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OK, I'm going to start today by apologizing both for this article and for that title. The article's apology is for its frivolous nature, and the title's apology will become obvious in due course. I do realize there are momentous things happening in the political world that I really should be writing about today, but I am instead choosing to ignore it all until tomorrow because I saw this little blurb of news:
President Donald Trump now faces multiple foreign policy situations which could easily become full-blown crises in a very short time. So far, his response has been rather underwhelming, and even that's being charitable. Some might describe it as downright incoherent, in fact. While this isn't too surprising for those who have been paying attention, this time the result could be a lot more significant than a piece of legislation dying in the House because Republicans can't agree among themselves.
Trump, of course, has never been a slave to consistency when it comes to foreign policy (or domestic policy, for that matter). When Barack Obama was president, it was easy enough to be against whatever Obama was for in true knee-jerk fashion. Hey, it worked for most Republicans, so it wasn't like Trump came up with the idea himself or anything. Trump flourished among his base by denouncing anything Obama did and making sweeping promises of what he'd do, with precisely nothing to back them up. He supposedly had a secret plan for dealing with the Islamic State. He was going to bomb them into submission, no matter the collateral damage. He might just go in and take all the Iraqi oil, as spoils of war. He was going to keep the Russians out of the Crimea (!). He was going to scrap the "worst deal ever" with Iran. Russians wouldn't dare provoke American warships, and neither would Iranian naval boats. North Korea wouldn't dare move their nuclear program forward. China would change their trade policy towards the United States, and would furthermore keep North Korea in check, just because Trump told them to do so. By sheer force of personality, Trump was going to stare down the world's leaders and make them blink, because he would threaten to unleash the awesomeness of American military upon any country who dared defy him.
Last Monday, I wrote about how bad Donald Trump's poll numbers have been, pointing out that he got absolutely no honeymoon from the public. I never thought I'd be writing about Trump's poll numbers again so quickly, but then everything about the Trump presidency seems to operate at warp speed, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised. Today, Donald Trump hit a milestone in job approval polling -- he is now at the lowest point Barack Obama ever had, in eight full years. Trump's average daily job approval at RealClearPolitics.com is now a dismal 39.8 percent. His disapproval rating stands at 53.3 percent. And he's not even through his first 100 days.
Donald Trump's poll numbers are now worse than Obama saw during his entire first term, in fact. Trump has set new lows in less than three months, to put this another way. Obama's lowest daily approval average during his first term came on October 9, 2011, when he hit 42.0 percent. Obama's highest disapproval rate came a few weeks earlier, on August 30, when 53.2 percent of the public disapproved of the job he was doing. That was over two and a half years into his first term. Trump has topped both numbers, on only his 75th day in office. Trump's approval rate is now 2.2 points lower than Obama saw in his first four years, and his disapproval rate is 0.1 percent above what Obama saw in his first term. That's pretty stunning.
This could be a historic week for the Senate, as it now seems likely that the Republicans will change the chamber's rules to remove the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. This is known, in Washingtonese, as "going nuclear" or "dropping the nuke." That's a pretty powerful metaphor, which was intended to show the far-reaching consequences of making such a move. But as we begin this epic debate, it would behoove everyone inside the Beltway (especially those working in the media) to review a quick rundown of how, exactly, we got to this point. Because this won't be the first Senate filibuster nuke, and it may not be the last one -- at this point, who knows if the legislative filibuster will survive for much longer?
The first nuclear option happened four years ago. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid dropped the nuke on filibustering all executive branch appointments and all judicial appointments up to (but not including) the Supreme Court. This week's nuke will be the removal of the last remaining executive branch appointee filibuster, on the confirmation of Supreme Court justices.
None of this happened in a vacuum, of course. Neil Gorsuch would likely have been confirmed rather easily if these were normal times, absent the history of how Merrick Garland was treated. But that history exists, of course, which is why over 40 Democrats are going to do everything possible to stop Gorsuch's confirmation.
Will tomorrow be any different at the White House? Since we all seem to now be living in Bizarro World, wouldn't that tend to make you think that we'd get no foolishness from our president on April Fool's Day? I mean, in an April Fool's Year, shouldn't one day be set aside for nonfoolery? Maybe even that's too much to ask from this fool's paradise of a White House.
Program Note: If truth be told, I was planning on taking today off from writing. I had a pretty full day lined up, with errands and car repairs and other real-world chores that needed doing. So I was just going to run a repeat column today, with my apologies. Instead, I'm presenting the full text of a press release by Senator Ron Wyden and Congressman Earl Blumenauer, who both hail from Oregon.
Regular readers are already aware of my own opinion on the matter, which is that federal law is in desperate need of revision, given the increasing amount of marijuana legalization which is taking place on the state level. Marijuana is not heroin nor crystal meth nor crack cocaine, and it needs to stop being treated as their equivalent by the federal government. Federal laws need a complete overhaul on marijuana, and this legislative package is the farthest and most comprehensive effort I've yet seen towards achieving that goal.
