ChrisWeigant.com

The GOP Race For Veep Is On

[ Posted Monday, May 22nd, 2023 – 15:42 UTC ]

Senator Tim Scott announced today that he is running to be Donald Trump's running mate. The veepstakes has begun!

[Perhaps I am being a bit too snarky. Allow me start over....]

Senator Tim Scott today announced his longshot bid for the Republican presidential nomination. The political media is paying more attention to Scott than some of the other GOP candidates, mostly because he has already raised over $20 million and will be able to run ads right up to the New Hampshire primary date. This means he'll have to at least be taken semi-seriously, but the reality of the situation is that the best Scott will likely be able to do is to get Trump to name him to the vice presidential spot on his ticket.

Scott is not alone in this endeavor, I should point out. Nikki Haley also seems to be in the running for Trump's veep slot. Others may join this effort, whether they run for president or not (South Dakota's Kristi Noem for one, and Kari Lake in Arizona certainly seems to be angling for it as well).

One major (undeclared) candidate who is definitely not running to be Trump's running mate is the one man who has already held the job, Mike Pence. Pence knows full well Trump is never going to choose him again. He seems to be running with the same strategy that all the 2016 GOP candidates ran on -- hope and pray that Trump either self-immolates or that some other Republican takes him out of the running somehow. Then swoop in and gather up all Trump's supporters. This, obviously, did not work as planned for anyone in 2016, but it's really all Pence has to hope for. Either that or he truly does believe God has somehow ordained it that he be America's next president -- with Pence, it is entirely possible that he honestly does believe that.

There are other candidates running, both announced and unannounced, but for now they all mostly fall into the "will be a trivia question some day" category. Not only are they never going to be the GOP nominee, but they also seem too insignificant for Trump to even consider as a running mate. This includes Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy probably thinks he's in the running for Trump's veep slot, but this seems pretty farfetched to me. Meanwhile, Hutchinson is the only candidate to date who is actually running against Trump. So far, the rest of them won't say a single bad word about Trump at all, which is an odd way to campaign against someone, you've got to admit (but an excellent way to run for his vice presidential pick).

Even the candidate in second place (Florida's Ron DeSantis) refuses to say Trump's name, preferring to take oblique shots at him, so as to not offend the MAGA army of voters too much. But it is highly doubtful that DeSantis would be considered a running mate for Trump, since: (1) Trump is viciously attacking him on a constant basis (seeing as how he's the only other candidate even in double digits in the polling), and: (2) DeSantis would probably turn down the job even if Trump offered it to him (he'd just continue being Florida's governor and wait until 2028 for another shot, most likely).

There are two more possible candidates who will join Hutchinson in actually running against Trump -- Chris Christie and Chris Sununu. Both of "the Chrises" (can't resist) have already been on the airwaves (in interviews, not ads) trashing Trump, and both would certainly take the fight directly to Trump if they run. This will disqualify them in Trump's eyes from ever being considered as a running mate, most likely. It's doubtful either of them would take the job if offered as well.

Of course, it is still extremely early and the polling could easily shift at any point, but if you look at the current state of the GOP field, you can easily see that nobody but DeSantis and Trump has caught on in even a minor way yet. Pence is the highest, in third place, averaging 5.6 percent support. This is likely due to the fact that everyone already knows his name -- he doesn't have to work to build "name recognition" the way all the other candidates do. This leaves everyone else below five percent, which is why at least for the moment most of them must certainly be thinking whether they'd accept a veep nod from Trump or not.

As for who Trump will actually pick, nobody knows. One thing that seems certain is that this time Trump won't be listening to campaign advisors telling him who will best shore up crucially-needed voter support (which is how Trump got Pence, because he was selected to reassure the evangelical vote). This time around, look for it to be a "gut feeling" selection from Trump. He's going to go with his favorite. Which is almost certainly going to amount to whichever person kisses up to Trump most successfully. The eventual nod might go to a candidate who ran against Trump and it might not -- Trump could easily choose some wildcard candidate, on a whim.

Running for president involves at least some self-delusion, because you have to have an ego big enough to think that somehow you'll run the perfect campaign and win the big prize. So I'm sure Nikki Haley and Tim Scott can plausibly outline how they're going to surprise everyone and walk away with the nomination. But this seems pretty farfetched, unless Trump does somehow spectacularly implode.

