ChrisWeigant.com

Cracks In Republican Unity

[ Posted Monday, January 27th, 2025 – 17:05 UTC ]

If President Donald Trump's agenda gets stalled in any way, it's going to happen because of dissent within his own Republican ranks. And one week in to Trump's second term, cracks are already appearing in the MAGA facade. How deep or wide those cracks may become is still an open question, but it certainly is interesting to see them appear so quickly.

The Republican Party has an incredibly thin majority in both houses of Congress. They can only afford to lose three Senate votes on any party-line issue, and their margin is even slimmer over in the House. This gives incredible power to recalcitrant GOP members, some of whom are impervious to Trump's threats of in-party retribution. This coming week will be an interesting one, because we may just see those cracks widen even further.

First, let's take a look at the Senate. The secretary of Defense was approved late last week, by the thinnest margin possible: a 51-50 vote, in which three Republicans defected and the vice president had to cast the tie-breaking vote. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence, to state the obvious. Voting against Pete Hegseth were Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitch McConnell. Collins and Murkowski are known renegades within the party, but both of them are so popular in their home states that they can survive any blowback from Trump and his MAGA supporters. McConnell is quite likely to retire from the Senate after he finishes his current term in 2026 (his 83rd birthday is next month). So he simply does not care what voters think about him, at this point.

McConnell has never been a big Trump fan, although he did knuckle under and endorse Trump for president last year. But the two used to regularly clash in a Washington power struggle, back when McConnell was the Republican leader in the Senate. McConnell has now stepped down from his leadership position, which further frees him to act more independently (as he doesn't have to worry about whipping his caucus for votes anymore). But McConnell is still influential among his caucus, meaning that him voting against Trump (in any way) may give others cover to do so as well. This didn't happen on the Hegseth vote, but we'll see what happens this week.

Two other contentious Trump nominees will get hearings this week in the Senate: Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Junior. Both were Democrats not too long ago, which may provide a handy built-in reason for Republicans not to support them. McConnell isn't a big fan of either Gabbard or Kennedy (McConnell is old enough to have contracted and survived polio, as a child). So both nominees might already have three Republican votes against them. If Democrats are unified, all it would take is one more Republican to derail these (obviously unqualified) candidates.

In Gabbard's case, it might not even come to that. The Senate Intelligence Committee first has to vote on whether to advance Gabbard's nomination to the Senate floor. The committee is made up of nine Republicans and eight Democrats. And Susan Collins sits on the committee. The vote to advance Gabbard or not is (as of now) scheduled to be held in closed session, meaning they will be voting anonymously. But there is now some pressure to hold the vote in open session (where the votes would be publicly known). Either way, if Collins decides to vote against Gabbard then it would stop her nomination before it even got to the full Senate.

Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski just issued a joint statement with a lawmaker from Denmark which states that Greenland is: "open for business, not for sale... an ally, not an asset... the future will be defined by partnership, not ownership." This is some direct pushback on Trump's inane idea to buy the island from Denmark, or perhaps even take it by force.

Over in the House of Representatives, the GOP is struggling with the same problem that has vexed Republican speakers for years now -- how to actually write budget legislation. It's all fine and good to go out and give a roaring speech on slashing government spending, but when you sit down and try to actually put numbers on paper then you find out that almost all of this spending actually has constituencies among Republicans -- who are going to resist slashing programs that directly benefit their districts and their constituents.

There are Republicans from blue states pushing hard to either eliminate or pare back the cap on deducting state and local taxes on federal income tax forms. They are adamant about the issue, because they know their re-election might depend on how they vote on it. There are Republicans who have never voted to raise the nation's debt ceiling, which is a crisis already underway (the debt ceiling will have to be raised within the next few months or the country will default). Donald Trump wants the debt ceiling abolished, but Republicans love to use it as political leverage against Democratic presidents, and so many of them are vehemently against this idea.

To pay for another round of whopping tax cuts for billionaires, Republicans are going to face some rather daunting math. They'll be adding trillions to the deficit and the national debt, so they're going to seek out ways to slash other spending to pay for the tax cuts. On the chopping block are the standard things some Republicans ideologically hate -- things such as food stamps (now known as SNAP), Obamacare subsidies, Medicaid, and eventually even Medicare and Social Security. But the problem with slashing all these programs is that quite a few Republican voters -- especially in rural areas -- benefit greatly from them. Cutting SNAP benefits also means cutting subsidies to farmers, for instance. And a whole lot of deep-red Republican areas benefit from Obamacare, SNAP, and Medicaid. After just having run a populist campaign to make everything more affordable for working-class Americans, this would have exactly the opposite effect. Which some Republicans (those in the most vulnerable swing districts) know full well. Again, voting to slash such programs might directly lead to them getting voted out of office in the midterms.

So far, the House GOP can't even agree on the basics of what they want in their budget bills. Or even whether it's going to be "bills" or just a single bill. Speaker Johnson and the people in charge of actually writing the budget legislation face the same conundrum they always do: giving in to one faction of Republicans or another might mean losing enough votes (from another faction) that means they can't pass it on a party-line vote. Which would mean having to convince some Democrats to vote for it -- which would mean having to strip out the most noxious of the culture-war ideas from any such bill.

This unsolvable puzzle has already taken down the past three speakers (John Boehner , Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy). So far, Johnson's leadership job looks secure, but if he is forced to get Democratic votes to pass their budget this could change very quickly.

But while Republicans may take comfort in blaming Democrats (if things get that far, where Democratic votes are needed to pass a bill), the real blame will belong with the holdouts within their own party. There is no one unifying issue that defines these holdouts -- there are a lot of different issues where different members draw the line. But what is interesting is that such cracks are already visible within the Republican Party. Trump blustering at them to do exactly what he wants only goes so far. This week will be an interesting one to watch, because it will be an early measure of how far his influence actually does go.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

27 Comments on “Cracks In Republican Unity”

  1. [1] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    I'm curious what happens Feb 1st with the tariffs. I assume he plans to expand on his tariff sleaze, put them on as many countries as he can get away with then offer exceptions to any business that bends it's knee. The danger is, especially with the debt ceiling coming up, is the world says no, and immediately do their own retaliatory tariffs. A credit default mixed with high tariffs going in and out of the country, I would think would be quite bad. A recession not so easily blamed on the democrats might have some in congress jump ship, or at least grow a pair...

    I'm also curious to see if we get any Manchin/Sinema equivalents that are willing to vote with the President...for a price. Lot's of opportunities for graft and corruption, and Trump is not so good spreading the wealth...

  2. [2] 
    Kick wrote:

    So it seems to me like you're saying the current POTUS was "Lame Duck Donald" from the instant he (didn't) put his hand on the Bible but did swear to "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

    Can you imagine the hair-on-fire poutrage of the conspiracy theorist raging Righties if Barack Obama had not placed his hand on a Bible? Rhetorical question.

  3. [3] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    As you say, all we can do is watch and wait regarding the GOP's ability to actually pass effective legislation - as opposed to actually taking action to protest and contest the president's scattershot 'flood the zone' executive orders.

    I took note particularly of this comment:

    "...Speaker Johnson and the people in charge of actually writing the budget legislation face the same conundrum they always do: giving in to one faction of Republicans or another might mean losing enough votes (from another faction) that means they can't pass it on a party-line vote. Which would mean having to convince some Democrats to vote for it -- which would mean having to strip out the most noxious of the culture-war ideas from any such bill.

    "This unsolvable puzzle has already taken down the past three speakers (John Boehner , Paul Ryan, and Kevin McCarthy). So far, Johnson's leadership job looks secure, but if he is forced to get Democratic votes to pass their budget this could change very quickly."

    Right. How is Johnson going to get through this puzzle this winter?

    And we can be sure that the president will have basically zero ability to understand the problem on a practical level and actually help "his" party's Congressional leadership govern the country effectively.

  4. [4] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    1

    A recession not so easily blamed on the democrats might have some in congress jump ship, or at least grow a pair...

    A pair? Oh, right... you mean brain cells. Heh. ;)

    Trump seems determined to push our allies into the awaiting arms of ________ <----- [fill in blank here]. The bullying bullshit could backfire spectacularly.

  5. [5] 
    Kick wrote:

    John M from Ct.
    3

    While CW prefers to refer to these jellyfish as the "Chaos Caucus," I favor the much more dead-on-balls accurate term of "Castrated Caucus."

    Right. How is Johnson going to get through this puzzle this winter?

    Same as last winter: Nothing (except partisan culture war bullshit that won't pass the Senate) will get done unless Hakeem Jeffries wants it. :)

  6. [6] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    Kick, on [5]
    Thanks for the quick response.

    I think Chris's point is that if Johnson can only get the budget passed and the debt limit raised, with Jeffries' (the Dems) cooperation, bypassing the radicals in the GOP Freedom Caucus, those radicals will retaliate by nuking Johnson with a motion to remove him as Speaker - like the previous Speakers, as Chris notes.

    What are Johnson's options? He tries to herd the GOP cats, needing every single one on board even though they fundamentally disagree on major parts of a budget bill - or he goes to Jeffries, hat in hand, to make a deal that excises all GOP culture war stuff from the budget so the Dems can support it. But if he does the latter, having failed on the former, the GOP radicals take him down - as with the previous GOP Speakers.

  7. [7] 
    Mezzomamma wrote:

    On the whole the deeper red a state, the bigger a taker of Federal dollars it is. This means the cuts their representatives are slavering over will disproportionately hurt the people they supposedly represent, the direct and indirect effects further depressing weak local economies as well as harming so many individuals.

    When, not if, this happens, I'd like to think it would naturally tip the balance for the 2026 congressional elections but I fear the culture war indoctrination outweighs the good of one's own children for some. So people will need to be reminded all the time that Representative Rightwing voted in favour of all the bad stuff that has happened to you and your family (perhaps with a reminder of Rightwing's personal wealth gained at the expense of people like you), but Candidate Concerned will promise to represent your best interests if elected.

    There are areas, like one I used to live in, where the effective choice is only between more or less right wing, but even a few more Rs willing to vote for the actual good of their constituencies would help.

  8. [8] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Chris,

    I do my thing solely on an iPhone.

    1- This website keeps making me log in even though I always check the “remember me” box.
    2- It also keeps informing that whatever I’m trying to post is “not secure” and makes me elect to proceed.
    3- I can’t wait for the block function. Since michale is paying you the big bucks you let him shit all over Weigantia. I am disabled and I’m lucky the VA has kept a roof over my head since 2016 and that I have a SNAP card. So you have yet to see a dime from me but you deliver on the block function and I’ll figure out a way to get a couple-three-four hundred bucks to you. Maybe I’ll sling my pain pills.

  9. [9] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    The fact that cho’mo used to be useful to Weigantia is utterly fucking irrelevant and my scrolling finger doth cry out for a respite.

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    "Waaaaaaa Waaaaaaaa Waaaaaaaa Waaaaaaa"
    -Dishonorably Discharged Druggie Inmate Scumbag

    Jesus!!

    No wonder the Army kicked you out...

    Not only are you a disgusting and pathetic druggie who will die as you lived... Hated and alone...

    Yer a pussy who whines and cries like a pathetic fool...

    :eyeroll:

    As far as the problems you are describing with Weigantia....

    -you DO realize that I coined that term, right?? So every time you use the term 'Weigantia', you are acknowledging my superior intellect... :D

    Anyways, those problems you are having here in Weigantian HAVE been discussed and a fix was mentioned..

    But you were probably just too high to pay attention..

    OR the fix was mentioned while your block was on lockdown and you missed it..

    But, being that I am the awesome guy I am, I'll be happy to pass it on to you..

    Use Firefox, you useless pathetic dishonorably discharged scumbag druggie addict inmate who will die as he lived.. Pathetic, unloved and alone..

    No wonder your wife left you... :eyeroll:

    There.. Don't say I never did anything nice for you.. :D

    :eyeroll:

    Since michale is paying you the big bucks you let him shit all over Weigantia.

    How much I donated to CW is between CW and myself..

    Just because yer a useless dishonorably discharged drug addict inmate who doesn't have a dime to his name, don't blame others for your fuck-ups..

    Maybe if you weren't such a useless and pathetic drug addict, you could afford to hold down a work release job, eh?

    :eyeroll:

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    Taking care of some yesterday business..

    Victoria Troll,

    BBBBWWAHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    As usual, your pathetic and hysterical screeds are long on whining and pathetic hysterics with absolutely ZERO facts to back them up..

    Every article that has the REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION label IS reprinted with permission, you dumbass retarded moron. And you have ZERO facts that prove otherwise..

    So why don't you quit yer hysterical whining and crying cuz yer always getting beat down and try to come up with some OBJECTIVE reality, eh??

    The Wong case has NOTHING to do with PRESIDENT Trump's current Executive Order.. Wong's parents were LEGAL immigrants and LEGAL residents of the United States..

    As such, the case has ZERO bearing on issues of children of ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT CRIMINALS...

    ZERO... ZILCH... NADA... NONE... NIX...

    I realize that you are too stupid and to retarded to understand this very basic, but oh so relevant and deterministic FACT, but it's the ONLY relevant fact nonetheless..

    If you had a SINGLE brain cell left in your empty head (I know your head is empty because you rent me the entire space in your head) you would shut up about it and quit embarrassing yourself.

    Because you just HAVE to know that, as with everything else from the past year, you will be wrong on how the court's rule..

    You were wrong on Roe v Wade, you were wrong on Basement Biden (who??) finishing the election, you were wrong about Headboard Harris (who??) winning the election.... You were wrong about EVERYTHING!!

    So, what makes you think that you have any a SMIDGEN... an IOTA.. of credibility here??

    Yer just like the dishonorably discharged scumbag druggie addict inmate, Caddy...

    Alone and pathetic and completely devoid of ANY semblance of intelligence whatsoever...

    Even with such a brain dead dullard as yourself, you just HAVE to know that the SCOTUS will uphold PRESIDENT Trump's Executive Order...

    You are just too stupid and retarded to even realize how utterly stupid and retarded you really are...

    :eyeroll:

    Say hi to your brother for me... :D

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    I had about a dozen or 2 comments regarding PRESIDENT Trump's wins of the last week or so..

    But duty calls and I must answer the call of keeping the streets of Florida safe for all.. :D

    So, all these facts about how AWESOME PRESIDENT Trump is will have to wait until tomorrow..

    Stay tuned.. :D

  13. [13] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @m,

    unlike some folks here, i am actually interested in reading your opinions.

    but I'm not interested enough to sift through fifteen pages of copy-pasted opinion pieces to find them. if you're not trying to have a real discussion, what's the point, to be as annoying as possible to the people you don't like? it doesn't seem to me like a very fruitful pursuit, but if that's the audience you want to cater to, knock yourself out.

    JL

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    JL,

    Anything I post is my opinion whether I actually write it or not so you have a plethora of opinions that you can discuss if that is truly what you want to do.

    Pick one and we can talk about it. Or not It's totally up to you.

    But I have been posting this way for over 15 years. Do you honestly think I'm going to change now.

  15. [15] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    poet
    13

    if you're not trying to have a real discussion, what's the point, to be as annoying as possible to the people you don't like?

    Like, Duh.

    Cho’mo must have been something back in the day for y’all to engage with someone who reprints right-wing garbage at repeated and great lengths. He may not write for himself because like MAGAts he has to be told what to believe. Stop wasting time on this child molester and maybe we can get a COGENT Conservative to participate down here.*smh*

  16. [16] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    a disgusting and pathetic druggie who will die as you lived... Hated and alone...

    Hey I got promoted! Twelve words this time to try to insult me — let’s see if cho’mo can hit fourteen or fifteen words next time.

    (thinking)

    On the other hand, nypoet22, I suppose this qualifies as actual original writing and not cut-a-pasted crap.

  17. [17] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Use Firefox

    You can try this, and it might work but all browsers on Apple ios (iphone/ipad) are just wrappers around webkit, the native Apple browser engine. Not the same as the Firefox desktop version which uses gecko as it's engine.

    Every article that has the REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION label IS reprinted with permission, you dumbass retarded moron. And you have ZERO facts that prove otherwise..

    You mean other than the re-posting guidelines of the originating site that you refuse to link to? Which is also quite likely part of the re-posting guidelines?

  18. [18] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    But I have been posting this way for over 15 years. Do you honestly think I'm going to change now.

    Well, you have descended in to a sloppy version. Once upon a time you would actually link to it and post just a paragraph or three. Which quite likely does fall under most outlets re-posting guidelines...

  19. [19] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    to be as annoying as possible to the people you don't like?

    I think he is way beyond that stage. The parallels to Trump's vindictive madness is creepy...

  20. [20] 
    Kick wrote:

    John M from Ct.
    6

    What are Johnson's options? He tries to herd the GOP cats,

    if by "GOP cats" you mean the "Leopards Eating People's Faces Party"

    needing every single one on board even though they fundamentally disagree on major parts of a budget bill

    if by "every single one" you mean "almost every single one"

    - or he goes to Jeffries,

    if by "Jeffries," you mean the "practically de facto Speaker of the House,"

    hat in hand,

    if by "hat" you mean "tiny little prick"

    to make a deal that excises all GOP culture war stuff from the budget so the Dems can support it.

    "All"? I try not to use small words that mean ginormous things.

    But if he does the latter, having failed on the former, the GOP radicals take him down - as with the previous GOP Speakers.

    Well, that depends entirely on Donald Trump and at what point (he thinks) he no longer needs Mike Johnson and/or (he thinks) he knows that Mike Johnson has spoken facts about him. Example: He's a "fucking moron" - Rex Tillerson (Secretary of State).

  21. [21] 
    Kick wrote:

    MtnCaddy
    8

    I do my thing solely on an iPhone.

    1- This website keeps making me log in even though I always check the “remember me” box.
    2- It also keeps informing that whatever I’m trying to post is “not secure” and makes me elect to proceed.

    Try installing Firefox on your iPhone:

    1. Open the App Store
    2. Search for "Firefox for iOS"
    3. Select the Firefox app
    4. Select the "Get" or "Cloud" icon
    5. Authenticate with your Apple ID
    6. Open Firefox
    7. Navigate to chrisweigant.com
    8. Login and check the "remember me" box

    Let us know if that helps. :)

  22. [22] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @m,

    i don't want a plethora, i want original content. and bashi is right, you used to be much better at it.

    Well, you told me I have a plethora. And I just would like to know if you know what a plethora is. I would not like to think that a person would tell someone he has a plethora, and then find out that that person has *no idea* what it means to have a plethora.
    -El Guapo, Three Amigos!

  23. [23] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    17

    You can try this, and it might work but all browsers on Apple ios (iphone/ipad) are just wrappers around webkit, the native Apple browser engine. Not the same as the Firefox desktop version which uses gecko as it's engine.

    Yes, dang it, forgot the United States is hopelessly behind a very large part of the world on this. There is hope in the form of the European Union Digital Markets Act of 2022 which has legislated changes coming to fruition (albeit slowly).

    Japan has mandated similar.

    The United States DOJ is working on it, in case anyone was wondering why Tim Apple (not his name) is bending the knee to the effin' moron who will sell America if it benefits him financially:

    Justice Department Sues Apple for Monopolizing Smartphone Markets

  24. [24] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    kick
    21

    Thanks — I just loaded it up.

  25. [25] 
    Kick wrote:

    MtnCaddy
    24

    You're certainly welcome, but please see Bashi's post at [17] where he explains how the Firefox desktop version that uses Gecko doesn't translate the same to Apple's operating system iOS because they keep control of third-party browser software by having them use Apple's WebKit native browser engine versus their own Gecko. So on your phone, this might work as well (or as bad) as the (likely) Safari web browser you're using. This actually currently applies to all third-party browser software on the iOS in the United States and is dumber than a bag of hammers.

    You might get no relief unless you get yourself a laptop and a wifi connection. :)

  26. [26] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    the country wanted a chaos presidency and now we've got one.

  27. [27] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    kick
    25

    Thanks for the information. I have WiFi but only an iPad.

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