ChrisWeigant.com

Hillary's Inevitable Inevitability Problem

[ Posted Tuesday, February 10th, 2015 – 16:52 UTC ]

While the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is already fiercely heating up, over on the Democratic side there is really only one question even being asked right now -- when will Hillary Clinton formally declare her candidacy? Will she wait until summer, or throw her hat in the ring during the spring? Whenever she does launch her campaign, she will inevitably face the same problem she grappled with the last time she ran. Call it her inevitability problem (or maybe her "inevitable inevitability problem," if you're trying to come up with a clever headline).

In 2008, Clinton's biggest flaw heading into primary season was that she began believing her own press releases about how she'd have the whole contest wrapped up by Super Tuesday. She'd easily brush off the upstart Obama, and then quickly pivot to her general election strategy. This, to put it mildly, did not come to pass exactly as Team Clinton foresaw it. It turns out she wasn't as inevitable as she had thought (she was more "evitable," perhaps?).

Hillary Clinton is no fool, though. She is well aware of what went wrong last time, and is likely staunchly determined not to make the same mistakes again. The only problem for her is that this time she really is looking inevitable -- the only challenger who could possibly give her a real run for the money has said repeatedly that she's not running in 2016. If Hillary did stumble badly (or have health problems), then Elizabeth Warren might reconsider, but for now the whole "draft Warren" movement is likely (inevitably?) going to lead to nothing but disappointment for the true believers. If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination and loses the presidency, then perhaps Warren might run in 2020; but count me among those who now take her at her word when she says she is not running in 2016.

Absent a Warren candidacy, Clinton looks pretty downright inevitable on the Democratic side. Two of the other Democrats considering a bid are essentially running for the vice presidential slot under Clinton (Jim Webb and Martin O'Malley), and the other one (Bernie Sanders) seems poised to run an ideological campaign that may pull Hillary leftwards, but is also almost destined to fall short in the actual primaries.

This leaves one big name, and Clinton's timing of her candidacy announcement may be influenced by when Joe Biden makes his intentions clear. Biden, notably, is traveling soon to the state of Iowa -- where I'm unaware of any pressing vice presidential business currently looming. Biden's long been interested in taking another run at the top job, and sitting vice presidents are always given a certain amount of deference by others in the party after a two-term presidency. If Biden makes his mind up in the next month or so, and starts actively putting together a campaign apparatus, then Clinton may be pressured to officially jump in the race earlier than she may have liked. Conversely, if Joe decides not to run, this pressure will evaporate.

Hillary Clinton is right now in a pretty comfortable position. Money is being raised in her name, but she's not officially in charge of the effort, so it demands none of her time. Unlike on the Republican side, Clinton can enjoy her position as the inevitable Democratic candidate and choose her battles in all the day-to-day shiny objects the political media loves to chase. Rather than getting grilled by reporters on a regular basis (as all the major Republican candidates are now subject to, on subjects from foreign policy to vaccinations), Hillary can make lots and lots of news with a single Twitter post (as she just proved, on the vaccination issue). That's a pretty enviable spot to be in, when it comes to the intersection of politics and the media.

The big question the pundits are all voicing now is what Hillary will run on. What will be the theme of her candidacy? What issues will she champion above all? What will her focus be, and what plans will she unveil as platform planks? If she's smart, she'll spend the next few months cloistered with her campaign team figuring all of this out. That way, when she does ultimately announce, she'll be able to hit the ground running.

But whenever she does formally jump in the race, she'll run smack into the inevitability problem. No matter what her rationale for running, she's going to immediately overshadow all other Democrats in the race. She is already doing so, in public opinion polling. Democratic voters are currently giving Hillary unheard-of margins (she outpolls Biden by something like 40 or 50 points) for a race with no incumbent running. This is not likely to change significantly for the next few months, since polling this early is largely nothing more than name recognition.

This is Hillary's strength -- her name recognition is as close to 100 percent as it is humanly possible to get in America these days. Everyone knows her. In the past two decades, she's been First Lady, a United States Senator, a frontrunner candidate for president, and Secretary of State. This time around, she'll add "grandmother" to the rest of the titles everyone has already known her by.

She will, no doubt, try to "reintroduce" herself to the country when she does formally begin campaigning. She is not exactly a fresh new face on the political scene, so she will attempt to make up for this by rolling out some fresh new ideas to run on. She won't have the total luxury of ignoring her Democratic opponents, because there is a large swath of the party which is a bit disillusioned with Clintonian centrism. Populism is in the air, and Hillary's seen by many of the Democratic rank and file as way too cozy with Wall Street. She's going to have to get even cozier with Wall Street to finance her run, but she'll also be bending over backwards to publicly present herself as a champion of Main Street. To put this another way, she'll likely have to run to the left of the political niche her husband occupied. How far to the left this actually is -- and how much of it is posturing versus actual belief -- are going to be the biggest subjects of conversation among Democratic voters for the next year or so.

