The First Debate Will Be Crucial
This year's presidential campaign, like just about every other aspect of American life during the coronavirus pandemic, is going to be different than any we've seen before. How different is still an open question, because nobody really knows where the country will be in a month or two. Perhaps the pandemic will significantly abate. Conversely, it could get far worse with the advent of the yearly flu season. Either one would affect how the two candidates campaign. But there is one thing that appears pretty obvious at this point -- the first presidential debate is going to be absolutely critical.
Today, the moderators for all four debates (three presidential, one vice-presidential) were announced. Surprisingly, after what we saw during the Democratic primary debates, there will only be one lone moderator for each debate. This is a good thing, in my opinion, because at times the "tag-team moderation" format can get pretty chaotic. One strong moderator will avoid this altogether. But the best news to me is that the first debate will be moderated by Fox News host Chris Wallace.
This might seem strange for me to say, but I'm actually being consistent (I've always been a fan of Wallace, in fact). While some Democrats may recoil in horror from the concept of a Fox News personality running the first debate, I would venture to guess that they have never actually watched Chris Wallace's Fox News Sunday program. Personally, I consider him to be one of the best interviewers on the Sunday morning political airwaves.
Wallace grew up in a television broadcasting family (his father Mike was a well-respected television journalist). But what makes him a great interviewer is that he doesn't have one big worry that journalists on other channels do -- that conservatives are going to attack their supposedly "pro-liberal bias" on a regular basis. Wallace appears on Fox News after all, which goes a long way toward insulating him from any such criticism. He's no flaming lefty, in other words, and accusing him of liberal bias is downright laughable on its face.
This frees him up to ask both sides of the political aisle tough questions -- which he routinely does. He uses this freedom to bore in on conservative politicians in a manner rarely seen on NBC or CBS. He refuses to take their easy brush-off answers at face value, and he continues asking the key questions until he either gets a real answer or it becomes apparent that none will be forthcoming.
Of course, he also asks these tough questions to liberal politicians as well. And he refuses to take their focus-group-tested brush-off answers either. That's what makes him a good journalist, in fact, because he doesn't accept face-value nonsense from either side.
Wallace also calls politicians out on factual matters, which used to be so routine it wasn't even worth commenting upon. But in these Trumpian days of "alternative facts" (thank you, Kellyanne), Wallace almost always refuses to accept bald-faced lies and instead confronts the liars with documented truth and facts. Once again, this has (sadly) become increasingly rare on other broadcast television networks.
It will be interesting to see how both Joe Biden and Donald Trump interact with Chris Wallace at the end of the month (the first debate will take place on September 29th). Biden hasn't been giving all that many press conferences, although he did just appear at one today. Trump has been giving the appearance of being open to the press, but his many press conferences are often mostly filled with his prepared remarks, leaving time for only three or four questions (at most) at the end of it. And, notably, Trump just shuts things down and stalks off whenever he gets a question he doesn't want to answer (or can't answer).
Trump also allows few followup questions at all. This means he gets a question and then is allowed to reframe it in whatever manner he chooses -- often ignoring the actual question he was asked -- only to then quickly move on to a more-friendly journalist. This will simply not be possible during a two-hour debate with only one moderator. He's not going to be able to move on to another questioner, and while he could always stalk off the stage if he wanted to, it certainly wouldn't do him much good politically.
Personally, I even wonder if we're only going to get one debate. Team Trump has been making lots of noise about how confident they are about the debates, even pressing to have an extra debate added to the schedule. They feel that Trump will be a far better debater than Biden, therefore more debates would be better for them. However, this is echo-chamber thinking, because all they are really doing is buying into the storyline that Joe Biden is some doddering old fool who can't put two sentences together without a TelePrompTer. This caricature is completely false -- just look at any of Biden's Democratic primary debates for proof. Biden is a feisty debater and pushes back strongly if he feels his position is being twisted by an opponent. He occasionally misstates a fact or says something odd, but he soldiers on. And since he was the clear frontrunner throughout much of the primary campaign, Biden always had a big target on him during the debates, and he took more than his share of incoming fire from the other Democratic candidates.
Trump, on the other hand, resembles Team Trump's Biden caricature more than Biden ever did. Trump gets almost every fact wrong. Trump has major problems stringing coherent sentences together. Trump is all bluster and very little actual substance. Which both Biden and Chris Wallace will most likely be pointing out, throughout the entire debate. Much to Trump's annoyance, no doubt.
Unlike his press conferences where Trump essentially acts as his own moderator, during a presidential debate he won't be able to dodge tough questions so effectively. He won't be able to move on to the next subject without getting challenged on his misdirection. His glaring lack of knowledge on all kinds of subjects is going to be painfully apparent. His false facts and apocalyptic stories based upon horsefeathers will be refuted in real time. Donald Trump hasn't faced anything like a presidential debate in four whole years, while Joe Biden had to endure multiple such debates just a few months ago. So which candidate do you think is going to be more rusty on the debate stage?