Tim Scott seems to be running as the next incarnation of Ronald Reagan. His announcement was filled with sunshine and optimism. He's got an up-by-the-bootstraps personal story and he is going to lead the Republican Party back to being bright and positive about the future. At least, that's what he believes. His strategy is clear: lean heavily on his own religious faith and convince the voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire to take a chance on him. Being a Black Republican might help him out, or it might not (especially in those first two states, which are overwhelmingly White).

Scott is going to try to walk the same tightrope that Nikki Haley is now walking -- gently pointing out how they would be a better choice than Trump, but without making it in the least degree personal. It's more: "Hey, I voted and supported Trump too, but do you really want to lose another election?" than it is pointing out any of Trump's actual flaws, in other words. When asked about Trump's flaws (such as his legal problems), they'll always offer up some version of: "I would much rather concentrate on the future than talk about Donald Trump being stuck in the past." They're moving on, Trump is dragging the party backwards. Without actually addressing why this is, of course.

Of course, Trump's probably not going to announce his veep pick until the 2024 Republican National Convention, unless he breaks tradition and names someone early (always a possibility, with Trump). Either way, we've all got a lot of time before we get to that point (and hey, one of the other Republicans might actually defeat Trump for the nomination... anything could happen, right?). But even though Tim Scott's got a lot of money to spend, he's still got to cope with the fact that he is currently polling at 1.8 percent while Trump is polling at 56.3 percent. Which is why, from Day One of Scott's campaign, it seems like the best he can hope for is to win the GOP veepstakes.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

10 Comments on “The GOP Race For Veep Is On”

  1. [1] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Being Donald's VP pick may end up paying early dividends, since the prospect of him imploding mid campaign is at least plausible.

  2. [2] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    I am surprised you passed on the idea that Scott will never, ever, be Trump's VP pick, because he is Black. VP Scott, with Trump elderly and in poor health, means the incredibly and thoroughly racist Trump base would find itself very likely voting for *another* goddamned Black president.
    Trump's not so dumb as to pick a VP that would actually alienate his base, no matter what arguments one might make that Scott would broaden the GOP ticket's appeal to the legendary independents and suburban moms.

  3. [3] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    If Donald thought putting a black man on the ticket would give him a win, he'd do it.

  4. [4] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Yes, I don't think Trump worries about alienating his base.

  5. [5] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Tim Scott is definitely the perfect VP for Trump! If Trump chooses him as his running mate, then the Republicans believe the Democrats will stop referring to them as “White Nationalists” and “KKKonservatives”… terms that all Republicans except MTG are uncomfortable being called. (Greene actually prefers to be referred to as these as seen on her

    Bottom line, Scott —or, “Uncle Tim” as his GOP co-workers lovingly refer to him, — is just what the GOP needs to defend against the claims that they are all racist bigots.

  6. [6] 
    Kick wrote:

    CW

    Scott is not alone in this endeavor, I should point out. Nikki Haley also seems to be in the running for Trump's veep slot. Others may join this effort, whether they run for president or not (South Dakota's Kristi Noem for one, and Kari Lake in Arizona certainly seems to be angling for it as well).

    Now that Kari Lake has lost her final court case wherein she hysterically claims in Trumpian fashion "I won the election," she is definitely (still) not busy being governor of Arizona in the same manner Trump ain't POTUS. These two idiots are perfect for each other.

  7. [7] 
    Kick wrote:

    CW

    This, obviously, did not work as planned for anyone in 2016, but it's really all Pence has to hope for. Either that or he truly does believe God has somehow ordained it that he be America's next president -- with Pence, it is entirely possible that he honestly does believe that.

    Unpossible, CW. We all saw that fly land on the head of "Hang Mike Pence," and you know what that means. /s

    Having said that, I will say that it is entirely possible that Mike Pence actually does know what he informed that federal grand jury while under sworn oath to God. Just saying. :)

  8. [8] 
    Kick wrote:

    nypoet22
    3

    If Donald thought putting a black man on the ticket would give him a win, he'd do it.

    Trump already thought putting Kanye West on a ticket would give him a win. After his loss, Trump cannot stop himself from whining hysterically: "The election was rigged."

    In point of fact, Trump knows it was rigged all kinds of ways... in his favor.

    Poor Donald. Sucks to rig an election and still lose it... and he's lost it in many more ways than one. :)

  9. [9] 
    Kick wrote:

    ListenWhenYouHear
    5

    Exactly right about Empty Greene.

    Love you, Russ. XOXO

  10. [10] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Kick,

    Love ya to the moon and back, sweet friend!

    R

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