Donald Trump's trade war is on the brink of going from bad to worse. Up until now, American consumers have seen the stock market tank (and go through wild swings) and are beginning to see higher prices for some of the things they buy. But all that's about to go into overdrive, as the shock to the global trading system works its way down all of the supply chains. The next big phase of this may wind up being empty shelves in the stores -- which is going to be a monumental psychological shock to consumers.

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Which brings us to Trump's strongest point, albeit one where his polling is also falling fast. On the subject of the southern border, the public does approve of what Trump has been doing. But on the larger subject of immigration, Trump is underwater in most polls, after starting out his term with those numbers in the positive ranges.

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Donald Trump's first 100 days of his second term as president has been a real horrorshow. I use this term deliberately, mostly because it can be used in two opposing ways... at least, if you either speak Russian or are a fan of Anthony Burgess. It can be used in the traditional English meaning of "something that is difficult to deal with or watch because it is so bad or unpleasant." It can also be used as Nadsat future-teen slang from the novel (and film) A Clockwork Orange, where it was borrowed (Anglicized) from the Russian word khorosho -- which actually means "good." So how you personally use it will depend on how you see Trump.

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Congress is back in Washington this week, and they'll soon be starting to put some actual numbers in their aspirational budget. This is going to involve a whole lot of intraparty struggles for Republicans, as different factions draw red lines on different issues. They've set an optimistic timeline for finishing, but it remains to be seen whether Republicans will be able to agree on all of the details in time to meet that schedule.

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Let's start with some good news today, shall we?

Donald Trump's second-term honeymoon phase now seems to officially be over. As new polling continues to roll in (in advance of his 100-day mark next week), it seems to all be telling pretty much the same story. Trump is now in a neck-and-neck race for "fastest slide into disapproval ever" -- with himself. Only one other president in modern times has seen his job approval numbers with the public go underwater this fast, and his name was also Donald Trump (in his first term). It depends on the poll, but in some he's already worse than he was at this point in 2017. No other president was even in negative territory at this point, it bears mentioning.

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As Donald Trump's second presidency approaches the 100-day mark, we should be seeing a flood of new polling on his performance so far. Today, Fox News released its own new poll, and the news is decidedly not good for Trump. And this is coming from Fox News -- which is (obviously) tough for Trump supporters to spin as some sort of liberal news outlet.

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We now live in the world of Trumponomics, which might be defined as: "It's like Groundhog Day, except every day." I should specify that this is decidedly not in the sense of the movie of the same name -- where exactly the same things happen every day -- but rather in the sense that each and every day the entire world waits to see which side of the bed Donald Trump got up on: whether he's going to say something so threatening to the economy's future that the stock markets panic, or whether he's going to walk back some previous stupid comment and the stock market will recover a little bit.

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There's a new poll out from the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania which has some interesting data -- interesting both for what the data says about American public opinion as well as interesting because of the specific questions that were asked. Most public opinion surveys limit themselves to a few key indicators (presidential job approval being the biggest one), but this poll seemed designed to address some pertinent current issues in much more depth.

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This weekend will mark the end of the third month of Donald Trump's second term in office. Only 45 more fun-filled months to go!

Sorry if that's a bit disheartening, but at this point it's hard to find much in the way of optimism in the political world. And we're certainly not alone in this view.

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With lightning speed, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals just shot down an appeal by the Department of Justice which tried to block a judge from moving forward on a path that may end with finding the administration guilty of contempt of court. It's just another episode in the continuing drama: "As The Constitutional Crisis Unfolds," really, and the next step will almost certainly be the administration appealing today's ruling back to the Supreme Court.

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