Worldwide oil prices went on a wild ride today. On Friday, the last day the oil markets were open, the price of a barrel of oil rose above $90. Today, the price spiked all the way up to $120 per barrel, before coming back down again. The reversal began when the Group of 7 nations indicated they were considering various interventions to stabilize the market and bring the price back down. They didn't actually make any of these moves, they just publicly discussed their options. That was enough to make the price retreat to around $100 a barrel, though. Then Donald Trump made an offhand comment to a reporter about the war effort in Iran, saying: "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," and that the U.S. is "very far" ahead of his initial timeline of the war lasting four to five weeks. The prospect of the war ending soon sent oil prices even lower, and they closed the day just under $90 a barrel, right back where they had started.

Much more than any other president, Donald Trump measures the public's acceptance of his policies with the yardstick of the markets. In his second term, it has really been the only thing that has constrained his impulses at all, at least voluntarily (the courts have constrained Trump in various ways as well, but Trump's decision-making process wasn't a factor in such constraints). When the markets react badly and head downwards, Trump reverses course. The most dramatic example was the reaction to his "Liberation Day" tariffs, where Trump had to back down almost immediately after the world markets took a dive.

Trump seems to be learning this lesson on the Iran War. He began by being defiant, posting on social media that high oil prices are "a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"

This, as with many Trump statements about the economy and how it affects average people, had a certain "Let them eat cake" flavor to it. He's telling his supporters that they would be complete idiots to actually have the temerity to complain about gas prices going up over 50 cents a gallon in one week. Any true MAGA patriot would just bite the bullet, pay the new price, and praise Trump to the skies.

This is not exactly the smartest political tactic, and that's putting it mildly. Calling people "FOOLS" for complaining about high prices at the pump is not going to win Republicans many votes in November. The American people in general don't do the "sacrifice" thing very well, no matter what the reason. At times, they can be inspired to shoulder the burden of economic sacrifice, but only when they have been presented with a compelling reason to do so. Trump still hasn't really clearly laid out his reasoning for going to war with Iran, and he has barely lifted a finger to convince the public that all of this was necessary in any way.

The stock markets have been reacting as well, with the Dow Jones average dropping over 700 points when oil prices rose above $100 today. Perhaps all of this convinced Trump to try a different rhetorical tactic, or perhaps his "I think the war is very complete, pretty much" quote was just one more off-the-cuff comment from him. The only consistency about what Trump has been saying about the war ever since it began has been its complete inconsistency -- Trump says one thing, and then immediately contradicts it to the next reporter he talks to. So perhaps this was just a random statement, but the rest of the world took it very seriously.

The markets all breathed a big sigh of relief -- if the war will be over soon, then perhaps oil prices will drop again and it won't affect other companies' bottom lines for very long. Trump seemed to lean in to the idea when he spoke today at a Republican gathering in Florida, telling GOP House members, "We took a little excursion because we thought we had to do that to get rid of some people. I think you'll see it's a short-term excursion... short term, short term."

Many have already predicted that Trump will be seeking an early exit from this war. He seems to favor quick wars that last anywhere from mere hours to maybe a couple of weeks, maximum. So it wouldn't be surprising for him to suddenly declare victory and pull out of Iran (maybe George W. Bush's old "Mission Accomplished!" banner is lying around the White House somewhere?). Because American "boots on the ground" have not been committed to the war, this would be fairly easy for the U.S. military to do -- they'd just stop launching new airstrikes on the country.

But just because Trump wants it to be over, would the war then truly end? That is a much different question. Iran may not follow Trump's timetable, especially since Trump seems not to care in the slightest about any diplomatic resolution to the war. And the thing that has been pushing worldwide oil prices so high is Iran's ability to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat of attack has (so far) kept all the oil tankers from even attempting to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, so if Iran doesn't go along with Trump and end hostilities when Trump gets bored with the whole exercise, then the risk will remain and oil prices will stay high.

Trump has hinted that maybe the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait, but this has yet to happen. If having American warships was a guarantee that the tankers would not be hit by drones or missiles or any other Iranian attack, then perhaps this would effectively counter Iran's threats towards the Strait. They could still launch attacks, but if none of them got through then it wouldn't really matter, in other words.

It is entirely in Trump's political interest to end the war as quickly as possible (and it fits in with his incredibly short attention span, to boot). The longer the war goes on, the worse the American economy is going to get. As Trump himself is fond of pointing out, the price of energy affects everything, because products don't just magically appear on store shelves or in people's mailboxes, they have to get there (on a truck, on a train, on a plane, or by some combination of these). The price of diesel fuel has risen even more than the price of gas since the war began, and some companies are already slapping surcharges on shipping to cover the higher prices their trucks and airplanes are having to pay. The more this happens, the higher inflation is going to go. High gas prices for consumers together with higher costs for everything else is going to make the affordability issue even worse for Trump than it already was before he started this war.

So it would behoove Trump to follow through and decide he's done with the war and just move on to whatever's next on his agenda (Cuba?). This was reinforced by the market reactions today to him just hinting about it. More than anything else, market reactions matter to Trump, so perhaps the wild fluctuations in prices today has taught Trump a lesson.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant