Electoral Math -- The Race Tightens A Bit

[ Posted Monday, October 19th, 2020 – 18:14 UTC ]

Once again, it is time for our Monday rundown of the state-level polling in the presidential race. Since last week, Donald Trump has returned to the campaign trail in a big way, after his quick recovery from COVID-19. His rallies are (as usual) packed shoulder-to-shoulder with nary a mask in sight, even though we're on the leading edge of the next big wave of infections across the country (indeed, in many of the states Trump is travelling through).

This is Trump's final message -- ignore the disease, and maybe it'll go away. This is reckless and irresponsible, but it is also classic Trumpian behavior. One does wonder how many independents (especially out in the suburbs) this is going to turn off, but Trump really doesn't seem to care at this point.

Last week, instead of the second scheduled presidential debate, we got duelling townhalls on different television channels. Joe Biden appeared calm and collected and downright presidential. Donald Trump got grilled mercilessly by Savannah Guthrie (of all people), and reacted with his usual bombast and falsehoods and gaslighting. This week, we'll have what was supposed to be the third presidential debate (which is now the second), which will be the last real chance Trump will have to turn his campaign around. This chance has already shrunk considerably, since almost 30 million people have already cast their ballots.

Trump is trying to push an "October surprise" based on dubious emails about Hunter Biden, but at this point nobody (outside of Fox News) really cares. It is not going to have the same impact as Hillary Clinton's email revelations late in the game, but that's not going to stop Trump from trying. Trump is also going to crow about confirming another Supreme Court justice, but again this is not likely to resonate outside of his own base voters.

Instead, the real October surprise isn't all that surprising, because the experts have been predicting it for months now. The pandemic is beginning to rage across the country once again, and we're seeing numbers we haven't seen since the last wave hit at the beginning of the summer. If these numbers keep going up for the next week or so, it will almost certainly be the biggest issue on voters' minds in the election. Trump, astonishingly, is out there ridiculing Joe Biden for listening to the doctors and the experts, ridiculing Anthony Fauci (who is much more trusted by the public than Trump), while continuing to hold "superspreader" events at all his rallies. The disconnect between Trump's "we're turning the corner" gaslighting and Joe Biden taking the crisis very seriously is downright jarring.

In any case, as usual all the data necessary to produce these Electoral Math columns comes from the excellent website, who is still the best source anywhere for tracking state-level polling across the nation. Let's dive right into the numbers, with a first look at how each candidate is doing relative to the other. The following chart shows Electoral Votes (EV) for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden's numbers start from the bottom and are in blue, and Trump's are in red and go down from the top. Whichever candidate is across the 50 percent line will win the election, if all the polls are correct and nothing changes in the next two weeks.

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

The week began with the "Tied" category (in white) disappearing altogether, as Ohio moved into Trump's column. On the same day, Georgia swung over to Trump, leading to a dip in Biden's total. However, a poll the very next day swung the state back to Biden, leaving the only real change for the week Trump's addition of Ohio to his total.

For the week, Biden started at 356 EV, dipped briefly down to 340 EV, and then finished right where he started. Trump went from an initial 164 EV up to 196 EV (with the addition of both Ohio and Georgia), and then fell back to 182 EV, where he finished the week.

In other words, not a whole lot of changes in the overall totals. Percentage-wise, Biden stayed exactly where he was last week at 66 percent of the Electoral College, while Trump improved four points up to 34 percent. This is a perfect 2-to-1 split, you'll note, two weeks out from Election Day.

However, there was a bit more movement when you take a closer look at the relative levels of support from each state for the two candidates. Which brings us to our next chart. As always, these are broken down into three categories: "Strong" (10 points up in the polls or better), "Weak" (from 5 to 10 points up), and "Barely" (less than a 5-point lead). Let's take a look at Biden's chart to start with.

Biden Electoral Math

As you can see, there has been quite a bit of movement since the last time we took a look at this chart. Overall, as the previous chart showed, nothing changed for Biden. But within each category, things got both better and worse for Biden, in different states.

Biden's big improvement came in the Strong category, the lowest line on the chart. He started the week with 200 EV here, then added both New Hampshire and Virginia to rise to 217 EV at the end. This means Biden only has to win 53 EV in states he is polling lower than 10 points, so it is good news indeed.

