Eric Adams, the current mayor of New York City, ended his Democrat-turned-independent re-election campaign this weekend. This has scrambled the race somewhat, but only at the margins. Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, has such a big lead over the two remaining major candidates that even if one of them dropped out Mamdani would still be the frontrunner, possibly by double digits.

Adams was running in fourth place, with only 8 percent support, which is remarkable since he is the sitting mayor of the city. For an incumbent to be that unpopular is unusual -- but entirely understandable, with Adams. His administration has been plagued with corruption charges and resignations, and the federal corruption case against Adams himself was seemingly dropped because Donald Trump didn't like it. Adams sunk even further in New Yorkers' eyes when he was seen as knuckling under to Trump in exchange for all charges against him being dropped.

This was exacerbated recently by the news that Adams had met with Trump administration officials because they were dangling plum jobs in the Trump administration, if Adams would only drop out of the race. No such job offer has been officially announced -- yet. But it should surprise absolutely no one if an announcement comes that Adams has been nominated to be an ambassador or perhaps some other high-ranking job in the Trump administration -- the day after the election. That'd be the smart bet, at any rate.

Adams, knowing he would have had a tough fight, declined to run in the Democratic primary. Instead, he filed as an independent, skipping the primary altogether. In fact, because he waited so long to drop out, his name will still appear on the ballot.

The Democratic primary was shocking, because a very flawed Democrat (Andrew Cuomo) ran in an attempt at a political comeback (after he had to leave the governor's office in disgrace). And even though Cuomo's last name is a storied one in New York, he lost. To a political newcomer. By a big margin.

Zohran Mamdani's win in the Democratic primary shocked many Democrats because he calls himself a democratic socialist and his ideology might be best described as "somewhat to the left of Bernie Sanders." Mamdani's economic populist campaign has seemingly terrified many establishment Democrats and big-money Democratic donors -- most of whom had been holding their noses and supporting Cuomo, even with all his deep flaws.

Since Mamdani won the Democratic nomination, endorsements from other Democrats (especially nationally-known ones) have been slow and begrudging, at best. New York Governor Kathy Hochul finally did endorse Mamdani, while taking pains to point out that she didn't agree with him on a lot of stuff.

The two current highest-ranking Democratic officeholders, both of whom are from New York City, have yet not endorsed Mamdani. In fact, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries even went out of his way to say nice things about Adams after he pulled out of the race:

[Zohran] Mamdani has been working to shore up endorsements to strengthen his position against [Andrew] Cuomo. But some top Democrats have yet to endorse him, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (New York). Jeffries praised [Eric] Adams on Sunday in a statement saying he had served "courageously and authentically" as a public servant and indicated that he would "publicly weigh in with respect to the remaining candidates" in the mayor's race before early voting begins.

Early voting begins at the end of October, so it could be weeks before Jeffries even makes up his mind -- and the longer he waits, the less weighty his endorsement will be. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also has yet to endorse Mamdani.

Even when he does score a big endorsement, it's not exactly bursting with enthusiasm. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is currently out on a book tour, and was specifically asked about a Mamdani endorsement in her biggest television interview yet, with Rachel Maddow:

[Kamala] Harris was asked by Rachel Maddow during an interview on MSNBC whether she would lend her support to [Zohran] Mamdani, who has been spurned by many top Democrats after his victory over Andrew M. Cuomo, the former New York governor, in the party's primary.

"Look, as far as I'm concerned, he's the Democratic nominee and he should be supported," Ms. Harris replied.

Ms. Maddow pressed again: "Do you endorse his candidacy?"

"I support the Democrat in the race, sure," Ms. Harris said, without once saying the candidate's name. She quickly added that Mr. Mamdani was "not the only star" running for mayor, mentioning candidates like Barbara Drummond in Mobile, Ala., and Helena Moreno in New Orleans, La.

Note that: "...without once saying the candidate's name." She could name the Democratic candidates running in New Orleans and Mobile, but that guy... ol' whatsisname... in New York City... somehow didn't rate being named by Harris. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement. In fact, Harris tried to get away with a passive-voice dodge in her first answer to Maddow: "he's the Democratic nominee and he should be supported." Talk about damning with faint praise....

Harris then apparently read some bad reviews of her non-endorsement endorsement and decided to personally call Mamdani up a couple days later. We'll see, when she is publicly asked about him again -- maybe she'll even be able to say his name next time.

As things stand, it is now a three-way race. There's a Republican candidate -- Curtis Sliwa, of "Guardian Angels" fame -- still in the race and he swears he isn't going to drop out. Then again, that's what Adams was also saying up until this weekend, so who knows? But even if it were to become a head-to-head race between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani would still likely have a big lead. Here is some recent polling:

A September Suffolk University poll had Mamdani at 45% support, Cuomo at 25%, Adams at 8% and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 9%. Based on these figures, Cuomo would still be trailing Mamdani even if he picked up Adams's support.

Here's some more polling, specifically on which candidate people would support if the race narrowed:

A Marist Poll released earlier this month found that Mamdani's 21-percentage-point lead in the four-way contest would narrow to 16 points if Adam [sic] were to end his campaign. Mamdani would lead Cuomo by 10 points in a head-to-head matchup, according to the survey.

The news that Adams had dropped out cheered one person up, though. Donald Trump seems like he is almost resigned to a Mamdani win, and is openly threatening to cut off all federal funding that goes to New York City if they elect (as he likes to put it) a "Communist." After Adams pulled out, Trump asked the voters of New York City: "Remember, he needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won't be getting any of it, so what's the point of voting for him?"

Of course, having Trump on your side in a New York City election is akin to the electoral kiss of death, but Cuomo doesn't seem to mind (he'll take any help he can get, at this point).

There is a little over a month before the election happens. Things could change -- Sliwa might actually be convinced to drop out, for instance. But as things stand, Eric Adams ending his campaign doesn't seem like it's going to move the needle anywhere near enough for Cuomo to have an actual shot at winning.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant