It has been interesting (to me, at least) to hear how both the media and politicians are speaking about the price of gas these days. The mainstream media seems to be somewhat downplaying the continuing rise in the price at the pump, but (to be fair) this could be because of the editorial process taking so much time that by the time the story runs, the price has risen even further. Politicians, of course, have their own biases -- Republicans want to downplay the rise as much as they can get away with, while Democrats want to make it sound as alarmist as possible. But even Democrats aren't really using the right scale.

I have long been frustrated by the widespread lack of the ability to do basic math in public discourse (it's a personal bugaboo of mine, I fully admit). So this is merely an extension of my own personal bias in this regard. Even so, Democrats really should listen to someone who can do some basic math, if they want to hammer home the political concept that: "This was entirely a war of Donald Trump's choice, and he does not care one bit what price you have to pay at the pump."

Part of my frustration stems from there being two big sources that track the national average price of gasoline in America: AAA and GasBuddy.com. I have always used GasBuddy, mostly because I like their charts and user interface better. Many media outlets prefer the numbers from AAA, which are not an exact to-the-penny match with GasBuddy. Fair enough. But the rest of this article will be using GasBuddy's numbers, where you can check the national average price of gas and easily track it by any period of time you click on (the buttons below the chart range from "1 Month" to "10 Year," which I find handy). To see the daily rate since the war began, use the "1 Month" chart. To see how the rate has changed since Trump took office, use the "18 Months" option. To see gas prices during Joe Biden's whole term in office (all the way back to the depths of the COVID-19 slump), use the "6 Year" chart. And the usual caveat applies (since today's price changes throughout the day): these numbers are all "as of this writing" and could change by the time you see them (this is that editorial lag time I mentioned, which can be a lot longer for mainstream media outlets, especially print).

Let's start by looking at the "1 Month" chart. This shows the metric most politicians and news organizations have been using -- the current price as compared to the price on the day before the war began. According to GasBuddy, the national average price Americans were paying at the pump just before the war began was $2.94 per gallon. Right now, the price sits at $3.58 per gallon. That is a rise of 64 cents. What's most dramatic about this rise is that it happened so quickly, but then wars have a way of changing world markets in drastic fashion at times.

Both the media and the Democrats should be framing this thusly: "The average price of gas has jumped over 60 cents a gallon in just a week and a half." With the price jumping around on an hourly basis, this is safe enough since while it doesn't reflect the most recent climb, it accurately portrays the ground that has been covered up through roughly yesterday's prices. Democrats should also point out that: "The average national price of gas went from under $3.00 a gallon to over $3.50 a gallon, and we're not even two weeks into the war." Phrasing it this way frames it using round-number benchmarks that people can easily relate to.

Another caveat: the national price per gallon is just an average of the whole country. This means gas is more expensive in some places and less expensive in others. So some people are still paying just over $3.00 a gallon, while others may already be paying more than $5.00 a gallon (mostly in California, if truth be told). But averages are easier to reference. It's not a literal application of the old "Your mileage may vary" cliché, but it's pretty close.

For Democrats, though, there is a much better way to frame the price increase, because it makes it sound more dramatic. It also has the benefit of being true, unlike the way that Trump just makes numbers up out of thin air when boasting about the price of gasoline (which he routinely used to do, right up to when he started this war). Go back to the GasBuddy site and click on the "18 Months" button. As you can see, during Trump's second term in office, gas prices stayed remarkably static for almost the entirety of 2025. They hovered right around the point where they were when Trump was sworn in -- $3.10 per gallon. Then at the end of the year, prices finally went down. Now click on the "3 Months" button, to better see the prices for all of 2026 (so far). As you can see, the lowest point the national average hit was about $2.75, during the middle of January.

So my message to Democrats is: use that as your baseline, not just "before the war began." $2.75 is also a nice round-ish number to use, and it accurately shows what consumers have gone through this year. As things stand right now, this means the price of gas has risen by 83 cents in less than two months. Which makes for an even-more-dramatic soundbite (while still being true, of course): "Consumers have seen the price of gas go up over 80 cents per gallon since January. This war is costing American families a lot of money, every time they fill up." Or use the benchmarks instead: "In the middle of January, the average national price of gasoline was $2.75, and now it is almost $3.60 per gallon. That is a huge change in a very short time, folks."

This is obviously a very hot political issue right now. And nobody knows what is going to come next -- the world's oil markets are about as volatile as can be imagined, spiking both upwards and downwards over offhand comments made by the Trump administration, as well as concerns over when the Strait of Hormuz will be safe to ship oil through again. If nothing much changes over the course of the next few weeks (which is not a safe bet -- because things are almost certain to change, one way or another), the price of gas at the pumps in American could easily keep climbing until it tops $4.00 a gallon.

Democrats need to frame all of this as dramatically as they can (while still using honest numbers). So if the national average hits $3.75 (which is only 17 cents per gallon above where it stands now), then they need to start saying "the price of gas has risen by a full dollar per gallon since January." The media won't use this formulation until the price reaches almost $4.00 a gallon, since they will continue to use the "right before the war began" price as their benchmark, but Democrats shouldn't feel constrained by this.

The costs of this war will have ripple effects, since it's not just oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz (things like fertilizer prices for farmers are also being affected), and also since shipping costs are a major factor in pretty much everything the American public buys. But that's a more diffuse subject, especially when trying to frame it politically. However, the price of gas is on big huge signs on every street corner in America. People cannot escape seeing the current price at the pump, even if they're not ready to fill their tank. This is why it is such a potent metric in the political realm.

Donald Trump is hoping that gas prices will quickly come right back down after the end of the war. This may be wishful thinking, since gas prices at the pump seem to have a way of spiking upwards immediately (when bad news hits) but then they take a very long time to slowly drift downwards when the news turns better. So gas prices will likely remain high for at least a few months (and that's the most optimistic read possible). This turns what was a bragging point for Trump into something he'd rather not talk about, right at the start of the midterm election campaign season.

The election is less than eight months away. And the American public tends to solidify their opinion of how the economy is doing months before they actually go vote in November. People were already feeling pretty sour about the economy even before Trump started his new war. Seeing the price of gasoline go through the roof isn't helping him politically, to put it mildly.

Democrats are doing a pretty good job of pointing out that this is Trump's war -- it was entirely a war of choice, and he owns all the fallout from it. That's a pretty easy political case to make, especially since Trump and the White House have been absolutely incoherent in their attempts to sell the necessity of the war to the American people so far. And the biggest metric for how this war is costing American families a lot of money is the price of gas. So Democrats really should strive to frame it correctly.

To end on another cliché, it really boils down to a very simple idea: do the math. Do the math and use the numbers to correctly frame the costs of this war. It's not that hard to do, really.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant