The political term for physically-challenged waterfowl has been appearing with increasing regularity in the media this week, to describe the president. But is Donald Trump really a "lame duck" yet? Or is he more of a duck that happened to sprain an ankle or perhaps stub a toe (do ducks technically have ankles... or toes? I must admit, I have no idea...)?

Etymological/metaphorical/biological amusements aside, though, the question is a bigger one than pinning down the exact nature of this particular waterfowl's infirmity. Because the articles using the term are really asking whether Trump's iron-fisted grip on the Republican Party (and/or his MAGA supporters) is slipping -- and if so, by how much. Here's just one example of the question being discussed:

Donald Trump, in his second term, appears to be suffering a case of early-onset Lame Duck syndrome.

His stunning about-face this week on releasing information related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein -- after it became clear House Republicans would vote against his wishes -- is only the latest sign his iron grip on the Republican Party is beginning to slip.

This isn't the only place the term has been popping up. Articles are appearing with headlines such as: "7 Signs Trump Is Losing His Groove," and: "The MAGA Crackup Might Finally Be Here," and: "Is President Trump's Power Over The Republican Party Waning?" Here's one more example (which notes in the second paragraph: "as the first signs of his lame duck status emerge"), which adds an important caveat:

[Donald] Trump's previously ironclad grip on the Republican Congress might even be weakening earlier than usual, before the more typical loss of power by a sitting president following midterm elections. Republicans are reacting in real time to the drubbing their party took in off-year elections earlier this month, defeats that were much worse than anticipated.

Polling also shows Mr. Trump and his party in a weakened state on a number of fronts headed into a 2026 election cycle that will determine control of Congress, with Americans citing rising costs and a dour view of the economy that Mr. Trump had pledged to fix to their benefit.

The president continues to hold an outsized grip on his party given his massive popularity with his far-right base, and observers are quick to caution that his political strength has survived through many episodes when it had appeared to be waning.

That last bit is important, as Trump (much more than any other politician the label has been applied to) has metaphorically been coated with Teflon ever since he entered politics. Nothing has diminished his hold over the party, to date. So all these diagnoses of lameness might be premature, for this particular duck.

Even so, it's been a rather jaw-dropping week for Trump. He lost a vote in Congress that he had been dead-set against -- by a combined total of 527 votes to one. Well, admittedly that doesn't tell the full story, since at the very last minute Trump flip-flopped by announcing he was now for the measure that he had been fighting tooth and nail against all year long. Just last week he was still trying to strong-arm the Republicans who were supporting the resolution (to release the Epstein files) and bully them into switching their position. This failed, so Trump had to pretend he was switching his position. If he hadn't, he would have been seen as a huge loser, but this way he can claim to be on the winning side of the vote.

Which is patently ridiculous, for anyone who didn't just emerge from a years-long coma this week. The bill Congress voted on will force Trump to do something he didn't want to do, period. He lost this vote, plain and simple. Trump could have released the Epstein files at any time, without Congress having to get involved at all. He didn't. He fought the effort to force him to, and lost. Then he had to pretend to be celebrating the bill's passage somehow, even though it was a bill forcing him to do something he didn't want to do. How does that make any sense?

But getting back to the lame-duckery in the media, the Epstein vote (527-1!) wasn't the only indication that Trump is losing his grip. During the shutdown fight, Trump leaned heavily on Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster and just ignore the Democrats -- and the GOP senators refused to do so. Trump has been leaning on red states to redistrict, to improve the GOP's chances of hanging onto control in the House in next year's midterms, but three state Republican legislatures defied him and refused to do so (Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska). Trump said he would "welcome" foreign workers in an interview this week, which seriously annoyed his own MAGA base. Some Republicans have been raising questions about Trump using the U.S. military to blow up any boat he feels like, since declaring war is the purview of Congress. Other Republicans in Congress have not been impressed with Trump's idea of just sending out $2,000 checks to everyone in America, in the hopes that they won't notice the rising prices in the grocery store quite so much. And both the House and Senate seem to be moving forward to pass a bill that would slap Russia with heavy sanctions -- a bill that Trump has not expressly supported.

Plus, Trump's poll numbers are way down. One poll this week showed a huge advantage in the "generic ballot" (where pollsters ask people whether they'd support a Democrat or Republican in the next election, without specifying any names) for Democrats -- by a whopping 55-41 margin. To be fair, this poll is probably an outlier (other polls don't show the gap as being nearly as wide), but it should be a red flag for Republicans in Congress who are running for re-election next year.

Trump flip-flopped on one other big issue in the past week, as he sullenly announced that he was removing all tariffs (even on countries who hadn't struck a trade deal with America yet) on a long list of food products, some of which can't be grown here at home (like coffee). This didn't get as much media attention as the Epstein vote, but it's just as damaging for Trump's brand. Trump has insisted all along that tariffs aren't actually "taxes" and that American consumers simply would not see any increase in prices due to higher tariffs. So if that's true, then why did Trump just remove a bunch of tariffs? The only answer is that he is worried about the fact that anywhere from two-thirds to three-fourths of the public thinks his tariffs have made prices worse and inflation go up (both of which are true).

Trump is caught in a trap of his own making, here. Which is why it would be nice if the media pressed him on the inherent contradiction. To use another bird-based metaphor, Trump's answer to the looming problem of inflation, the economy, and affordability is to stick his head in the sand. As far as Trump is concerned, "affordability" is some sort of "Democrat hoax" that doesn't exist. According to him, prices on everything -- everything! -- are down. Way down! Prices were much higher when Joe Biden was running the country... and by the way, anything that is not perfect is still Biden's fault (even a full ten months in to Trump's second term).

Trump can't have it both ways, of course. If his delusions were true, then the voters wouldn't be so angry. If prices have risen, then tariffs are almost certainly a big reason -- meaning it is Trump's fault. Since, to Trump, nothing is ever his fault, he'll never admit any of this. But sticking your head in the sand by insisting that there simply is no problem is not exactly a smart position for the Republican Party to take right now. To put it mildly. As we've said before: "Just ask Joe Biden how that worked out for him."

We're starting to get economic numbers once again, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics ramps back up post-shutdown. The unemployment rate ticked up in September, to 4.4 percent -- the highest it has been in almost four years. They've now announced they're going to skip October's numbers and instead concentrate on this month, but the November numbers will be delayed until the second week of December. But it's not the jobs numbers which might be seriously bad news for Trump -- it's the inflation rate. The last reported official rate was 3.0 percent. If it continues to go upward (as many economists are predicting), it will be higher than at any time since Trump took office again. Trump has also been ignoring this figure, insisting that "there is no inflation" or that it's down to "incredibly low levels" (neither of which, obviously, is true). If the number keeps going up, Trump will have to address it somehow -- and chances are good that he'll do so by continuing to insist that there's no problem and that gas is somehow magically selling for two bucks a gallon everywhere (which also isn't true -- it's higher than that everywhere).

Republicans in Congress will be watching all this. At some point, their instincts for self-preservation are going to kick in, one would assume. Following Trump down the head-in-the-sand denial path seems almost guaranteed to produce a blowout blue-wave midterm election. So there's going to have to be some sort of break with Trump for any of them to attempt to tell their voters that they are actually trying to address the affordability crisis.

This could become apparent as soon as next month. The one thing the Senate Democrats who voted with the Republicans to end the shutdown got in exchange for crossing the aisle was a promise that the Senate would vote on a bill (of the Democrats' choosing) to extend the Obamacare subsidies that are going to turn into a pumpkin on New Year's day. Ever since then, Republicans have been scrambling around trying to come up with some sort of gimmick so they can tell their voters they voted for cheaper healthcare costs, without actually lowering healthcare costs for the people affected by the end of the subsidies. Trump himself weighed in on this, with (as usual) a half-baked idea. Trump is now insisting that any money has to be handed directly to the people, instead of going to an insurance company. This is laughably unworkable and won't do much of anything to lower anyone's costs, but Trump doesn't care. He drew this line in the sand, and some Republicans in Congress dutifully cobbled together some legislation that would do what Trump wants.

However, there are other Republicans who know full well that this isn't going to solve the problem at all. So discussions continue between Democrats and Republicans, with the latest proposal being an extension of the subsidies for two years (with a few GOP ideas tossed in to fight non-existent "massive fraud"). Other Republicans are holding firm that the subsidies should just expire, period.

If enough Republicans get on board with some sort of compromise worked out with the Democrats, then such a bill might actually pass before the year-end deadline. But Trump has already drawn a line in the sand, vowing to veto any bill that doesn't send all the money directly to the consumers. But would he really veto a bipartisan bill that would avoid premiums doubling or tripling for tens of millions of Americans? Remember: Trump is already politically weak on the whole affordability crisis issue, so this would be a monumentally stupid thing for him to do.

He might be forced to flip-flop, once again.

Which would be one further indication that he has now achieved impaired-waterfowl status. So the entire debate will be very interesting to watch, over the course of the next few weeks.

 

We have a six-way tie this week.

Two Democratic senators and four Democratic House members collaborated on a video this week that caused Donald Trump to go ballistic. The Democrats are (with their own descriptions of their previous military or intelligence experience), in the order they appear in the video:

Senator Elissa Slotkin ("Former C.I.A. officer"), Senator Mark Kelly ("Captain in the United States Navy"), Representative Chris Deluzio ("Former Navy"), Representative Maggie Goodlander ("Former intelligence officer"), Representative Chrissy Houlahan ("Former Air Force"), and Representative Jason Crow ("Former paratrooper and Army Ranger").

The video runs for ninety seconds. In it, these former members of the intelligence community and military issue a warning to those still serving. The warning consists of restating current United States military law, which reaffirms the world's decision in the Nuremburg trials that "I was just following orders" is not a valid excuse to commit crimes. If given an illegal order, soldiers must refuse those orders. Which is what the video reminds them of.

Here is the text of the video, after all the members of Congress have introduced themselves [Editorial Note: the punctuation was lightly edited, since at a few points the same line is repeated by multiple people and the captioning's punctuation seemed to get a little confusing at the end -- but none of the text has been edited at all]:

We want to speak directly to members of the military and intelligence community who take risks each day to keep Americans safe. We know you are under enormous stress and pressure right now. Americans trust their military. But that trust is at risk. This administration is pitting our uniformed military and intelligence community professionals against American citizens. Like us, you all swore an oath. To protect and defend this Constitution. Right now, the threats to our Constitution aren't just coming from abroad, but from right here at home. Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders. [You can refuse illegal orders.] You must refuse illegal orders. No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution. We know this is hard. And that it's a difficult time to be a public servant. But whether you're serving in the C.I.A., the Army, our Navy, the Air Force, your vigilance is critical. And know that we have your back. Because now, more than ever, the American people need you. We need you to stand up for our laws, our Constitution, and who we are as Americans. Don't give up [don't give up, don't give up, don't give up] the ship.

You'll note that Donald Trump is not named anywhere and that at no point do they tell servicemembers to refuse legal orders from anybody. All they are doing is restating what the Uniform Code of Military Justice says.

As mentioned, when he heard about this video, Trump absolutely lost it. He started sending out ominous messages online: "It's called SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. Each one of these traitors to our Country should be ARRESTED AND PUT ON TRIAL. Their words cannot be allowed to stand - We won't have a Country anymore!!! An example MUST BE SET." He followed this screed up with: "SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!" Trump also reposted one message that said: "HANG THEM GEORGE WASHINGTON WOULD !!"

