Panama And Taiwan
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made his first visit abroad this week. He went to Panama and reportedly pushed them to do something about the Panama Canal, in order to somehow appease President Trump's obsession with it. So far, they've refused to do so. Perhaps this is all just as performative as Trump's now-you-see-it-now-you-don't tariffs on Canada and Mexico -- perhaps Trump will find some way to declare victory and move on to other strange obsessions. Panama could, for instance, slightly lower the rates for ships to pass through their canal, either just for American ships or for all ships. That would probably be enough for Trump to move on.
Trump's stance on the Panama Canal is downright delusional. Rubio didn't echo the weirdest of Trump's claims (that Chinese soldiers are actually running the whole operation), he instead tried to somehow square it with the treaty Panama and the U.S. signed which gave them the canal in the first place. Panama is supposed to operate the canal in a totally neutral fashion, and (according to Rubio) they are not, because China operates two of the five ports at either end of the canal. This is, of course, ridiculous (the ports have nothing to do with the operation of the canal itself), but it's better than claiming to see Chinese soldiers where they do not exist, at least.
This is probably all performative, to some degree or another. Trump wants to play "tough guy" and bully other countries into doing what he wants (or at least appearing to do so). But there's always the danger that Trump is not just playing an ego game and is so serious about taking back the Panama Canal that he'd actually use force to do so.
This would be a complete disaster. The American military could certainly retake the Panama Canal, there's no doubt about that. But the shockwaves from doing so would be felt worldwide. It might even precipitate the "World War III" that Trump promised he'd avoid.
Think about it. If the United States invaded and secured the Panama Canal, based on nothing more than: "We built it, we used to own it, and we want it back," then what do you think China is going to do next? Invading Taiwan will never have looked so good, for them. After all, if great powers are allowed to just grab any land they want by use of force, then China's got a clear claim (as far as they are concerned) on Taiwan. They already call it part of China. As far as they are concerned, diplomatically, it's a renegade province and invading it would be merely "internal affairs" -- and thus no other country would have any reason to intervene in any way.
What would Trump do if China did invade Taiwan? Your guess is as good as mine, really. Would he throw the entire weight of the U.S. military into a war with China? Would he send some munitions to Taiwan and essentially say: "There you go -- now you're on your own"? Or would he just shrug and not care at all, since as far as he is concerned grabbing land is completely acceptable for powerful countries to do? I really have no clue which way he'd react.
One thing that is certain is that the United States is in no shape to fight a long war with another superpower. Oh sure, we could go grab the Panama Canal and defend it against any guerrilla-style resistance. That would be relatively easy for the American military to accomplish. But in a war with a bigger country (with a huge military), we would only have anywhere from one week to one month's worth of high-tech weaponry before we use it all up. Fighting China would mean sea battles and air battles, and lots and lots of missiles. Missiles cost a lot of money, and they are not easy to make. And we do not have a huge stockpile of them (a fact which a recent review of America's military readiness painfully pointed out).
The war in Ukraine brought a rather stark reminder of this, in a much more low-tech way. The Ukrainian military, fighting a tank and trench war, started firing off thousands of artillery rounds per week. They were firing them off so fast, they outstripped the ability of us to replace them (using more in a week than we could make in many months). We ramped up production, but please remember these are merely artillery rounds. They're not that complicated, in other words, even if they do have to be precision-machined. Now picture us being in the same predicament except with high-tech multimillion-dollar missiles.
You can't just run extra shifts of workers and start cranking them out, the way we did for the Howitzer shells. High-tech weapons require high-tech parts such as computer chips. And where do we get an enormous amount of our computer chips from? Taiwan. But that supply chain isn't going to be there anymore if a war's going on.
Of course, I hope things don't get to that point. I hope we don't have to find out (the hard way) that we simply cannot produce enough weaponry to fight a sustained global-scale war. Maybe Trump would just refuse to help defend Taiwan at all. This would signal to the world that America is not a reliable ally, but Trump doesn't really care what the rest of the world thinks of him or the country.
Every scenario is pretty frightening to even contemplate. But if Trump does somehow follow through on his threats to take back the Panama Canal, the possibility that we would indeed have to react to China invading Taiwan gets far greater.
Which is why I really do hope that some sort of performative resolution happens instead. Perhaps Panama will announce to the world that it has now followed Donald Trump's advice and kicked out all the (non-existent) Chinese soldiers from the entire length of the Panama Canal. They could invite either Trump or Rubio back down to inspect everything, to prove that all those dastardly Chinese soldiers were now gone. Maybe they could even paint everything red, white, and blue just for fun. Trump could then declare victory, pat himself on the back, and then forget about it all and move on to newer, even-crazier obsessions.
The entire world would laugh at him (and us), of course. But that's a much better thing to endure than giving China a green light to invade Taiwan. Because if that happens, nobody's going to be laughing.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Interesting speculations. But I'm not sure there's a very direct connection between a hypothetical US seizure of the Panama Canal, and a subsequent, and resulting, Chinese attack on Taiwan.
As I understand it, China has its own timetable for Taiwan, and it's based on growing its military capabilities for projecting decisive force across the Strait in the face of Taiwanese resistance backed by the U.S. The deadline for the prep is, I think I read, 2030.
