The citizens of the Republic of Ireland have a saying about what happened to them after their successful revolution over 100 years ago. They say: "We won the war, but we lost the peace." Without getting into the details too much, what they mean by this is that after they had won their war of independence against Great Britain, they were still forced to relinquish six of Ireland's counties (which would remain under British control). This situation still exists -- it is how the country of Northern Ireland was created.

It's pretty obvious why I was reminded of this saying this week. The current situation is about as murky as can be, but it does seem as though Donald Trump could be considering a similar outcome. After militarily winning the war with Iran, the U.S. might just wind up "losing the peace," at least to some extent or another.

Donald Trump, earlier this week, ramped up his threats against Iran, first to the level of war crimes (threatening to bomb every bridge and power plant in the country, which is absolutely not allowed under the Geneva Conventions), and then to the level of crimes against humanity (threatening to utterly destroy Iran's "whole civilization," which would be considered genocide if he actually did so).

When his self-imposed deadline was about to be reached, something happened. It is not entirely clear what (as I said, things are murky), but it was either Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire to avoid the destruction Trump was (illegally) threatening, or it was Trump having backed himself into a corner and desperately seeking an offramp, at the very last possible moment.

By the timing and the wording of the announcements, the latter seems more likely. Perhaps generals at the Pentagon pushed back on Trump's plans (by pointing out that it would consist of war crimes and they might be plagued with soldiers refusing to obey illegal orders)? Or perhaps it was the knowledge that further attacks on Iran were likely to bring retribution on similar civilian targets in the Gulf states (such as attacking water desalination plants)? Or maybe somebody pointed out to Trump that if he made any move on Kharg Island it might send the price of oil to $150 or $200 per barrel? For whatever reason, Trump announced he was going to agree to a two-week ceasefire that Pakistan (acting as a mediator) was proposing, and then about an hour later Iran replied that it would honor such a ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz up to traffic once again.

For a brief instant, the world heaved a sigh of relief.

It didn't last long, though, since by the next day Iran had accused Israel of not honoring the ceasefire by continuing its attacks on Lebanon. They announced the Strait of Hormuz was once again closed to safe passage. Israel insisted that its war with Hezbollah was not covered by the ceasefire, and the U.S. backed him up in this stance.

At this point, nobody's really sure where this all leaves us. The bombs and missiles and drones have stopped flying, both into and out of Iran -- at least, for now. The Strait remains closed. Israel is still attacking Lebanon. High-level peace negotiations are scheduled for Saturday, with Vice President JD Vance to be the main negotiator on the American side. But at this point, it's not even certain that the Iranians will even show up for such peace talks.

But all of that isn't what I mean about "losing the peace." That's all just the uncertainty and murkiness of the current situation. The key questions that remain are what will be included in any peace deal, if one ever emerges? Because that is where America could indeed lose the peace.

As things stand, America has offered a 15-point proposal to Iran. The Iranians countered with their own 10-point proposal. The status of these is the murkiest thing about the whole situation, which is exacerbated by Trump (as he is wont to do) speaking flippantly about what is going on.

Iran released what it said was the 10-point plan they had offered to Trump. It is breathtaking in its demands. Over half of them should be seen as absolute non-starters for the U.S. The remaining points are at least somewhat plausible, but not in their current form.

The U.S. has not publicly released its own 15-point plan, but it is almost certainly just as ridiculous in its demands as the Iranian list. This is how such negotiations work, after all -- both sides start from a laughably hard line where they demand the moon, the sun, and the stars, and then through negotiations both sides drop the most implausible of their demands and work to get some reasonable agreement on the others.

Because Trump said, when he first announced that he was agreeing to a ceasefire, that the 10-point Iranian proposal was "a workable basis on which to negotiate," the Iranians somehow took that to mean that Trump had agreed to the entirety of the document. Statements from both sides this week have reflected such a chasm of misunderstanding that nobody's sure what to think, at this point.

