The invasion has now officially begun. Vladimir Putin wasn't bluffing. President Joe Biden's warnings that this was going to happen were not overblown or premature. Russia is redrawing the geopolitical lines in Eastern Europe and the rest of the world is going to have to adjust to the new reality. This is all very grim to contemplate, obviously. We are going back in time to the 20th century, when wars of aggression were a reality that killed untold millions. So it behooves us to look ahead to what this new order will mean, especially what it will mean militarily.

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How much does America care what happens in Ukraine? That is the question that is at the heart of how this crisis is going to play out politically, here at home. So far, there's no real clear answer. It's hard to ascertain, mostly because events on the ground are changing so swiftly. Americans are still forming their opinions rather than having long-held ideological positions to fall back on. Ukraine has never been a close ally of America historically, unlike other European countries such as Britain and France. We don't really have a close relationship that stretches back centuries, in other words. This is the biggest reason why the American public's opinion is so malleable right now. To put it another way, if Russia had tried to invade and annex parts of Scotland and England, we'd immediately know how we felt about it -- there wouldn't be any question at all.

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Since it's fun to do, and since today's a good day for it, let's take a look at one particular moment in American history. A Republican president sits in the White House. His very presence terrifies liberals, who consider him an intellectual lightweight (and even that's being polite) and not up to the job in any way. He cares more for his television presence than actual policy matters, it seems. Both the president and his wife seem elitist to the core and disdainful of reining in their excesses after moving to the White House. He is seen as a total puppet, and the only question members of the media have to explore is who the puppetmaster pulling his strings currently is. He packed his White House with his buddies, and they spend a lot of time fighting with Washington insiders. The rest of the world is horrified that we elected such a man president. There are even rumors that his campaign cut a deal with a tyrannical foreign government in order to help him get elected. In fact, there are very real fears he could start a nuclear war at any time, since his foreign policy is both erratic and belligerent. About the only thing he can get done in Congress is to pass a massive tax cut. That's what the prevailing opinion was at the time, inside the Beltway. His name? Ronald Reagan.

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The world pauses and holds its collective breath as we all wonder the same thing: What is Vladimir Putin up to? Will he invade Ukraine? Is this all some sort of bluff or feint? Or is he deadly serious about reconstituting the Soviet Union's sphere of influence (of satellite states subservient to Moscow)? Is he just waiting for the Olympics to end as some sort of favor to China? Or will the troops eventually go home and the whole crisis blows over?

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The Republican Party, these days, is the Party of Donald Trump. The question the 2022 elections might answer is precisely how Trumpy the party is going to get, for at least the next two years. A corollary question is how big Trump's influence truly is with both Republican voters and Republican donors. Many are fervently hoping Trump's influence will fade to at least some degree if a few of his anointed candidates lose spectacularly, but no matter how many wind up losing, the near-certainty is that Donald Trump is going to make another presidential run in 2024 -- meaning the 2022 results may not actually matter all that much. An election with no Trump on the ballot is one thing, but if he's at the top of the ballot the next time around then all bets will -- once again -- be off.

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The Canadian trucker protest seems to be winding down, at least somewhat. The vital bridge between Detroit and Windsor has been cleared and reopened. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced a national public emergency, which will allow him to clear the protests in Ottawa as well. But the big remaining question further south is whether American truckers will stage their own protest or not. The right-wing media echo chamber is rooting for such a protest to take place, but so far nothing tangible has emerged from the effort. Perhaps this is because there just isn't any great reason for them to protest here in the first place?

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Did what happened at the United States Capitol on January 6th, 2021 constitute "legitimate political discourse" or not? That was the question that has divided the Republican Party all week, and may serve to be the one memorable phrase that sums up the difference between those in the GOP who have completely surrendered all their morals and thought processes and attachment to reality to Donald Trump -- and those who have not. Because that's what it all boils down to, really.

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Inflation is rapidly turning into President Joe Biden's Achilles' heel. In the midst of an economy that is by every other measure booming, inflation remains the unsolved problem that affects all Americans at the grocery store, at the gas pump, and at the used car lot. Unlike more esoteric economic indicators, people see inflation's effects very directly, as they pay more for basic supplies every week. This represents an enormous political problem not just for Democrats but for Joe Biden personally.

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President Joe Biden missed an opportunity to make good on a campaign promise this week. It's not the most significant thing happening in the White House right now, I will admit, but it was a missed opportunity nonetheless. Biden could have stood strongly (as he had pledged to do) for the rights of people working for him not to be bullied while doing their jobs. Instead, he wound up looking detached and weak. Perhaps this was the fault of overzealous aides who did their best to not allow a controversy to actually enter the Oval Office, but there's also a danger in protecting the president too much from having to make hard choices.

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Today Politico caused somewhat of a stir, by publishing an article that examined the question of the chances Democrats will have to avoid getting wiped out in the midterm elections this November. Up until now, the conventional inside-the-Beltway cocktail-party-chattering-class wisdom was that Democrats were toast and might as well not even bother running much of a campaign at all. Historical trends were against them, gerrymandering was going to take the House of Representatives away from them, and Republicans were going to emerge with new congressional majorities pretty much no matter what Democrats did or said in the meantime.

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