Trump's bluster is pretty easy to correct, since he likes telling the same false stories over and over again. This means debate prep for Biden will consist of memorizing lots of ways to debunk Trump's favorite stories -- of which there are many. Trump still hasn't learned basic facts like when the Spanish Flu pandemic started (1918, not 1917 as Trump always says) or when it ended (during World War I, not World War II). These will be pitifully easy for Biden to point out. If Biden really wanted to taunt Trump he could always challenge the size of his inaugural crowd -- a slight that Trump still hasn't gotten over.
In fact, if I were in charge of Biden's debate prep team, I would tell him to do one simple thing throughout the entire night. Every time Trump tells a whopper, keep a running tally. Just make marks on a piece of notepaper, whether you bother to challenge or correct Trump's misinformation or not. Then at the end of the evening, during the closing statement, hold up the piece of paper (with the total in big numbers, and circled, for effect) and say: "Well, the media fact-checkers might come up with a slightly different total, but by my count the president of the United States has lied to the American people 37 times tonight. Let me repeat that: 37 times. In the space of only two hours. Does anyone really want four more years of this pathological lying? I promise to level with the American people whether the news is good or bad -- something that Donald Trump is absolutely incapable of doing." Biden could then drop the mic, and walk off the stage.
This is why I do indeed wonder if we're only going to get a single debate. If Trump is badly embarrassed in the first one, he is going to throw an epic presidential temper tantrum. If Biden out-debates him by a mile -- and it is so obvious that everyone in the media admits it -- then Trump is going to cry foul and denounce Chris Wallace, the media, Joe Biden, TelePrompTers, the city which held the debate, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nancy Pelosi, George Soros... and anyone or anything else that pops into his head. Trump could then easily determine that "the whole debate process is rigged against me" and refuse to participate in the remaining two debates because "they're not being fair to me."
Now, I have no idea what the chance of this actually happening will turn out to be, but you've got to admit that it is higher than zero. Biden would have to have a very good night while Trump has a very bad night for this to happen -- neither of which is guaranteed. But if Biden clearly cleans Trump's clock in the first debate, then Trump petulantly refusing to do more is certainly within the realm of possibility. Which is why I'm glad Chris Wallace is slated to be the first debate moderator -- because we might not even get a second or third bite at this apple.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
I've always liked Chris Wallace.
The Fox News Sunday program has always been one of my favourites, though I haven't watched it for years. I liked Juan Williams and Biden has often been a guest.
With Chris Wallace, one debate will be quite enough!
But, Biden should demand more debates. Heh.
No. Biden has played that just right. No changes.
The Kentucky Derby is Saturday and that is going to draw a lot of protesters and counter-protesters to Louisville this weekend regarding the unresolved Brionna Taylor case. It could get ugly. Churchill Downs will have no spectators this year, so I'm not sure what they think they'll be disrupting.
Biden has played it right? How so?
Refusing to agree to any changes in the schedule. He can say that he's agreed to what's already on the table and let Big Orange back out, which is what they're already working on. They're complaining that the debates are after voting starts. It's just another version of "if I lose, it's rigged".
Unless Trump somehow does a wonderful job with the first debate (and how likely is that?), I'm sure he will skip debates 2 and 3. In fact, to me the only question is whether he cancels the second and third debates or flees in the middle of the first one as soon as he gets a probing question.
JFC,
I see.
andygaus,
Unless Trump somehow does a wonderful job with the first debate (and how likely is that?)
I'd like to see him try to stalk Biden. Hehehehehehehe.
In fact, it could be the other way around ...
They should stay 6 feet apart. Biden should have pepper spray ready just in case.
Heh.
Say, any Boz Scaggs fans around here? Getting my Sunday night lineup set ...
The orange one wants people in NC to vote twice (by mail and in person). LAW AND ORDER!
Chris Weigant
They feel that Trump will be a far better debater than Biden, therefore more debates would be better for them. However, this is echo-chamber thinking, because all they are really doing is buying into the storyline that Joe Biden is some doddering old fool who can't put two sentences together without a TelePrompTer.
That "echo-chamber thinking" is quite literally propaganda being pushed by Russia and echoed by the complicit GOP.
*
The Trump administration is withholding information regarding Russian propaganda attempts to influence the 2020 election, while the GOP and Trump disseminate said propaganda.
So to recap: Trump is Putin's parrot, Putin's puppet, and Putin's asset. Full stop. Trump is compromised, and the facts will eventually emerge. Expect more indictments of Trump cronies because more are coming.
15] Elizabeth Miller wrote:
Say, any Boz Scaggs fans around here? Getting my Sunday night lineup set ...