The most obvious thing that could lose the peace for America is if Iran is given permission to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war started, these were considered (by all nations except Iran, perhaps) as international waters, where safe passage of ships is guaranteed. Since the war started, Iran has effectively shut down shipping in the Strait because of their geographical advantage and how easy it is for them to attack oil tankers (which are complete sitting ducks, militarily speaking). Now they are apparently charging "tolls" (which could more accurately be described as "protection money," in the organized crime sense of the term) to any ship who wants to transit the Strait without getting blown up.

Iran is now demanding that this situation continue and be accepted by not just the U.S. but by the whole world. They are asking for a dollar per barrel of oil shipped through the Strait, which would mean millions in revenue from every single tanker that passes through it. There have been some rumors that they might share this revenue with Oman, which is the country that sits on the other side of the Strait.

Trump being Trump, he decided to horn in on this windfall of money. For a while now, he's been hinting that maybe the U.S. will join with Iran and that we'll get a big fat cut of the new revenue source. This is a jaw-dropping thing to even propose, since it would make the world worse off to where it was before the war started.

Trump has already been forced to give up some of his war goals. No matter how many times he swears it has already happened, the regime in Iran has not changed. It will still be governed by theocratic strongmen, with the only difference being the individuals who will control the regime (which will be identical to what it was before the war).

The might of the American military has indeed degraded Iran's military, destroying almost all its naval forces and a good portion of its ability to manufacture and launch missiles and drones. But they're still able to shoot down American warplanes, contrary to what Trump had previously claimed. And they are still able to launch offensive missiles and drones, even at a diminished rate. Their stockpiles have (quite obviously) not disappeared entirely.

In fact, both sides may have embraced the concept of a ceasefire due to dwindling munitions supplies. Nobody in America knows how close to running out of missiles Iran is, but then again the only people here who know how close America and her allies are to running out of their interceptor missiles are the ones with very high security clearances (since it is a military secret). And it wouldn't even need to reach "running out" to be a real concern, because unlike Iran we need to have a big enough stockpile held in reserve to prepare for any future war (if China decides to invade Taiwan, to give just one example).

One of the biggest bones of contention in any upcoming peace negotiations will be the 970 pounds of highly-enriched uranium that Iran still possesses. America wants to see it all removed from the country. Iran insists (as it always has) that it has the right (under international agreements they have entered into) to enrich their own uranium. The war has not changed anything in this equation at all -- so far it is a completely-unmet objective for the United States. And it may well be pivotal in any peace negotiations, because neither side seems willing to budge an inch on their maximalist demands.

America has indeed "won" the war with Iran, in a strictly military sense. We lost two warplanes to enemy fire, and 13 soldiers have died. But those are the only losses we have sustained, while we rained destruction down on any part of Iran we targeted. So it is impossible to say that Iran "won" this war in any way.

But they still could win the peace. America has been diminished by this war in a number of sobering ways. We have abdicated our role as a force for good in the world, with Trump blithely issuing threats of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. Our relationship to NATO has taken another gut-punch. We have shown the limits of our military might, since no matter how many bombs we drop, Iran still manages to launch ballistic missiles and drones at other countries. We did not achieve regime change in Iran (no matter what Trump claims to the contrary). Trump has not had the will to send in ground troops, since he knows this would both escalate the war and inevitably lead to more casualties. Iran has demonstrated what everyone feared all along -- how much global power they have by being able to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices skyrocketing has certainly been a pressure point for Trump (and the rest of the world) when he considers escalating versus looking for a way out of his war of choice. At the start, Trump was insisting that only "unconditional surrender" would be an acceptable outcome, which has not happened and is not going to happen. And Iran's uranium is exactly where it was before the war started.

But all of that will pale in comparison to the perceptions of the world if Iran does talk Trump into allowing them to charge protection money to every ship that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if Trump's insane idea of America sharing this windfall bounty never becomes reality, if Iran is allowed to extort shipping in international waters, then America will become even more diminished on the world's stage. And the perception -- for many -- will be that America actually lost the war.

I would put it slightly differently, because the Irish example will be the way to speak of such an outcome. We might have won the war, but we seem to be in very grave danger of now losing the peace.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant