At the end of this week, the federal government will have been shut down for a full month. As things stand currently, few people expect anything to change before then. No viable exit ramp has appeared yet, and none is likely to do so until Donald Trump returns from his foreign trip. This will push the shutdown into November, which will dramatically increase the pressure to come to some sort of agreement, because while some money has been shuffled around to keep certain things funded (like military salaries), it's going to get substantially harder to do so in November. This means many programs are just going to completely grind to a halt, which is going to mean more and more of the public becomes directly affected by the shutdown.

Politico ran an article today which lists six of these areas where the pain is going to increase dramatically, as the funding runs out for: SNAP benefits ("food stamps"), WIC benefits (women and infants), Head Start programs (children), military pay (Trump is going to run out of ways to shuffle money around to pay them), paychecks for federal civilian employees, and the Essential Air Service that subsidizes small airports. This should be seen as only a partial list, however, because there are other programs reliant on federal spending which will also either be hampered by a lack of funds or have to shut down altogether.

Adding to the political pressure is the fact that November first will be the beginning of the Obamacare open enrollment period, and the insurance companies will be charging people premiums based on the fact that the subsidies (the main thing Democrats are fighting to retain) are going to expire at the start of next year. People's health insurance costs could double or even triple as a result of the end of the subsidies, which is why Democrats have been fighting so hard to avoid it.

Democrats got some more pressure today from a new direction, as the American Federation of Government Employees (the largest federal workers' Union) called for the shutdown to end. They came out in favor of passing a clean continuing resolution, which is essentially what the Republicans' position has been throughout the shutdown. The head of A.F.G.E. put out a statement that said, in part: "Both political parties have made their point, and still there is no clear end in sight. Today I'm making mine: it's time to pass a clean continuing resolution and end this shutdown today. No half measures, and no gamesmanship. Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay -- today."

As the calendar advances, though, the Republican position is going to have to change. The continuing resolution that the House passed and that keeps getting voted down in the Senate only runs until just before Thanksgiving. If a full budget for next year is not passed by that deadline, then another C.R. is going to be needed. Since Congress has been at a standstill in the shutdown fight, there likely won't be enough time to finalize the whole budget before Turkey Day, even if the government reopened tomorrow.

At this point, the Democrats are gambling that when public pressure increases dramatically next week (as programs are halted and money stops flowing, and also as millions of people see their health insurance premiums skyrocket), they will have the leverage to force a meeting with Donald Trump. They know full well that Trump is likely to be the key to everything, since if they can cut some sort of deal with Trump then the entire rest of the Republican Party will do whatever he tells them to do. Hammering out a deal with Trump would result (Democrats hope) in passing a C.R. that likely kicks the deadline out until next January, as well as passing a bill that restores the Obamacare subsidies, with perhaps a few new restrictions added by the Republicans. That is the path to success, as far as Democrats are concerned.

The big question is whether Trump is even interested in making such a deal, though. As the shutdown drags on and as the public is affected more and more (in a number of ways), public opinion could begin to shift against the Democrats in a big way. If that happens, then eventually the Democrats will likely have to fold and do what the Republicans want. That's the Republican path to success, as far as they are concerned.

At this point it is anyone's guess how this shutdown showdown will end. Will the Obamacare subsidies be reinstated? There is a faction of moderate Republicans who support extending the subsidies, so the chances seem at least decent that this could happen by the end of the year. Will the Republicans get what they want and force the Democrats to reopen the government before the subsidies are dealt with? Perhaps, although at this point the Democrats are going to want an iron-clad agreement with Trump that a bill reinstating the subsidies at least gets floor votes before the end of the year.

As I said, nothing much is going to take place this week -- that much seems certain. But as the calendar turns the page to November, the pressures are going to increase on everyone to figure out some way out of this mess. Some of these pressures will land on Democrats (as things like SNAP and WIC benefits halt) and some will land on Republicans (the skyrocketing premium hikes). We'll have to see whether Trump is interested in dealmaking when he returns from his trip, because at this point his intervention seems the likeliest way the impasse is going to be resolved.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant