ChrisWeigant.com

Crabby Badgers?

[ Posted Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012 – 16:00 PDT ]

In the last primary season, back in 2008, three political entities clustered around the Potomac River all voted on the same day, and thus was born "Crab Cake Tuesday." This year, for some inexplicable reason, Virginia has decided not to vote on the same day as Maryland and the District of Columbia, and (again, inexplicably) Wisconsin replaced Virginia. Linking these three in a cute label has become much tougher as a direct result. The only thing we could come up with was "Crabby Badger Tuesday," which... well, we admit it, it's just too downright bizarre to be considered cute.

So we do apologize for the title of today's column, and invite others to come up with their own name for today's voting in the comments, if you should feel so inclined.

But enough of such nonsense, let's get on with our tradition of predicting the outcomes of today's races. As always, we start with a quick peek at our scoreboard for the year. The last contest was held in Louisiana, where we accurately predicted a Santorum win, which slightly boosted our score for the season:

Total correct 2012 primary picks so far: 38 for 57 -- 67%.

With that out of the way, let's move quickly on to our picks for tonight's races, which I regret to say, are about as conventional as you can get. In order of smallest-to-largest:

 

Washington, D.C.

This one's pretty easy, since Rick Santorum (whoops!) forgot to get his name on the ballot. Romney wins overwhelmingly -- perhaps by his biggest margin yet. Newt will likely come in a very distant second, over Ron Paul. No polling has been available for the District, but this seems like a pretty safe guess at this point.

 

Maryland

Mitt Romney wins a decisive victory in Maryland as well. If the polls can be believed, he'll likely get around twice the votes Santorum will manage, with Gingrich lucky to crack into double digits, and Ron Paul managing only fourth place.

 

Wisconsin

Wisconsin seems to be the race everyone's paying the most attention to, which is why we saved it for last. The Badger State would seem, geographically at least, to be a prime pickup for Santorum, as all the states he has so far won are contiguous on a map. Santorum has already won two of the four states which touch Wisconsin (Minnesota and Iowa), meaning Wisconsin would fit right in to his stronghold in the South and the Plains.

But the other two states which touch Wisconsin are Illinois and Michigan, and demographically Wisconsin is closer to these than to the states further west. This has shown up in the polling, where Romney has been maintaining what appears to be a 7-to-10 point lead.

The media may have missed it by focusing too much on Romney's "joke" about his dad closing down auto plants, but George Romney had strong ties to Wisconsin. The American Motors Corporation built Ramblers (and other cars we won't bother mentioning) in Kenosha for years and years -- something the older Wisconsin residents may fondly remember.

In any case, we're going to go with the conventional wisdom here, and call the state for Romney. Santorum will pick up second place in a closer race than the other two being held today, and Newt Gingrich will be embarrassed by a fourth-place finish behind Ron Paul.

The pundit universe appears to be ready to call the Republican race all but over should Romney win here decisively, but then my guess is that they're too addicted to the horserace aspect of our national nominating contest, and will continue to breathlessly present each primary or caucus as "a possible game-changer" for at least another month.

Those are my predictions, what are yours?

 

[Previous states' picks:]
[IA] [NH] [SC] [FL] [NV] [CO, MN, and MO] [ME] [AZ and MI] [WA] [Super Tuesday: AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, and VA] [Guam, KS, Virgin Islands, Northern Marianas] [Puerto Rico] [IL] [LA]

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

12 Comments on “Crabby Badgers?”

  1. [1] 
    Michale wrote:

    Looks like ya got a Sweep, CW

    Congrats

    Michale.....

  2. [2] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale -

    Woo hoo! 3-for-3!

    Although, really, this was a pretty easy one to pick.

    PA's going to be the next really close one, I think.

    -CW

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    You don't think it's all over for Santorum??

    Seems to me, the writing is on the wall.

    Michale....

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    So, whose the favorite for VP??

    I would LIKE to see Palin, so I can win that bet with Bashi... :D

    Christie would be a LOT of fun..

    http://sjfm.us/temp/fun.jpg

    :D

    But I think Rubio would be the best choice..

    I would LOVE to see Democrats try and make the case that Rubio doesn't have enough experience. :D

    Michale.....

  5. [5] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    my quatloos are on jeb bush. it's been literally forty years since the last winning republican ticket without a bush on it.

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    my quatloos are on jeb bush. it's been literally forty years since the last winning republican ticket without a bush on it.

    Good thought.. Hadn't considered another Bush..

    But I would think that would make it TOO easy for the Left to attack the ticket... And another Bush might galvanize the Left more so than the Right would like..

    On the other hand, I would have to say that Bush is more likely than Palin or Christie...

    Michale....

  7. [7] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Personally, I can't wait for the veep debate! :)

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Personally, I can't wait for the veep debate! :)

    "And the only person who could run against him would be Jack Nicholson. It would be the shortest debate in history. 'How can you debate me. You have opened your eyes in 30 years..' Boom baby, yer gone!!"
    -Robin Williams, LIVE AT THE MET

    :D

  9. [9] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    You don't suppose, Michale, that Romney might tap ... John McCain for his running mate? Stranger things have already happened.

    Biden debating McCain would be almost too good to be true. It would definitely be 'Game Over' for the Republican ticket.

    Questions, comments, insults ... quatloo wagers?

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    Interesting notion..

    It would definitely hit the high point on the WEIRD meter, that's for sure..

    Basically, there are two schools of thought..

    Romney might go the safe way and choose someone that brings a state or region to the table. Bush or Rubio would likely bring FL with him, Jindal would likely bring LA with him, etc etc..

    Or he might go the McCain way and choose someone that really shakes things up. Christie or Palin or Rice would be the obvious choice for that. Someone like that would also contrast Romney quite well, since we all know that, on the warmth scale, Romney is slightly above Senator Kerry..

    My guess is Romney will play it safe and go with a conventional choice.. The debacle with Palin probably soured Romney on making a splash. Further a "splash" VP pick might energize the Left at a time where their excitement level is at all time lows.. Better to keep the Left in the dumps, so to speak..

    That's my story and I'm sticking to it... :D

    Michale.....

  11. [11] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Michale,

    You're probably right ... :)

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    You're probably right ... :)

    Now, hold on! There's no need to be.....

    Wait??

    Whaaa you say??? :D

    Michale....

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