This isn't the first time Trump has flipped out at Democrats reminding people of the law, or their rights under it. Earlier, Democrats had been reminding undocumented people of their rights under U.S. laws and the Constitution, which Trump also considered treasonous behavior.

We also have a Honorable Mention for Senator Chris Murphy as well, who posted his own video in response to Trump's dangerous words. In it, he says:

The president of the United States just called for members of Congress to be executed. If you are a person of influence in this country, maybe it's time to pick a fucking side. If you are a Republican in Congress, if you are a Republican governor, maybe it's time to draw a line in the sand and say that under no circumstances should the president of the United States be calling on his political opposition to be hanged. We are at a very dangerous moment right now. The president is engaged in the wholesale incitement, endorsement and rationalization of political violence in this country.... This is a moment for people to step up, for Republicans to step up, for business leaders to step up. Anybody who has a voice or a soapbox in this country needs to draw a line in the sand and say that it is not acceptable for the president of the United States to call on the murder of his political opposition.

With the president convinced he can bomb any boat he chooses, on his say-so alone, without any authorization from Congress to do so and without us being at war with anyone, the reminder the Democrats posted is certainly timely. With the president also convinced he can send any military troops anywhere in our own country -- again, on his say-so alone -- such a reminder is particularly apt.

For bravely standing up and doing so, and for showing the country how unhinged Trump has truly now become, all six Democrats who made the original video are easily the winners of this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week award.

[Congratulate Senator Elissa Slotkin on her Senate contact page, Senator Mark Kelly on his Senate contact page, Representative Chris Deluzio on his House contact page, Representative Maggie Goodlander on her House contact page, Representative Chrissy Houlahan on her House contact page, and Representative Jason Crow on his House contact page, to let them know you appreciate their efforts and their service to our country.]

 

The House went through a spasm of measures to rebuke their own members this week, which led to Representative Chuy Garcia getting a "vote of formal disapproval" from all Republicans and 23 Democrats this week -- in a measure instigated by Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez -- for essentially locking in his chosen successor for his seat. Garcia played it cute with the filing deadline, by waiting to announce he was not running for re-election until the day after the filing deadline closed. The only Democrat who had filed paperwork to run next year was his own chief of staff. He tried to say he had just suddenly made the decision for personal and family reasons, but this is simply not believable (Garcia's own signature was the first on the paperwork his chief of staff filed, showing he was fully aware of what he was doing).

It's this type of thing that makes voters hate politicians and politics in general, which is why we're awarding Garcia our own (Dis-)Honorable Mention award.

But this week's Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week has now been charged with something much worse. Here's the story:

Federal officials have indicted Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Florida) on allegations that she used her family’s health care company to steal from a covid-19 vaccination contract funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and then used the money to bolster her 2021 congressional campaign, the Justice Department announced Wednesday.

Cherfilus-McCormick was charged alongside multiple co-defendants, including her brother and her tax preparer.

Law enforcement officials say that in July 2021 the health care company received an overpayment of $5 million, which appeared to be the result of a clerical error. Instead of returning that money, Cherfilus-McCormick funneled some of it to friends and family, who then made donations to her campaign, according to the Justice Department. Such straw donations, as they are known, would be illegal under campaign finance laws.

She also used some of the money to self-fund her campaign, the Justice Department alleges.

Of course, as always, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law, but things don't look especially good for her. She has now stepped down from her committee assignments, but she is currently running for re-election.

So for now (contingent upon the result of her trial), we have to award her this week's Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week. Stealing money directed to COVID-19 vaccination money is a pretty shameful thing to do, after all.

[Contact Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick on her House contact page, to let her know what you think of her actions.]

 

Volume 821 (11/25/25)

We begin with a program note: there will (obviously) be no column next week. Hope everyone has a happy turkey day!

You might detect a theme running through this week's talking points [picture one hand making a big "L" while pressed against forehead, here...].