Through it all, though, Hillary will be strenuously denying her own inevitability. If there's one thing she learned last time around, it is to never admit your own thoughts on being inevitable. The word "inevitable" will likely never pass her lips during the entire campaign, in fact. Look for her to instead offer up words of humility whenever asked about the subject -- with phrases such as: "I fully know I'm going to have to earn every vote," and "I don't take one single vote for granted -- I'm going to fight hard for each and every one." Look for Hillary to be humble to a fault, whenever the subject of the rest of the Democratic field arises. I can see Clinton making a few gaffes on the campaign trail (every candidate does, sooner or later), but I would confidently bet that none of them will be on the subject of the inevitability of her winning the Democratic nomination, because I think her campaign consultants are going to drill that one into her head above all else.

Which is ironic, because she is quite likely to get the primary campaign she dreamed about (and fully expected) the last time around. A few gadfly candidates to spar with, to warm her up for the general election, but no serious challenger in the polling (unless Biden runs and unexpectedly surges). Whether a lack of competition in the primaries will ultimately benefit her or hurt her in the general election campaign remains to be seen. But this time around -- although you'll never hear Hillary Clinton actually say it -- the entire race could indeed be wrapped up by Super Tuesday.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

8 Comments on “Hillary's Inevitable Inevitability Problem”

  1. [1] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    A few gadfly candidates to spar with, to warm her up for the general election, but no serious challenger in the polling (unless Biden runs and unexpectedly surges.[my emphasis!]

    Okay, now that last bit was H I L A R I O U S !!!

    Well, you know, it's just that I've never heard of such a thing as Biden surging in the polls. But, of course, that would be a sight for sore eyes ...

  2. [2] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    ...Clinton's timing of her candidacy announcement may be influenced by when Joe Biden makes his intentions clear. If Biden makes his mind up in the next month or so, and starts actively putting together a campaign apparatus, then Clinton may be pressured to officially jump in the race earlier than she may have liked. Conversely, if Joe decides not to run, this pressure will evaporate.

    Or, and this is the option I would prefer, ahem ... what if Biden announces his intentions early and clears the field! Oh, wait ...

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    The problem for the Dem Party is they have no fresh new candidate that will be running... After 8 years if Obama and the Democrats, the ONLY way that the American people will vote Democrat is if another 2007 Obama is on the ticket. And even then, the once-bitten-twice-shy concept might come into play..

    Hillary's problem is that she has skeletons in her closets that have skeletons in THEIR closets... You notice she has been keeping a REALLY low profile of late?? The secret Libya tapes has totally destroyed her chances of winning the General...

    2016 is the GOP's race to lose...

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    RNC to Hillary: Come Out, Come Out, Wherever You Are
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rnc-hillary-come-out-come-out-wherever-you-are_846823.html

    So, this is the candidate the Left wants, eh? :^/

    Michale

  5. [5] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    The Republican talking point campaign to depict HilRod as hiding because she hasn't officially started campaigning nearly two years before the election is as idiotic as it is amusing. I can hardly wait for them to start calling her an old hag as part of their not-war on women.

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Republican talking point campaign to depict HilRod as hiding because she hasn't officially started campaigning nearly two years before the election is as idiotic as it is amusing.

    Ya see, here is EXACTLY my point..

    Republicans talking about campaigning nearly two years before the election is "idiotic"..

    But Democrats who ACTUALLY campaign nearly two years before the election???

    Not a peep....

    Pure blatant hypocrisy...

    A word from the wise, JFC...

    If Hillary waits until summer and then announces she is NOT running, she will hand the election to the GOP even MORE so than if she was actually the candidate...

    Not so "idiotic" it seems, eh?? :D

    Michale

  7. [7] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Is Biden really interested in becoming President, or is he poised to dutifully take on the role of Designated Stalking Horse 2016? A Warren primary bid would shift the debate in some uncomfortable directions for the Democrats, as would a Sanders effort, not the least because he's technically an independent. Web and O'Malley lack credibility. Biden is about the best sparring partner Hillary could wish for. She knows it, and the Democratic Establishment knows it. Why not make it happen with a little discrete seed money for good soldier Joe?

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/11/us/politics/emerging-clinton-team-shows-signs-of-disquiet.html?_r=0

    It's all about money...

    And THESE are the people the Left wants to lead the country??

    Michale

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