ChrisWeigant.com

Snoozy Tuesday

[ Posted Tuesday, May 20th, 2014 – 18:02 UTC ]

Today is a big day for primary elections. Well, a medium-big day, maybe. But it is worth pointing out that it's nowhere near a "super" day. In the past few presidential election cycles, so many states voted in primary elections on one particular day that it merited the label "Super Tuesday." Today, the label is also being used by a few, but it's really a stretch to call it "super," when only six states are voting in their primary elections. In a few weeks, the third of June will beat that, with eight primaries occurring simultaneously.

Of course, if we're not calling it "Super Tuesday," then we've got to call it something else. "Stupor Tuesday" sounds pretty negative. "Duper Tuesday" just sounds silly. Perhaps, because today is likely to produce few surprises (and few Tea Party candidate wins) we should name it "Snoozy Tuesday." Whatever you call it though, I thought I'd offer up some random thoughts while waiting for the returns to come in.

The six states voting today are Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. I haven't done a whole lot of research into any of these races (I have been snoozing on the job, so to speak), so my thoughts will be fairly superficial, just to warn everyone in advance. Unless otherwise indicated, all the contests detailed below are for the nominations for the Senate races.

To begin with, haven't heard much of anything on the Arkansas race. Senator Mark Pryor will obviously win his primary, and the Republican side of the race doesn't seem to have generated much interest so far in the media. Guess we'll have to wait for the general election for news on this one, as Pryor is one of the GOP's major targets for a takeover in November.

In Georgia, we may have a family-oriented race in the fall. That's a polite way of saying it, without using such terms as dynastic (or nepotism, for that matter). Democrat Michelle Nunn is leveraging the power of her last name (her father Sam is still well-respected in the state), and David Perdue (the Republican who looks likely to win tonight) is a cousin of former governor Sonny Perdue. So it'll be the battle of the last names, in a way.

But before Georgia gets to that point, they'll likely have a runoff election between the top two Republicans, for their party's nomination. There are five big candidates in the GOP race, but the two Tea-Partiest of them have fallen way behind. This leaves three candidates with any sort of shot, and Perdue will likely have to face one of them in another few months -- which the Democrats hope will hurt him both financially and by being forced further to the right. The suspense today is in which other candidate Perdue will have to face in this runoff. If Perdue manages to pull over 50 percent of the Republican vote, this will be big news indeed, because by doing so, he'll avoid the runoff hassle. So far, though, nobody's predicting he'll manage this big a victory tonight.

In Idaho, there won't be much surprise, although some attention will be paid to the race for the Republican nomination for governor (due to the amusing nature of the debate the four candidates held).

Kentucky will be the big focus tonight, although the only real question is "how big will Mitch McConnell win?" This race was trumpeted to be a big showdown for the Tea Party, because it was briefly thought they'd be able to pull off an upset against the Senate Minority Leader. This collapsed when the challenger made an appearance at a cockfighting-rights rally (seriously -- you can't make this stuff up). It also collapsed because -- although McConnell's approval rating is in pretty dismal territory -- he also commands an immense campaign chest. Mitch is no stranger to spending millions of dollars on ads, folks.

Oregon's race on the Republican side got super-nasty at the last minute, as some last-minute mud was flung at Monica Wehby, the woman leading the polling. Somebody somewhere (perhaps a dastardly Democratic opposition researcher, it is now claimed) dug up the fact that her ex-boyfriend had called 911 and filed a "stalking" police report against her when the two broke up. This was leaked to the media in the final week leading up to the election. Oregon's not usually a place you think about as having such hardball politics, but it looks like Wehby'll probably win the Republican nomination in the end.

And finally, Pennsylvania, where there is a crowded field of Democrats vying to take on the very-unpopular Republican governor.

As you can see, it's really not super enough a Tuesday to get that excited about. While these races are big news within each of these states, few of them are that important on the national stage. The rout of Tea Party candidates by Establishment Republicans continues apace, disappointing many Democrats who would have much preferred crackpot Republican candidates to run against in November.

In the general election, of course, some of these states will be big news indeed. The Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia Senate races may indeed determine which party leads the chamber next year. Democrats will likely take the Oregon race easily. But whether Mitch McConnell gets beat or whether Michelle Nunn wins an upset in Georgia could be crucial. Arkansas, as well as two other states (North Carolina and Louisiana) are where current Democrats may be in serious trouble come November, though. But that's all in the future, and the only real questions that remain tonight are how big the margin of victory (and the turnout) will be for McConnell, and who David Perdue is going to face in the runoff election in Georgia.

So don't call it Super Tuesday, but instead a rather Snoozy Tuesday.

-- Chris Weigant

 

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2 Comments on “Snoozy Tuesday”

  1. [1] 
    Mopshell wrote:

    Just another Choose-day.

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    Oregon's race on the Republican side got super-nasty at the last minute, as some last-minute mud was flung at Monica Wehby, the woman leading the polling. Somebody somewhere (perhaps a dastardly Democratic opposition researcher, it is now claimed) dug up the fact that her ex-boyfriend had called 911 and filed a "stalking" police report against her when the two broke up. This was leaked to the media in the final week leading up to the election. Oregon's not usually a place you think about as having such hardball politics, but it looks like Wehby'll probably win the Republican nomination in the end.

    It should be noted that this incident occurred over 2 years ago and the ex who filed the report and Wehby are now best of friends..

    Context.. It's always about context..

    Mopshell,

    Just another Choose-day.

    Good one. I like that.. :D

    Michale

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