So suppose Trump did do something military to Panama, as you say in a worst-case scenario? Sure, that breaks international law and destroys U.S. credibility about resisting foreign-country takeovers. But would China really just suddenly decide it's time to invade Taiwan because the optics are so much better vis-a-vis U.S. rhetoric? I don't think so. Trump might or might not decide to defend Taiwan, as you say, but why woulod the Chinese take that chance - when their plan (I believe) is to do the deed when they're good and ready, no matter which U.S. president is in office.
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Americans are flocking to the winning side. :D
And looks like we have a new US ATTORNEY GENERAL..
The Senate confirmed AG Pam Bondi in a bipartisan vote.. :D
Democrats simply CAN'T stop the PRESIDENT Trump train!!! :D
Can't wait until she purges the Merritt Garland riff-raff from the DOJ...
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made his first visit abroad this week. He went to Panama and reportedly pushed them to do something about the Panama Canal, in order to somehow appease President Trump's obsession with it. So far, they've refused to do so.
Not factually accurate..
Rubio tells Panama to reduce Chinese influence in canal area or face US action
Secretary of state’s visit to Central American state greeted with protests at Trump’s demand to take back the waterway
Mulino noted an expanded deal could potentially allow for the deportation of migrants from Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. “We spoke extensively about the problem of migration, with the understanding that Panama is a transit point,” said Mulino, after his meeting.
Mulino also said he would not renew Panama’s belt and road initiative with China and invited the state department to promote US investment in the country.
It's a start...
Panama President proves he is willing to address some of PRESIDENT Trump's concerns... :D
Once again, PRESIDENT Trump is getting shit done for America.. :D
This would be a complete disaster. The American military could certainly retake the Panama Canal, there's no doubt about that. But the shockwaves from doing so would be felt worldwide. It might even precipitate the "World War III" that Trump promised he'd avoid.
You DO realize that ya'all have been pushing that TRUMP WILL START WWIII!!!! hysterical fear mongering BS since Jun of 2015...
It's REALLY getting old, yunno??
HOW *exactly* can PRESIDENT Trump securing the Panama Canal with troops start WWIII???
:eyeroll:
Invading Taiwan will never have looked so good, for them.
China will not dare to invade Taiwan while PRESIDENT Trump is in office...
That's just fear-mongering, pure and simple..
Maybe Trump would just refuse to help defend Taiwan at all.
There are absolutely ZERO facts to support this conjecture..
It's nothing but Trump/America hate and PTDS talking..
Every scenario is pretty frightening to even contemplate.
Not factually accurate.. There are PLENTY of scenarios you COULD contemplate that would be beneficial to America, Americans and the World Order..
IF you were so inclined to contemplate them, I mean...
The simple fact is, PRESIDENT Trump is moving at warp speed to keep all his promises he has made..
PRESIDENT Trump still has a ways to go, but he's off to an awesome start.. :D
And America and Americans are behind him..
Perhaps ya'all should consider getting behind PRESIDENT Trump for the good of the country, eh??
I'm just sayin'.. :D
JMCt
1
Obviously China wouldn’t even consider invading Taiwan until it has the military capabilities needed to win. My understanding is not before 2027, as amphibious assault is one of the most complex and difficult military actions to do.
As far as experience, China’s 75 year old military has had little more than border skirmishes with India and the Soviets and an unsuccessful war against Vietnam. Oh, and Tiananmen Square. The distance to Taiwan is 80 miles at the closest point and there’s no way the world won’t notice the pre-invasion buildup.
China imports 80% of both its energy and agricultural inputs and most of it can be easily throttled at the Straits of Malacca. Couple destroyers would probably do the trick. So I wouldn’t lose any sleep over Commie China invading Taiwan.
MtnCaddy on [5]
I agree that the invasion would be fantastically difficult and risky for China's untested military, especially if the invasion was opposed by the US Navy and Air Force.
However, I wouldn't just relegate the job of blockading the Chinese economy to a couple of destroyers in the Malacca Straits. Inexperienced or not, the Chinese Navy and Missile Forces are pretty strong, and those two destroyers - stationed alone in the sea lanes - would go down pretty quick.
No, it would be a real full-scale naval and air war in the Western Pacific, and as Chris says, if it took place during the Trump administration (before 2029) there is a question as to how far this president would order the Pentagon to risk American lives and assets in a war, even if that war was definitely in America's long-term interests regarding keeping Taiwan independent and economically viable.
BUT - there's no way to be sure which way Trump would lean, and how hard. The Chinese are not risk-takers at this level. They'll want to feel pretty confident they can fend off the carriers, not just a destroyer or two. And who knows, these days, just how well a carrier task force will fare off the coast of a well-defended China?
CW
This is probably all performative, to some degree or another.
What makes you think that? Could it be Trump's undeniable excessive staffing of his administration with personalities from the Fox Newsian propaganda performative network... or as Trump would describe it "central casting"?
What Trump is doing more closely resembles the casting of a reality television show to serve Trump himself and his own best interests and "not so much" the staffing of a qualified administration meant to serve the American people.
Was it not comedy gold today to watch these unqualified clowns and former Fox Newsian talking heads -- and current ones for that matter -- fall all over themselves to "clean up on aisle Trump" after he announced the United States will occupy the Mideast? And spare me the ridiculous "Trump playing 3-D chess" absolute asinine bullshit; incompetence doesn't begin to describe it.