ChrisWeigant.com

Final Election Picks Wrapup

[ Posted Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 – 16:44 UTC ]

In honor of Sarah Palin, I ate two bowls of sugar cereal for breakfast, and am currently blogging in my pajamas. I am in my own house, and not in my parents' basement, but I can't do anything about that, sorry Sarah (actual quotes at end, in case you missed the fracas).

Oh, and by the way, Sarah -- how can we miss you if you won't leave?

[Ahem. Let me start over....]

OK, I know it's been a week and we've got to move on. The election is over, the dust has settled, and I really should be writing about something else rather than indulging in navel-gazing. But I can't help myself. I have to write one more article about the election, and in particular my picks. I apologize in advance. If you don't like watching someone else pat themselves on the back, then just skip today's article altogether and go out and decorate a veteran's grave. You have been warned.

I'm not even talking about my picks last week. I did fairly well with them, although it turns out I was a wee bit optimistic. Well, OK, since I brought it up, here's my record (so far) from last week:

I called 269 Democratic seats in the House, which was likely about 10 seats too high (still waiting on six races for the final numbers).

In the Senate, I called for a pickup of six seats, and again, the jury's still out. If Stevens loses in Alaska, if Franken wins in Minnesota, and if Chambliss wins his runoff, then I'll have nailed it. But all three of these races are pretty much up in the air right now, so I can't claim any better than calling 97 seats right at the moment.

For president, I missed the one electoral vote that Obama picked up in Nebraska, but few people called that one so I don't feel too bad about it. I got too irrationally exuberant and picked Georgia for Obama... maybe next time. And it's looking more and more like I called Missouri wrong, as it seems to have gone for McCain at this point.

Everything else I called right, although I did get the order wrong -- I predicted that we would know Obama had won when Virginia got called for him, but what actually happened was that Ohio really put the White House out of reach for John McCain, when it was called early for Obama.

Not too shabby, I have to admit.

But that's not what I meant to write about here. I had actually forgotten this until a few days ago, but a while back I wrote a half-serious (only half, mind you) article calling the Senate races in the 2008 election -- on the day after the 2006 election.

This article began with the words: "At the risk of appearing slightly delusional, allow me to predict the 2008 election." I refused to call the presidential race, and instead concentrated on the Senate. Most of my guesses were based on actuarial figuring (how old everyone was going to be), and their past performance in previous elections. My final pick: 55 Democrats (plus 2 Independents) to 43 Republicans. I have to say, that's pretty close from the distance of two years out.

You can read the article if you want a laugh as to some seriously bad calls I made, but overall it was closer than I ever would have thought. Here were my mistakes:

I called Minnesota for Franken, which is still not yet known. For some reason, I predicted a Democratic pickup in Tennessee, which obviously didn't happen. I called Georgia for the Republicans, which is not yet known. I called Alaska for the Republicans, also not known yet. I called North Carolina for Dole, and she lost to a Democrat instead. I predicted Republicans would steal South Dakota away from the Democrats, which didn't happen.

So, three definite mistakes and three possible mistakes. Some of these mistakes cancelled each other out, and I've still got a chance to hit the right political divide number, although I would be happier with a 59/41 split or a 58/42 split, obviously.

But still, for a two-year prognostication, I have to say that's not too bad.

 

[Footnote: I could not find one blog or article which provided full Sarah Palin quotes from her Fox News interview, so I am reproducing them here, unedited:

Well, unfortunately, early on, there are a tremendous number of examples that we can give regarding my record and things that could have, should have been so easily corrected if -- if the media would have taken one step further and -- and investigated a little bit, not just gone on some blogger probably sitting there in their parents' basement, wearing their pajamas, blogging some kind of gossip or -- or a lie regarding, for instance, the -- the discussion about who was Trig's real mom? You know, Was it one of her daughters or was she faking her pregnancy?

. . .

Certainly, there was a tremendous amount of curiosity there, and some chose to satisfy their curiosity based on facts and someone's record, and others chose to satisfy their curiosity based on those -- I'm going to characterize them as those bloggers in their parents' basement just talking garbage.]

 

[Special Note: If you don't know what "the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month" truly means, look up "Armistice Day" and find out why today is important.]

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

4 Comments on “Final Election Picks Wrapup”

  1. [1] 
    Michale wrote:

    Sorry...

    As soon as you said you were posting in your pajamas, I had to bail!!! :D

    Michale.....

  2. [2] 
    fstanley wrote:

    Well done on some good prognosticating!

    With regards to Sarah Palin, she needs to start governerning her state and keep an eye on senate race. It appears that there might be something fishy going on with the vote counting...

    ...Stan

  3. [3] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    To all -

    I promise to hold myself to one of these ego-feeding columns per year, promise.

    And I'll never mention what I wear when blogging again, so don't worry, Michale.

    Heh.

    I am now caught up on answering comments, so if you wrote something in the past week that didn't get a response, go back and check it again...

    -CW

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    @CW


    And I'll never mention what I wear when blogging again, so don't worry, Michale.

    Fair enough.. And I promise not to mention that I usually post buck-assed nekkid..

    K?? :D

    Michale.....

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