numbers with the public go underwater this fast, and his name was also Donald Trump (in his first term). It depends on the poll, but in some he's already worse than he was at this point in 2017. No other president was even in negative territory at this point, it bears mentioning.

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There's a new poll out from the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania which has some interesting data -- interesting both for what the data says about American public opinion as well as interesting because of the specific questions that were asked. Most public opinion surveys limit themselves to a few key indicators (presidential job approval being the biggest one), but this poll seemed designed to address some pertinent current issues in much more depth.

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American politics, for better or worse, is built on a two-party system that is occasionally challenged by independent third parties, who never have much in the way of notable successes. How many members of Congress are there from the Green Party? How many did H. Ross Perot get elected when he launched the most successful third-party bid for the White House in a generation? The answer to both is, of course, "zero." Third parties can change the political conversation in major ways (and occasionally even move the "Overton Window" in a big way), but so far none of them has built up enough success to truly challenge the dominance of the Republican/Democratic dichotomy. Instead, what is much more common is one (or both) of the two major parties being dramatically changed from within.

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