[ Posted Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 – 18:47 PDT ]
This column apparently shares a birthday with none other than Donald Duck, who turned 75 years old yesterday. Who knew? Yes, my column turned three years old yesterday, since my first foray into blogging happened on Huffington Post on June 9, 2006. Since I don't follow horoscopes, I have no idea what the metaphysical significance is of this column sharing the date with a duck who doesn't wear pants, so I will leave that for wiser minds to decide.
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[ Posted Wednesday, March 18th, 2009 – 16:28 PDT ]
It really is a bit early to focus on President Obama's approval ratings in the polls, I know. But, rather than looking at the overall picture of how he's doing, I have been noticing something interesting which I don't believe others have picked up on -- Obama's numbers dramatically improve depending on the sample used by the pollsters. When "likely voters" (LV) are polled, the numbers they give are different from when either "registered voters" (RV) or "all adults" (A) are polled. Obama's LV approval rating is about five points lower than the RV/A numbers. The difference is more pronounced in the disapproval ratings, where LV numbers are fully ten points higher than RV/A numbers.
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[ Posted Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 – 15:41 PST ]
But the most exciting news is that Al Franken will win a very tight race in Minnesota. Senator Al Franken will take over from Senator Hillary Clinton as the biggest annoyance to Republican peace of mind across the country. Just the fact that Franken will now be in the United States Senate is going to drive some right-wingers clear around the bend (that's my prediction, anyway).
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[ Posted Monday, November 3rd, 2008 – 17:21 PST ]
But it has to be said -- Barack Obama is where he is today because he is smarter than us. Now, by "us" I am not referring to you, dear reader (perish the thought!), but rather the collective "us" out here blogging in the progressive trenches on the left. We (and I certainly include myself in this) have been second-guessing Obama's political tactics and strategy for over a year now. Obama has had us tearing our hair out at times with frustration, and each time he wound up proving us wrong.
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[ Posted Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 – 15:58 PDT ]
If you detect a certain giddiness here at Electoral Math Central, it is due to the fact that the election is actually drawing nigh, after a seemingly eternal campaign season. It's been a long, long road to where we find ourselves, and we're all feeling the strain. But fear not! Election Day is just around the corner, and just about everything seems to be breaking Obama's way.
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[ Posted Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008 – 16:02 PDT ]
Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.
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[ Posted Wednesday, October 15th, 2008 – 16:09 PDT ]
This week's word is going to be "insurmountable." Look for it coming from the lips and pens of pundits everywhere in the next week. Because while mainstream media journalists are obviously trying to portray this race as a lot closer than it really is (better ratings that way), if Obama can just hold on to the leads he has right now -- not improve them in any way, just hold them -- then Election Day viewing parties nationwide may be over before anyone's even finished their first beer.
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[ Posted Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 – 15:59 PDT ]
I have to admit, that's a pretty provocative title. And enumerating the poultry before they emerge from the ova is always risky... as the saying goes. But it's hard to look at this week's polls without the word "landslide" appearing in your forebrain.
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[ Posted Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 – 15:31 PDT ]
It's time once again for our weekly look at the state polls in the electoral race between John McCain and Barack Obama. Now, a lot has happened since last week's column, including the first debate, the "suspension" of McCain's campaign, Wall Street continuing to crash and burn, and Sarah Palin finally sitting down with Katie Couric (Katie must be beside herself with joy by this point, because she seems to be the only reporter Palin will now talk to). Palin interviews have headlined on CBS' evening news show for four weeknights in a row now. And that's not even mentioning the parody on Saturday Night Live ("I'd like to use my lifeline!").
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[ Posted Wednesday, September 24th, 2008 – 16:11 PDT ]
Since last week's dismal outlook for Obama, there has been an absolute flood of state poll numbers released. One day after last week's column ran, over thirty states released polls on the same day. Whew! They even polled the District of Columbia, for the first time in the entire election season (you can see why they hadn't bothered up until now -- it unsurprisingly came out 82/13 in Obama's favor). But so many state polls are being released so fast, that for the first time every single state has been polled recently -- and not just in the past month, but in the past week. This flood of data is a good thing, though, as it keeps the electoral map a lot closer to the current voter preferences state-by-state.
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