However, those two states came from the Weak category, which bounced around quite a bit this week. The very start of the week saw a big drop in this category, as Florida moved down to only Barely Biden. Those 29 EV could be the key to the entire election, so this is a setback. Biden's Weak column did improve from that point, when Arizona firmed up for Biden -- but this only lasted a few days, and it eventually moved back to being only Barely Biden. Biden started off the week with a whopping 108 EV, which fell with the loss of Florida down to 79 EV the first day. With New Hampshire, Virginia, and Arizona moving around, Biden finished the week with only 62 EV in the Weak category.

However, overall, things didn't change, as states merely shifted categories. This meant that Barely Biden grew as Weak Biden shrank. In the Barely column, Biden started the week at 48 EV, and then improved with the addition of Florida to 77 EV. Georgia wobbling was the one dip in the topline of the chart, but Biden would close the week with these 77 EV in his Barely column.

As always, though, the most important line on that chart is the "Strong Plus Weak," since this is the best measure of which states a candidate can feel at least somewhat confident of winning. And by this measure, Biden didn't have a particularly good week. Not disastrous, mind you, but moving in the wrong direction nonetheless. Let's take a look at this line, compared to the last three Democratic presidential candidates at the same point in the race.

Democrats Strong/Weak

Last week, Biden had an impressive 308 EV in the Strong Plus Weak category. However, as I've been warning all along, Florida was the biggest reason his numbers were so high here. With Florida softening to only Barely Biden, his line on this chart took a big hit to start the week off, dropping down to 279 EV. He did see some improvement when Arizona got stronger for Biden, but then this dropped back again today. Biden's line moved up to 290 EV but then back down again to finish the week at 279 EV.

Historically, at the start of the week Biden was running behind both Barack Obama's 2008 numbers and Hillary Clinton's numbers (which experienced a one-day spike and then started a disastrous downhill slide). Biden moved above both of them briefly, but then finished the week just below where Obama was at this point twelve years ago (at 286 EV).

The big question, of course, is whether Biden will follow in the footsteps of Clinton or Obama over the next two weeks. Obama hit his highest point of the entire election soon after (rising to 317 EV), while Clinton struggled (and ultimately failed) to keep her numbers above the magic 270 line.

Now, it is worth pointing out that this chart is not an indication of success or failure in the final outcome. You'll note that Obama won both his races, despite being (at this point) at only 237 EV in the 2012 race. And while Hillary finished stronger than Obama did in 2012, she still lost the race in the end.

The biggest thing to watch -- on all these charts -- is how the last-minute deciders break. Now, this is hard to do because sometimes this trend doesn't even appear until a few scant days before the election. But it's what killed Hillary's chances last time around, because there was so much movement away from her after James Comey decided to stick his thumb on the scale so late in the game.

Will states firm up for Biden over the next week? That would certainly be a positive sign. If Biden's numbers start improving in Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, that could really seal the deal for him. And, of course, if Florida moves out of reach of Trump, that alone could spell the end of the race for the sitting president.

But while the race has indeed tightened a bit for Biden, he's still in excellent shape overall. Bear in mind that Biden currently has 279 EV polling 5 points or better for him, which is 9 EV more than he needs to win -- without even taking into account all the close races. If he can hang on to these states, it simply won't matter what happens elsewhere.

Now let's take a look at how Donald Trump is doing in the breakdown chart.

Trump Electoral Math

Trump also saw more movement than normal (for him) across all three categories this week. In his Strong category, Trump began the week with 87 EV, fell back and then rose to 93 EV before falling back again to finish the week at only 82 EV (a net loss of 5 EV). This was all due to Montana and Indiana softening up while South Carolina got stronger for Trump.

These numbers were all mirrored in his Weak totals, which moved from 30 EV to 24 EV and then finally up to 38 EV when Trump got a good poll from Alaska.

Trump's Barely numbers showed quite a bit move movement, however, as in the same day he added both Ohio and Georgia to his overall totals (Ohio had been Tied, Georgia had been Barely Biden). This jumped him up from 47 EV all the way up to 81 EV, but when Georgia wobbled right back to Biden's column, Trump lost half this bump. He would go on to finish the week with 62 EV in the Barely column.

Overall, this is one of the better points Trump has seen in the entire race so far. He spiked up to scrape the ceiling of 200 EV (which he couldn't quite manage, with only 198 EV for one day) -- an achievement he's only hit twice before. Still, even with the good news, Trump finished the week at only 164 EV overall, which is over 100 EV away from the goal.

Meanwhile, Trump's Strong Plus Weak line barely budged, once again. Let's take a look at his current numbers compared to the previous three Republican presidential races.

