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So the longest federal government shutdown in American history ended last weekend, not with a bang but a whimper. Seven Democrat senators and one Independent voted with the Republicans to reopen the government without securing the goal that Democrats had been fighting for. This has outraged many other Democrats, since it was seen as "pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory," once again.
The federal government is about to reopen once again. But as everyone gets back to work again, I have to wonder how much data has been lost and how much will be reconstructed. Specifically, how big a gap will there be in the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? One month? Two months? Three months? Hopefully the gap will be as small as possible, but it seems like we're going to miss at least one month of data on the jobs market and unemployment, with the possibility of a gap in the official inflation numbers as well.
Donald Trump has apparently woken up and realized he is getting beaten badly on a big political issue -- and one that he leaned on heavily during his last presidential campaign. So he's been complaining about Democrats hitting him on affordability since last week's election (where Republicans got spanked in pretty much every race they ran in). Trump insists that all prices are way, way down and Democrats are just lying about affordability being a big issue.
Eight Senate Democrats are leading America on a spelunking tour. They desperately point out all the wonderful natural features of the cavern to everyone, as they lead us all lower and lower beneath the ground. However, to the rest of their Democratic colleagues (and millions of Democratic voters), no natural formation or mineral oddity can distract from seeing the truth of the situation as just a handful of weak "moderates" completely caving.
This week, a major vibe shift took place in American politics. For the first time in an entire year, Democrats got up off the mat. Or maybe: they now have the wind at their backs. There are plenty of other metaphors to choose from, but the reality is that Democrats emerged stronger from the first major election since Donald Trump started his second term, and both Trump and his Republicans emerged weaker.
As the Fed chair recently put it, the American economy is now "driving in a fog." Because the federal government remains shut down, no new official monthly economic statistics are being calculated and released to the public. This lack of data will continue until roughly a month after the government gets reopened, since the people who compile the statistics have to collect the data each month before they can calculate what it all means. The gap in collecting data could continue through November, which would mean there would be no official figures released at the start of next month. The most important of these statistics are the unemployment figures and the inflation rate.
Democrats had a very good night last night. That's even an understatement -- in actual fact, Democrats had a blowout night last night, as they romped home in just about every election everywhere. One year from Donald Trump's electoral victory, the Democratic Party came back strong. What it all means for the future is anyone's guess, but for the first time in an entire year, it's better to be a Democrat than a Republican, looking towards that future.
I must begin with an apology, because once again I find that I cannot bring myself to write a new Hallowe'en column this year.
Usually, at this time of year, I try to come up with frightful tales of horror for both the left and right sides of the political divide -- which I attempt to make both humorous and also so far-fetched that they're ridiculously unbelievable. The "scare factor" is tempered by the "Oh, that could never actually happen" factor, to put it another way.
These are indeed scary times we live in. And it would be impossible for me to try to construct a nightmarish scenario for those on the left that is any more frightful than what we are living through now.
Next Tuesday is Election Day. No matter what happens in this off-off-year election, this will produce a flurry of speculation about the current state of the political landscape in America, and what it will all mean for the election that is going to happen next year, when all of the House and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot. As usual, though, drawing sweeping conclusions this far out is likely to prove laughably mistaken, since a year's time in a normal political atmosphere is still an eternity, and an entire year in the Trump era feels like an even longer time than that.
For the second month in a row, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. This move was expected, but the Fed chair is now warning that there might not be a third drop when they meet again in December. A big part of his hesitancy stems from the fact that the Fed is now essentially flying blind, because the government shutdown has caused the flow of economic data to halt. Jerome Powell used a different transportation-based metaphor to describe this, saying: "If there is a high level of uncertainty, then that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving.... What do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down. I'm not committing to that. I'm just saying it's certainly a possibility that you would say, 'We really can't see. So let's slow down.'"