There's a crass and cynical formula for any given political candidate to follow, when any political issue is being discussed. It goes something like this (yes, I made up all this terminology, so please bear with me):

For any political issue P:

If V(a) < V(p), then: P.

If V(a) > V(p), then: –P.

If V(a) = ??, or V(p) = ??, or V(a) ?? V(p), then: avoid P.

First, let's define the terms. "V(a)" is the number of voters (or votes) that are against any particular issue or political stance "P." They're the "antis." This is weighed against "V(p)," the number of voters that are for (or "pro") issue P. So, in English, here is the same formula:

If the number of voters against political position P is less than the number of voters for it, then the candidate should come out for P. If the situation is reversed and there are more voters against P than for P, then the candidate should come out against P. If either the number of voters for or against cannot be accurately determined, or if it's not easy to see which group is larger, then the candidate should just avoid talking about P altogether, in the hopes that it will go away.

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Are American voters now being given the option of choosing a virtual third term for George W. Bush? Astonishingly enough, that seems to be the direction his brother's campaign has chosen to head towards. I use the word "astonishingly," since conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that this is a dandy way to commit political suicide. But because Jeb Bush is standing so resolutely with the last Bush administration's policies, he now risks his entire campaign turning into a referendum on whether America is truly ready for a third Dubya term.

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I certainly never thought I'd have this opportunity, but today's title is a quote from one of the funniest episodes of one of the funniest television shows of all time: the Fawlty Towers episode "The Germans." If you haven't ever seen it, you should. The show features John Cleese of Monty Python fame, and while it only lasted one season is still absolutely hilarious. Cleese, as Basil Fawlty, owns a hotel he runs with his wife. During the episode, he repeatedly gets knocked on the head (even once fleeing the hospital instead of recovering from a particularly bad knock), and then in a daze manages to offend his German guests by "mentioning" World War II in practically everything that comes out of his mouth. The goose-stepping scene is one of Cleese's finest comedic performances, in fact.

The opportunity for me to run today's ironic "Don't Mention The War!" title for a political column was dished up by none other than Jeb Bush, due to a recent interview with Fox host Megyn Kelly. Here is the full exchange:

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There's a big political fight happening in Washington, but for once it does not break down easily along partisan lines. There are free-traders among both the Democrats and the Republicans, and opposition exists on both sides as well. But the main skirmish in this fight is currently happening between President Obama and some of his fellow Democrats. While both sides have valid points to make in this disagreement, I find that both sides are also being a bit disingenuous in their rhetoric and their tactics.

First, the facts. Here's where we are, at the moment. The Obama administration has been hammering out a Pacific Rim trade agreement with many countries in order to open borders and reduce costs to trade around the Pacific Ocean. They have not released a draft of the agreement they have so far negotiated. Drafts have reportedly been available to hundreds of corporate executives in the United States, however, for them to make comments and suggestions. Drafts are provided to Congress, but the text remains "classified," meaning that Congress is not exactly free to comment upon it to the public (lest they be accused of leaking classified information).

Congress will get a chance to vote on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or "T.P.P.") agreement, and the text will become declassified before they do. The public will indeed get a chance to see what's in it before Congress votes on it. But this week Congress is voting on a related bill, which gives the president "fast-track authority" on trade agreements. This is essentially Congress tying its own hands, and giving up some of its legislative power to the executive branch. Fast-track authority is not a new thing -- other presidents have been granted this power by Congresses reaching back to the 1970s -- but the earlier laws have lapsed, meaning Obama does not currently have this power. Fast-track means Congress only gets an up-or-down vote on any trade agreement proposed by the president; they cannot amend it or otherwise change the text of the agreement in any way. They can only accept it or reject it, as is.

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When it comes to the 2016 field of Republican presidential candidates, the rule of thumb this time around is obviously going to be "the more, the merrier!" The number of officially-announced Republican candidates actually doubled this week (from three to six), as Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Mike Huckabee all tossed their hats into the ring.

Perhaps we should hold a contest to see who can guess closest to the total number of official Republican presidential candidates there will be on the 2016 primary ballot? Hmmm... I'd have to go pretty big on that, and guess somewhere in the range of 14-to-16, personally. Whatever the final number, the first debates will doubtless be pretty crowded (hope they can find enough podiums!).

Of course, there was a hilarious reaction to Fiorina's announcement online, since she had apparently forgotten to buy up all the internet domains containing her own name. So head on over to carlyfiorina.org to see how many people she laid off during her term as the head of Hewlett-Packard! So much for being some sort of tech genius, eh?

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I write today not to defend Pamela Geller, or to defend anything she has ever said or done. Much of what she says and does I consider rather indefensible, in fact. Instead, I write today in defense of Pamela Geller's absolute right to freely say and do what she wants. I write in defense of her rights, but that in no way means I would even attempt to defend her words or ideas, which I find odious in the extreme.

But I am actually amazed at the level of hypocrisy there is out there in reaction to the terrorist attack on Pamela Geller's event, a contest to select the best cartoon portrayal of Mohammed. Because the event itself is so offensive and provocative (in the strongest sense of that word), few who were gladly proclaiming "Je suis Charlie Hebdo!" not so long ago are now speaking up for Pamela Geller's right to do exactly the same thing. That's a shame, in my opinion, because to be on the side of freedom of speech and the First Amendment means occasionally defending odious people, ideas, or events. It comes with the territory, but there are many who are too squeamish to be ideologically consistent on the issue.

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While watching the television interview with Bill Clinton the other night, I began thinking about the practical problems of how to treat him if his wife becomes president. I have to admit, Bill did drop one offhand line about his future -- something about what he'd do if he were "called to public service again" -- which sounded rather suspiciously (to my ear, at any rate) like: "Perhaps Hillary will put me in her cabinet, who knows?" I have to admit a snatch of the song "How Do You Solve A Problem Like Maria?" from The Sound Of Music also flitted through my head. But then, Bill Clinton is known to have strange effects on your outlook, at times.

Kidding aside, it did start me seriously thinking not only about what Bill's role might be in a Hillary Clinton administration, but also about the unprecedented nature of the problem. We've never faced this problem as a nation, and not just on one single level, either. Like all things Clinton, it's complicated. The line that became the soundbite from the interview, after all, was Bill talking about continuing to give high-priced speeches if Hillary wins, and his "gotta pay our bills" attempt at making light of the situation. As I said, multiple levels of this situation to consider, all of them unprecedented.

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Obama regains ground

After a somewhat disappointing March in public opinion polling, President Obama has regained ground in April. His monthly average job approval was up, and his job disapproval numbers went down even more. All around, it was a pretty good month, but to put it in perspective he's really just roughly gotten back to where his numbers were in February. Let's take a quick look at the new chart.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

April, 2015

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Last week, the field of officially-announced Democratic presidential candidates doubled in size, from one person to two. This week, the Republican presidential field is likewise going to double, from three candidates to six. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio have all previously officially announced their candidacies, and this week they will be joined by Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson (who announced today), and Mike Huckabee (scheduled to announce tomorrow).

I like to examine every official candidate as he or she enters the race, so today let's take a look at all three of the new Republican entrants, in the order of the likely chance they'll have to become a major contender in what is expected to be an incredibly crowded field.

Carly Fiorina

I strive to take every official presidential candidate with all the seriousness that the highest office in the land should demand, but it's tough to call Carly Fiorina anything more than a "vanity candidate." I define that term as "a candidate with a bunch of money and no realistic chance of winning, who wants to see his or her name in the news for a few months and doesn't care how much it costs to achieve this." Herman Cain and (if he ever actually ran) Donald Trump would be other examples of this phenomenon.

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We've got everything from hippies to Satanists to cover this week, so let's just dive right in, shall we?

The Supreme Court heard a monumental case on marriage equality, which could indeed be their last case ever on the subject (if Justice Kennedy votes the way many expect him to, resulting in gay marriage in all 50 states). Feelings, as always, ran high on both sides of the issue, but more and more it's looking like a lost cause for all the "defenders of traditional marriage."

Interestingly enough, the best quote I read this week was from a Republican from Illinois, Senator Mark Kirk. For some context, Kirk faces a tough re-election race in a blue state, but even so, the sentiment is a brilliant one. Speaking to the crowd in front of the Supreme Court building, Kirk said: "As a history nerd, you could make the case that we could've lost World War II but for one British gay mathematician named Alan Turing. And we are a much more powerful country because of our gay community." Well said, Senator! We still hope Illinois replaces you with a Democrat, but credit is due where credit is due. Kirk is now the second Republican senator to come out in support of marriage equality (Rob Portman was the first). Even the Republicans running for president are reportedly beginning to realize what a tightrope the issue is going to become for them in June, when the court rules.

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