Republicans Strong/Weak

Donald Trump is almost exactly where he was four years ago, which is far below where John McCain or Mitt Romney were at this point in the race. In Strong Plus Weak, Trump regained Alaska's 3 EV that he lost a few weeks back, to put him back up to 120 EV. Four years ago, Trump was at 117 EV with two weeks to go.

At this point, John McCain was over 150 EV and Mitt Romney was at 180 EV, it is worth noting. But, as with the Democratic numbers, this is no indication of success. McCain and Romney went on to lose, while Donald Trump began his come-from-behind rise that would put him just barely over the top.

It's also worth noting that this was possible because of the collapse of Hillary Clinton in the final weeks. If Biden can avoid a catastrophic repeat, he's still heavily favored to win the overall race. Donald Trump has only 120 EV he can really count on winning, two weeks out. This is less than half the total he needs. He would need to somehow win 150 EV more to pull off another surprise victory. The chances are against that happening, but (as he proved before) nothing is impossible in electoral politics.


My Picks

I was pretty bold last week in moving states around, so there wasn't a whole lot of movement to speak of this week. Almost all of it was within the subgroupings, as states shifted back and forth between Safe and Probable for each candidate, for the most part.

Trump's polling slump due to catching the coronavirus did largely reverse itself, most likely due to his speedy recovery. We still haven't seen any reaction in the polling to the duelling townhalls last week, although a million more people watched Biden than Trump, for whatever that is worth. We've got the final debate this week, which is the last time the two candidates will face each other before Election Day.

The biggest unknown, at this point, is really how bad the next wave of the pandemic will become in the next two weeks. If daily cases start posting higher-than-ever numbers (roughly 75,000 cases a day or worse), then this could be very bad news for Trump. If Trump sticks to his: "we're turning the corner" line while Biden counters it (as he has recently been doing) with: "we're not turning a corner -- instead Trump has gone around the bend," then it's going to be painfully obvious which candidate is living in the real world and which is trapped inside some fantasy of his own creation.

The categories for this section -- which are my own picks, based upon both polling and gut feeling, please note -- are broken down into "Safe," "Probable," and "Lean" for each candidate, as well as "Too Close To Call" at the end for the real tossups. And as always, there is a full list of data at the end showing where exactly I've placed each state, along with their individual EV totals.


Likely States -- Biden

Safe Biden (22 states, 253 EV)
Last week, we optimistically moved five states up to the Safe Biden category. This week, four of them stayed put, while one seems a little too weak to justify being here. In both New Hampshire and Virginia, new polls appeared which showed Biden with strong leads (proving earlier polls which were closer were likely just outliers).

Of the three battleground states which moved up last week, Michigan just seems to keep getting stronger for Biden. The latest poll shows him up by a whopping 11 points. However, both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seem to be tightening a bit. In both states, the most recent poll only shows a 5-point lead for Biden, while previous polling showed a larger gap. A case could be made that both states should move back to only Probable Biden, but I'm going to split the difference and move Pennsylvania down while keeping Wisconsin here. This is more gut feeling than numerical analysis, since Pennsylvania tends to worry me more.

In a similar gut-feeling sort of move, though, I'm elevating Nevada from Probable Biden up to Safe Biden, because no matter how many times Trump or his stooges visit the state I think in the end it'll wind up in Biden's column. The polling has been pretty good for him, although Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll.

Probable Biden (2 states, 26 EV)
As just mentioned, Nevada moved up to Safe Biden while Pennsylvania moved back down. The only other state in Probable Biden is Minnesota, and a case could be made for moving it up to Safe Biden as well, but we haven't seen a poll out of the state for a week, so for now I'm going to leave it here.


Likely States -- Trump

Safe Trump (18 states, 117 EV)
I'm going to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt in three states this week, moving them all up from Probable Trump to Safe Trump. The polling in all three -- Alaska, Missouri, and South Carolina -- isn't overwhelming, but my gut tells me Trump is going to win all three pretty easily.

Alaska is another one of those states that is notoriously hard to poll, and the race seems to be tighter there than in the other two states, but in the end I think Trump will chalk up a victory up north. Missouri hasn't seen much polling at all, but again I seriously doubt Biden can pick the state up. South Carolina has had more polling than the other two, and recently the polls have even gotten closer, but in the end even if Democrats have a shot at dethroning Lindsey Graham I think there will be enough ballot-splitting to ensure a Trump victory.

I did move one state down from Safe Trump to Probable Trump, because the latest poll out of Montana was surprisingly close, with Trump up only six points. This may prove to be an outlier, but for now I'm moving Montana down to only Probable Trump as a result.

Probable Trump (1 state, 3 EV)
All movement here has already been discussed. All three states from last week moved up, while Montana moved down. I had moved Montana up to Safe Trump last week, but now am having second thoughts after that recent poll. So it takes its place as the only Probable Trump state this week.


Tossup States

Lean Biden (4 states, 71 EV)
Although I'm not feeling overconfident about any of them, I'm going to keep Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina here this week. All three could easily be seen as Too Close To Call, though.

In Arizona, the race has tightened up, but Biden still seems to be holding a steady lead of three points or better. In both Florida and North Carolina, the latest poll showed a perfect tie, but all the other polling shows Biden with a very slight lead. So my gut is telling me that all three should still be considered at least Lean Biden.

In a fit of optimism, we're going to also move Georgia up from Too Close To Call to Lean Biden. The latest poll showed Biden with a lead of almost five points, although other polling shows a much tighter race. But while we may have to move the state right back down next week, for now we're going to consider it a Lean Biden state.

Lean Trump (2 states, 44 EV)
To balance that fit of optimism, however, we're going to leave Texas as a Lean Trump state even though the most recent poll showed Biden up by a single point. The polling has been pretty consistently neck-and-neck, so by the numbers alone it should be in the Too Close To Call category, but like many Democrats I'm kind of tired of the eternal game of waiting for Texas to flip to blue. I'll believe it when I see it, in other words, but until then (or until some clearer polling arrives), I'm going to leave Texas as at least Lean Trump.

The other state in this category is Arkansas, which didn't move. There has been only one poll from the state for the entire race (in early June), but it was so close that it's hard to see the state as even Probable Trump at this point.

Too Close To Call (2 states, 24 EV)
Due to that fit of optimism, the Too Close To Call category is smaller than ever, with only two states so perfectly balanced that they're true tossups. Both Iowa and Ohio keep on flipping and flopping between Trump and Biden, meaning the margin of victory will likely be incredibly small in both states (and we may have to wait a few days to find out who won them). But the notable thing is that, with the loss of Georgia, there are only two states here this time around.


Final Tally

We've only got two more of these columns to go, folks. And at two weeks out, things still look pretty peachy for Joe Biden.

Overall, his Electoral College numbers are better than Trump's by a factor of 2-to-1. Biden has 279 EV which are either Safe or Probable at this point. Trump has only 120 EV locked up.

To put this another way, Donald Trump has to win at least one state Biden already considers locked up (Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin) to even have a chance of winning the Electoral College. If those five states go for Biden, then none of the other close states will even matter. And for Trump to actually win, he'd have to not only poach one of those five, he'd also have to completely run the table in every single other close race (Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas). That is a very tall order indeed.

On the other hand, if Biden wins just one of the big tossup states (such as Florida), then the race is all over and the only thing we'll be waiting to hear will be how big an Electoral College victory margin Biden can rack up.

Overall, if you add in the states which are merely leaning, Biden's got at least 350 EV to Trump's 164 EV. Trump will have to make up a deficit of 106 EV, even after winning Texas.

But Trump is running out of time for any sort of game-changing event to happen. More people are voting early than ever before -- 30 million of them and counting. Those votes will be locked in no matter what happens in the next two weeks, and that number will likely be a lot higher (perhaps as high as 50 million) by the time the two candidates hold their final debate. Some are predicting an overall turnout of perhaps 150 million votes, which would blow away the old record.

Trump, to be blunt, is running out of time. All Biden really has to do at this point is run out the clock. Barring a landscape-changing event (like James Comey's announcement, four years ago), this dynamic could remain unchanged until the very end.


[Full Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)

Joe Biden Likely Easy Wins -- 24 States -- 279 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 22 States -- 253 Electoral Votes
California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 26 Electoral Votes
Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20)


Donald Trump Likely Easy Wins -- 19 States -- 120 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 18 States -- 117 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 1 State -- 3 Electoral Votes
Montana (3)


Tossup States -- 8 States -- 139 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Biden -- 4 States -- 71 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15)

Tossup States Leaning Trump -- 2 States -- 44 Electoral Votes
Arkansas (6), Texas (38)

Too Close To Call -- 2 States -- 24 Electoral Votes
Iowa (6), Ohio (18)


Polling data gaps:

Polled, but no recent polling data -- 9 States
(States which have not been polled since the middle of September, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)

Arkansas (6/10), Connecticut (5/24), Kentucky (9/14), North Dakota (3/5), Massachusetts (8/27), Mississippi (2/28), Oklahoma (9/8), Tennessee (5/22), Vermont (9/15)

No polling data at all, yet -- 7 States
(States which have not been polled so far this year.)