Nothing in these bills precludes states which have not changed their marijuana laws from treating it exactly the same as they do now. Nothing in it forces any one state to take any action whatsoever. Instead, it merely gives them the option of treating marijuana differently than federal law now does. Which, as the press release points out, many states already do. It merely formalizes de jure what is already de facto happening. That's it. It's a necessary change, and the three bills which make up this package seem to be very comprehensive in changing all aspects of federal law which so desperately need updating.
So, today, I'm not even "just being a stenographer." I'm instead just cutting and pasting the entire text of the announcement from Wyden and Blumenauer for you to read.
-- Chris Weigant
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE PATH TO MARIJUANA REFORM INTRODUCED BY SENATOR RON WYDEN AND CONGRESSMAN EARL BLUMENAUER
The Path to Marijuana Reform, introduced today by Senator Wyden and Congressman Blumenauer is a package of three bills that pave the way for responsible federal regulation of the legal marijuana industry, and provide certainty for state-legal marijuana businesses which operate in nearly every state in the U.S.
A second nuke is about to be dropped in the Senate. Metaphorically, of course. Democrats are about to mount a filibuster against Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee, and in response Republicans are about to do completely away with the ability of the Senate to filibuster Supreme Court nominees. That all seems certain, at this point. But it does raise a larger question: is the practice of filibustering legislation also in danger of extinction?
Most people don't fully understand the filibuster, which isn't all that surprising seeing as how it's an arcane segment of a larger (and much more arcane) set of rules, which dictate how the Senate does its business. The filibuster is a parliamentary procedure, and all such procedures are agreed upon by the Senate as their first order of business after a new Congress is seated. None of this is set in stone, no matter how long or storied a history it may have in the chamber. The filibuster is not in the Constitution. It is merely a tactic the Senate has gotten used to using, which means it can be changed at any time.
There's a meme running around inside the Beltway this week concerning the likelihood of Democrats in Congress working with Donald Trump to get some legislation passed. However, much of the gossiping ignores one key question, because so far the speculation has mostly been focused on: "Will they or won't they work together, and what will it mean politically for both?" That's a valid thing to ponder, but the essential part most of this speculation misses is that any collaboration between the two is going to heavily depend on the substance of the issue, and precisely what's being proposed. Substance matters, in other words, even if it is more fun to wonder what the political fallout may be.
Donald Trump started this speculation in his response to the utter failure of Ryancare to even pass the House of Representatives. More interestingly, though, were hints that some of the moderate Republicans in the House may also be considering working with Democrats on legislation, in order to marginalize the Tea Partiers in the Freedom Caucus, who only seem to be able to say "No." Taken together, does this mean a thaw in relations between the two parties? Well, that's overstating the case for now, but the reason it's so tantalizing is that even rumors of possibly working together haven't been heard in D.C. in quite some time.
A little more than two months in, Donald Trump's presidency is already unique in a number of ways. One of these that has so far gotten little attention (since there's so much else going on) is Trump's complete lack of a honeymoon period with the public. Trump's job approval polling started out pretty bad and it's only gotten worse. The first few months of a presidency isn't always indicative of how successful any president will wind up, of course, but Trump is truly in a category of his own in the polls so far -- and not in a good way.
On the Real Clear Politics rolling daily average page, Trump started out his term just barely above water, with a job approval average of 44.3 percent and job disapproval at 44.2 percent. But that has so far been the only day this has been true -- from that point on, Trump's disapproval has been above his approval rating. His job approval briefly hit 46.0 percent, but it's been falling steadily since then. Trump is currently almost 10 points below water -- his job approval today hit a new low of 42.1 percent, while his disapproval hit a new high of 52.0 percent.
Historically, this is pretty stunning. Presidents usually get a honeymoon period where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt. Disappointment usually sets in eventually, but it normally takes a while to get there. Trump, though, missed out on his honeymoon altogether.
Never were the words of the Grateful Dead so fitting in the world of politics. "Trouble ahead, trouble behind" is indeed a perfect description of the spot Paul Ryan and Donald Trump found themselves in today. Because Casey Jones faced precisely the same no-win situation, and it didn't work out so good for him, either.
Switchman sleepin'
Train hundred-and-two
Is on the wrong track and
Headed for you
So you'll have to forgive the rather disjointed (and derailed) nature of today's column, since it was written in snatches, in between watching Ryancare explode into a million pieces throughout the day.
Because it's been such an extraordinary day, we're not even going to attempt writing a normal Friday Talking Points column this week. Instead, we've just got an extended rant on the first big failure of the Donald Trump administration (and the Paul Ryan speakership, to boot).
The following was written in fits and starts, which is about as cohesive as was possible today. Because even though legislative death and destruction were in the air, when the collision happened it was almost impossible to tear our eyes away from it. Call us legislative rubberneckers if you will, but we'd bet a fair amount of readers also couldn't tear themselves away from the news today. So with a few final apt lines from the Dead, we'll just get started, shall we?
Come 'round the bend
You know it's the end
The fireman screams and
The engine just gleams
Casey Jones you better watch your speed
A trainwreck is a spectacular thing to see, isn't it?