Do you mean the Boz Scaggs who grew up in Plano, Texas, and attended St. Marks School private school in Dallas where he met Steve Miller (yes, that Steve Miller) and they formed Dallas' first rock band, "The Marksmen," and who was vice-president of his junior class and a cheerleader his junior and senior years at St. Marks who graduated and attended the University of Wisconsin and played in a band there with Steve Miller (yep) and those two products of Dallas, Texas, then went on to play together in The Stever Miller Band until Boz went solo... that Boz Scaggs?
Never heard of him. :)
Yeah, that's the guy!
John From Censornati
16
The orange one wants people in NC to vote twice (by mail and in person).
Trump needs desperately to win reelection in order to avoid criminal prosecution himself, I know you know, JFC. Not sure it will help him in the State of New York, but he's got Billy Barr among others in his circle committing crimes for him so Trump encouraging the gullible morons who whine incessantly about voter fraud to actually commit voter fraud for him -- indeed a felony in most states -- should surprise no one at all.
LAW AND ORDER!
I know, right!? When everyone around you is being arrested and more indictments are coming and you know it, isn't it rather comical to refer to yourself as the "law and order candidate"? *laughs*
MAGA means My Ass Got Arrested
The gullible rubes eat this shit up and never question the conflicting messages coming out of the Orange Blowhole because that would require actually using reasoning skills. Ask yourself why someone would encourage you to commit a crime... better yet, ask Cohen, Manafort, Stone, Gates, Flynn, what it got them.
So to recap: Trump has made a career out of committing crimes, and now he's asking his gullible rank and file rubes to follow in his footsteps... "law and order." Have I mentioned lately that Benedict Donald is the biggest threat to our democracy? He is.
There were a LOT of polls released on Tuesday and none had good news for the GOP.
Sometimes I get a little confused about what day of the week it is due to the pandemic.
Me, too.
[9]
andygaus wrote:
Unless Trump somehow does a wonderful job with the first debate (and how likely is that?), I'm sure he will skip debates 2 and 3. In fact, to me the only question is whether he cancels the second and third debates or flees in the middle of the first one as soon as he gets a probing question.
I agree that it's more likely than not that there are NOT three full debates. I disagree with the notion that Trump will stalk off because of a tough question. Trump's track record suggests he'll just bullshit his way thru some kind of an answer -- because to flee the stage would be the lose face. And that ain't Trump's style.
[17]
So to recap: Trump is Putin's parrot, Putin's puppet, and Putin's asset. Full stop. Trump is compromised, and the facts will eventually emerge. Expect more indictments of Trump cronies because more are coming.
Yeah, apparently Rod Rosenstein decided to leave out the counterintelligence investigation of Trump and Russia when he handed over Comey's investigation to Mueller.
So Mueller thought that the FBI was on it while the FBI thought Mueller was on it. So the most important question -- do the Russians have control/influence over our President was NOT addressed.
What a cluster fuck our American political situation is!
[15][18]
So one day in roughly 1979 I was dittybopping down the street on the campus of the University of Michigan Ann Arbor. It was early spring at the time, blustery chilly but with hopeful signs of spring in evidence. I'm passing a record shop and suddenly I hear a perfect just effing perfect note for note rendition of "Lowdown" happening. I entered and went down the stairs to a basement studio and watched this band note for note just kill that song.
TO THIS DAY I remain convinced that I'd stumbled across Box Skaggs, doing his thing back in Ann Arbor.
Box Skaggs?
Okay sports fans, here's a recent Lincoln Project offering, called "POW" which addresses Trump's preference for Americans who weren't captured.
God day-yam! These Lincoln Project folks just kill it every time. Why can't the Democrats prose material like this?
Annnd... here's a little ditty, 'bout Don's Melania, compliments of Logan Guntzelman/Now This.
So t'would appear that neither candidate got any appreciable"bump" from their respective Conventions. No big surprise. People are being asked to"buy" one candidate or the other come November, and us sales professionals know that buying is an emotional event. But due to Trump Flu no one got to watch a Convention audience go apeshit bonkers over such and such speech so few prospective voters were moved either way. Even Trump's Super Spreader speech in front of 1,500 didn't generate enough oomph.
MtnCaddy
25
Yeah, apparently Rod Rosenstein decided to leave out the counterintelligence investigation of Trump and Russia when he handed over Comey's investigation to Mueller.
Did he, though? I know for a fact there were dozens of FBI agents embedded in the Mueller investigation, and I believe the counterintelligence investigation is still ongoing full steam ahead.
So Mueller thought that the FBI was on it while the FBI thought Mueller was on it. So the most important question -- do the Russians have control/influence over our President was NOT addressed.
FACT: There were approximately 40 FBI agents working with the Mueller team for multiple years. Their work is ongoing.
What a cluster fuck our American political situation is!
Vote D for Democracy or R for Russia. It is that simple. :)