Idaho, Louisiana, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Washington D.C., Wyoming


-- Chris Weigant


Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant


29 Comments on “Electoral Math -- The Race Tightens A Bit”

  1. [1] 
    SF Bear wrote:


    The intro to your column was a litany of all the ways Trump is screwing up so why is the race getting closer? Logic would indicate Trump would be faltering yet he is ahead of where he was a month ago. Why do you think that is?

  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    @sf bear,

    after royally screwing up the entire country's covid response, donald had probably hit his floor of support already. at this point it's probably just measurement error. if there is some systematic way in which donald's support is being underrepresented by polls, he may yet prevail. however, i don't think any of these changes are meaningful in that respect.


  3. [3] 
    Kick wrote:

    I had moved Montana up to Safe Biden last week, but now am having second thoughts after that recent poll.

    ^^^^^^^^^^ Fix that, please. ^^^^^^^^^^

  4. [4] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    yeah, that was a clear type-o

  5. [5] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    SFBear [1] -

    You're right, but races always seem to tighten at the end. I think it might be either the fence-sitters finally heading for one candidate or the other, or people getting so sick of politics that they stop answering the phone.

    But I really don't know why this rule of thumb always seems to happen.

    Kick and nypoet22 -

    OK, fixed. Good eye. Mea culpa.

    When writing these, I often tend to use shorthand in the first draft and just type "moved to Lean" and then when I edit it I try to be more explicit and define the categories better. But you're right, I blew this one in the editing. It's now fixed, and thanks for pointing the error out.


  6. [6] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Now that you pointed it out, there was a second error in that segment as well. Original text read:

    So it takes its place as the only Safe Trump state this week.

    That should have read "the only Probable Trump state," and it's now been fixed.


    Is it election day yet? Can't come soon enough for me...


  7. [7] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Did anyone else catch Lisa Desjardins' cat on the PBS Newshour tonight? Once again, kitty stole the show.



  8. [8] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I've started watching CNN pretty much exclusively these days. It's just way more fun. :)

  9. [9] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    More fun than what?

  10. [10] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    The Drumpf campaign musical choices get weirder and weirder. I was listening a journalist report from his death cult rally yesterday and I'm pretty sure that Elton John's Funeral For A Friend was playing in the background.

  11. [11] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Tiffany would appear to be a sub-optimal surrogate for her dad. At some sort of bizarro-world gay pride campaign event, she said:

    I know what my father believes in. Prior to politics, he supported gays, lesbians, the LGBQIA plus!

    The orange doesn't fall too far from the tree. She may be the dumbest of them all.

  12. [12] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Why does political election polling so seemingly often "tighten up" in the final days?

    Is it reasonable to expect that certain newly in play states (North Carolina or Texas, for example) will if anything stay as they were, in this case, red?

    Again, dear Elizabeth, where is Trump going to get the votes this time around? He's never topped 50% approval, the Repugs got hammered in 2018, there are few fence sitters and the news just keeps getting worse for the Trump administration. Americans are standing in long lines to vote these bastards out. Joe could keel over right now and Kamala would still beat Trump.So relax, good woman, and enjoy the action.

  13. [13] 
    nypoet22 wrote:


    by cheating.


  14. [14] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Listen up, Fellow Travelers!
    This will fill you with cheer! In my case, along with my morning flagon of jo.

    Two More Funny Feelings about 2020. Hint: this POLITICO writer started posting his considered predictions a couple of weeks ago, which this edition links to. A sample,

    Generations of pollsters and journalists have fixated on the question of which candidate voters would rather have a beer with—a window into how personality translates into political success.

    Here’s the thing: Americans have been having a beer with Trump for the past four years—every morning, every afternoon, every evening. He has made himself more accessible than any president in history, using the White House as a performance stage and Twitter as a real-time diary for all to read. Like the drunk at the bar, he won’t shut up.

  15. [15] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:


    nypoet22 wrote:


    by cheating.


    Joshua I've read a lot of but by no means all of the various cheating scenarios out there. Cheating is not impossible but the longest of shots. While no one should trust the GOP to step up and do the right thing for Country over Party (impeachment et al) what scenario scares you the most? Please share link.

    I mean, it's not like they arent already cheating: voter suppression, making voting harder for Democrats, etc. But to steal the Presidency away from the voters?

  16. [16] 
    nypoet22 wrote:


    it's a bit of a rabbit hole, but feel free:

  17. [17] 
    dsws wrote:

    Is it election day yet?

    Well, I voted on Saturday.

    Things are looking better than I thought they would, but Democrats are masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Millions of votes may yet be lost to slow mail, voter suppression, error, and outright fraud. We heard about the relatively legitimate "official" ballot drop boxes in California. How many "official" drop boxes are out there that we won't hear about until November fourth, that the R&Rs have put out with no intention of ever collecting the ballots from? I wish I could take for granted that it's none, but I can't.

  18. [18] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Just in time, here's my Homeboy Keith Olbermann.

  19. [19] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    And Michael Steele adds his two cents to the Lincoln Project, Imagine.

  20. [20] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:



    K, it was not quite the rabbit hole I expected. But shenanigans as described -- even in a notorious place like Broward County -- are disconcerting.

    This is an example of GOP loyalty to Party over loyalty to the rule of law, loyalty to Country.

    For what it's worth, I've worked the elections on the Precinct level many times here in California. I'm convinced that they've got it thought out such that ballot box stuffing (or destroying ballots) is neigh unto impossible. Every State does it their own way so I can only vouch for CA. a
    But there's a lot of integrity in the other elections people I've met over 18 elections, and no reason to think it's different everywhere (besides 2016 Broward County, that is.)

  21. [21] 
    Kick wrote:

    John From Censornati

    The Drumpf campaign musical choices get weirder and weirder. I was listening a journalist report from his death cult rally yesterday and I'm pretty sure that Elton John's Funeral For A Friend was playing in the background.

    Anyone who isn't already aware that Elton John is a musical genius need only listen to his masterpiece "Funeral for a Friend." He explained he was composing the type of music he wanted to be played at his own funeral, and that's what he created. The song "attached to it" called "Love Lies Bleeding" is basically "forgettable," but "Funeral for a Friend" is one of the most badass songs ever composed by John.

    What does Elton John think about Donald? Trump had asked him to play at his inauguration festivities. After turning it down, he explained:

    I don't really want my music to be involved in anything to do with an American election campaign. I'm British. I've met Donald Trump, he was very nice to me, it's nothing personal, his political views are his own, mine are very different, I'm not a Republican in a million years. Why not ask Ted Nugent? Or one of those f------ country stars? They'll do it for you.

    ~ Elton John

    I'm not exactly sure why the Trump morons thought Elton John would want to be associated with the Donald whom Elton described as a "barbarian" at a fundraising concert for Hillary Clinton.

    Trump wants so desperately to be accepted by Hollywood celebrities just as much as he longs to be accepted by Broadway celebrities and New York "society," but the problem with that is they know exactly who he is and will never accept him... that thing he will never have that he covets the most. He really is a modern-day Benedict Arnold... a sick man who will sell out America's secrets for the billion plus he's in debt if he's allowed. Don't doubt it.

  22. [22] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    New article is up early (for once). Go check it out. It's really just me spiking the football, if truth be told. Sometimes I get things wrong predicting the future, but sometimes I nail it...



  23. [23] 
    Kick wrote:

    Oh, boy. Football! :)

  24. [24] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    JFC [10] -

    Wow. What's next, Black Sabbath's "Electric Funeral"?


    I mean, his song selections have never made much sense:

    "You Can't Always Get What You Want" (about heroin addiction)

    "YMCA" (about random gay sex in the pre-AIDS era)

    "Fortunate Son" (about how rich people buy their way out of military service)

    So I guess it's not all that surprising...

    MtnCaddy [14] -

    Aha! You read that article too! See my column today...


    dsws [17] -

    I'm still working my way through all the ballot initiatives. Will be dropping my ballot off directly at the county clerk's office. No middleman = no worries.



  25. [25] 
    Kick wrote:


    Well, I voted on Saturday.

    You voted on caturday!? :)


  26. [26] 
    Kick wrote:


    Well, I voted on Saturday.

    Another voter! :)


  27. [27] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Kick [21]

    re: Love Lies Bleeding

    I know it's only rock n roll, but I like it.

  28. [28] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    I don't know why this popped into my head. It's from "The Flesh Failures/Let The Sunshine In" from Hair:

    Listening for the new-told lies
    With supreme visions of lonely tunes.



  29. [29] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:


    More fun than what?

    ... than the PBS Newshour, you know. :)

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