 

   Trump is losing it

This one should be condemned by all, in the strongest possible language.

"Donald Trump is losing it. He called for Democratic members of Congress to be put to death this week, for the supposed 'crime' of explaining what the law says. Remember all that Kumbaya stuff after the assassination of Charlie Kirk? Well, all that has gone right out the window, as we all knew it would. I shouldn't have to say this, but because Trump is losing it I guess I do: the president of the United States of America should never call for the death of his political opponents. Period."

 

   Trump lost 527-1

He can try to spin it all he wants, but this was a stunning loss for him.

"Donald Trump has been fighting tooth and nail against releasing all the Epstein files. His henchman Mike Johnson tried every trick in the book to prevent a vote on a bill to force Trump to do so in the House. But when Trump realized he was about to lose this vote -- badly -- he changed his tune and said he was for the bill. This fooled precisely no one. In the end, Congress voted 527-to-one against Trump. If Trump truly had been for this, he could have released these files at any point in time, but instead he fought it. And he lost -- bigly."

 

   Trump is losing his grip on the GOP

More and more Republicans are finding the backbone to say "No" to Trump, which is good to see.

"Trump is losing his grip over his own party, obviously. Rather than rolling over and doing anything he wants them to do, Republicans have shown they can occasionally stand up to Trump. They did so on the Epstein files vote, and more than one very red state has refused Trump's order to redistrict to stack the deck for next year's midterm elections. Donald Trump is a lame duck -- he's never going to run for anything ever again. But the rest of the Republicans are going to try to get re-elected, and my guess is that as time goes on more and more of them will break with Trump in an effort to save their own political careers. Trump's grip on the GOP is slipping, and it's probably only going to get weaker and weaker as time goes on."

 

   Trump is losing his grip on reality

Hammer this one home, hard.

"Every time someone brings up the fact that everything is getting more expensive, Trump shows that he's completely lost his grip on reality -- if he ever had one to begin with. He insists that prices are all way down -- when everyone can see that they're not. He tells everyone the economy is wonderful and there's no inflation, but people see it every week at the grocery store. The more Trump spirals down his delusion that everything's hunky-dory for everyone, the more people will wake up and realize that Trump has completely lost whatever grip on reality he once had."

 

   Trump has lost his built-in excuse

This one's getting old indeed....

"Trump is losing his go-to built-in excuse for why things might not be going the way he wants them to. He's been in office ten whole months now, and he's still blaming Joe Biden for anything bad anyone asks him about. His tariffs have made everything more expensive, but Trump insists that it was worse under Biden and that it's all Biden's fault. You know, this excuse has a built-in shelf-life and it's already way past its expiration date. How many more months is Trump going to attempt to blame things on Biden? Let's see... how many more months does he have left in office?"

 

   Trump is losing in court

Always worth pointing out.

"Trump is losing in court, every time you turn around. Judges have barred him from using the National Guard in two more cities -- Memphis and Washington D.C. -- and in the biggest legal loss of the week, other judges ruled that the new Texas redistricting map is probably illegal and needs to be thrown out. While the Supreme Court may be in Trump's back pocket, it's good to see other judges out there willing to draw the line on Trump's overreach."

 

   Experts agree: Trump is a pig

We would have used "male chauvinist pig" here, but we felt the phrase would tend to date us, so we just went generic instead.

"Donald Trump is a pig. Think that's disrespectful? This week, Trump wagged his finger at a female journalist asking him a question and told her: 'Quiet, Piggy.' So, quite obviously, he is due precisely zero respect himself. The rest of the world is horrified that America's president is no more than an elementary-school bully, each and every time he embarrasses himself in this way. Which is why we have to conclude that 'experts agree: Trump is a pig.' After all, if he can't bring himself to avoid using such disgraceful language, then why should anyone else restrain themselves?"

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

Cross-posted at: Democratic Underground