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But I'm certainly not looking this gift horse in the mouth. For weeks now, I have been practically begging someone -- ANYone -- to ask John McCain this exact question: "How many houses do you and your wife own?" Politico finally asked. John McCain blew the answer. Yet another gaffe from McCain, but the difference this time is that the media chose to run with it.
One can almost picture the scene -- a high-level campaign strategy session inside Barack Obama's headquarters. "So everyone's saying Obama should fight back against McCain's smears... how should we go about doing that?" "Hey, what about... I don't know... maybe highlighting the really stupid things McCain says on the campaign trail -- almost on a daily basis?!?"
Many people have been saying for the past few weeks (myself included) that Barack Obama needs to stand up for himself a little bit more, and strongly counter the negative attacks coming from John McCain. I have also suggested (and I'm not alone in this one either) that Obama needs to start actually taking the fight to McCain, by painting a picture of McCain for America to see -- to counteract who the McCain campaign would like you to believe John McCain is.
Thanks to all for playing, and feel free to add more, as it's quite likely some of these winners will be found to have used humor-enhancing substances. Ahem.
It's time once again to take a look at the Electoral College math from state-level polling. Nationwide polls are not completely meaningless, but they are pretty irrelevant -- because that's not how we elect a president. You have to win enough states to get more than half the electoral votes in the Electoral College. While many would like to change this system, it's what we've got for the 2008 election, and so looking at the state-level polling is much more important to figure out where the race is right now, and what the trends are.
Senator Barack Obama is currently facing a test in the presidential race. He's already successfully passed the Serious Test (talking to foreign leaders, appearing presidential), as well as the Oratory Test (he does know how to give a speech, that's for sure). But the next test voters are closely watching could be called the Feisty Test. Does Obama have what it takes to put some passion into parrying John McCain's Low Road Express? We will have the answer to that in the next few weeks.
I have to say, I am slowly seeing signs of the media turning on John McCain. Now, so far, it's a fairly subtle thing -- they haven't started asking him any really tough questions on his policy, his history, or his record, for instance. But they have noticed the change in tone since the Karl Rove people have taken over McCain's campaign strategy. And it's turning them off. They are like Rip Van Winkle waking up from a years-long nap, blinking sleepily and confusedly while wondering "Who is this new John McCain? Where's the straight talker I went to sleep dreaming about?"
Barack Obama made a campaign promise to visit the state of Alaska before the election. And what better time than right now to follow through on this promise? Obama should fly to Alaska the first chance his campaign schedule allows and make a speech at a rally with Mark Begich (and any other Democratic candidates for Alaskan office who care to join in). Begich is currently the Mayor of Anchorage, and is running to unseat the Republican Senator Ted Stevens. You may have heard Ted Stevens' name in the news recently. Which is why the time is now for Obama to make the trip.
So, to be fair, I am running a "halfway mark" check on my 2008 predictions. I wrote this column in mid-December last year. My record is not that good, I have to admit. Although the one about Iraq and the elections has so far turned out uncannily accurate, I have to say. But many of these I just got flat-out wrong. I predicted an extended primary campaign... for the wrong party. I predicted all kinds of wild things which just didn't happen. But, for your amusement, I am running the column in full, complete with my own personal self-grading. (You may want to read the column first, and then come back to this list to see how I marked it.)
So here is how the 2008 election looked, to me, a year and a half ago. I concentrated mostly on the Senate, and if I were dividing up the races today, obviously I would switch some of these states from one category to another. But I think my final prediction of 57 Democrats (55 Democrats plus two independents who vote with them) to 43 Republicans is still among the most likely outcomes this year. I could be off by one or two, but I bet not much more than that.