This is the last legislative week scheduled for Congress in this calendar year. This means that if nothing gets done, the expanded Obamacare subsidies will indeed expire starting on New Year's Day -- which will negatively affect over 20 million Americans. In some cases, they will see their premiums double or even triple. As things stand, a last-minute solution to the problem does not seem at all likely.

Republicans are not showing much in the way of interest in striking any sort of deal or compromise with the Democrats. This lack of urgency means there will likely not be some frenzy of activity later this week that puts a bill on Donald Trump's desk before everyone goes home for vacation. So the subsidies will expire on schedule, as 20 million people go over the cliff.

Republicans are now telling themselves that they'll be able to pass some sort of fix (they still can't even agree on precisely what they're all willing to support) at some point in January. But this ignores the fact that by that point the subsidies will already have expired and the open enrollment period will be closed -- so families have the choice of either biting the economic bullet and somehow paying the huge price hike, or dropping their health insurance altogether until next year's open enrollment period. Neither is an easy choice, obviously.

Added to this mix is the fact that the government's budget runs out again at the end of January. That's where the football was punted, when the previous government shutdown ended. So Democrats will (if they choose to) have the chance once again of shutting the government down in protest, if no compromise solution has been reached by the end of January.

This should strike fear in Republican hearts. Because unlike last time, this time things won't be theoretical and in the future -- they will instead already be having a big impact in a very real way. The families hit with the huge price hikes will not have to have the situation explained to them (by either Democrats or pundits), they will already be living that reality. They will know full well what the Democrats are fighting for, which is going to change the dynamics of the legislative fight.

Trump and the Republicans are insisting that they should revamp large parts of Obamacare and instead of subsidies offer people a health savings account. This would change the system in a fundamental way, which is why it is not likely to happen any time soon -- such changes usually take a long time to hammer out the details and write legislative language. But they are not being reasonable, since the obvious answer (if they truly do want to make fundamental changes) would be to extend the subsidies for one year while they work out the details of what would be acceptable. They're not offering this -- the House reportedly won't even hold a vote this week on any extension of the subsidies.

Politically, this could do the Republicans a lot of damage, heading into a midterm election year. The biggest issue heading into the midterms is already the affordability crisis American families are caught in, and health insurance costs are definitely a big part of that. Republicans are metaphorically shooting themselves in the foot by refusing to extend the subsidies, since falling off that cliff is going to make the affordability crisis incredibly acute for millions of families -- a lot of whom live in red or purple states. The voters are already souring on the fact that the GOP has offered up no solutions for the affordability crisis, and allowing the subsidies to expire will just drive the point home that they simply don't care about it at all. That is going to be a very easy argument for the Democrats to make.

Some Republicans have convinced themselves that the political problem is overstated. They think that not that many people will be aversely affected, that the effects won't be as big as Democrats are now predicting, and that the voters will have forgotten all about it come next November. Other Republicans, however, do not buy into this rosy-tinted political outlook at all. There are plenty of GOP House members who are already afraid of their chances of getting re-elected next year, most of them from swing districts that could easily replace them with a Democrat. The question is going to be whether they will band together with the Democrats to get something passed. But the hurdles are high -- they would need to force Speaker Mike Johnson to bring a bill to the House floor with a discharge petition (which could indeed happen, although not this week) and then they'd still need to find at least 13 Senate Republicans to vote with the Democrats to break a filibuster attempt. So far, only four Senate Republicans have broken ranks, meaning they've got a long way to go to clear this hurdle.

A big part of all of this may be how the mainstream media handles it. Will we see endless stories of families with very sick members who had to drop their health insurance on the air nightly, in early January? Will the story be on the air night after night, or will it just be a blip in the news universe?

Democrats, of course, don't want any of this to happen -- that's why they've been fighting so hard to avoid it. But if it does happen, they should make it as big a deal as is humanly possible. They should bring it up every chance they get, to remind people: "Republicans don't care if you can't afford health insurance -- please remember this in November!" And this will just be one specific issue for Democrats to use, which will be wrapped into their larger campaign to fix the affordability crisis. Republicans are going to be on the defensive, and Democrats will be relentlessly hammering away at them over affordability in general.

As things stand, it's a pretty safe bet that nothing is going to happen this week. Trump isn't inserting himself into the fight, which would probably have been the only thing that could have lit a fire under congressional Republicans. The House Republicans can't even agree on what they should all support as a counter to the Democratic plan to extend the subsidies. And there is a big GOP faction that actually wants to see the subsidies expire. That all adds up to nothing happening at all in Congress, it seems.

So we'll all ring in the new year by kissing the extended Obamacare subsidies goodbye. A few Republican ideologues and Obamacare-haters will rejoice, but over 20 million Americans are going to feel a whole lot different about their finances heading over a cliff.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant