We are now entering Week 4 of the government shutdown, with no end in sight. There aren't any compromise solutions on the table, the two sides aren't even talking to each other in any noticeable way, and Donald Trump is getting ready for a weeklong trip outside the country. This has so far been the second-longest shutdown in American history, and it certainly looks like it is on track to top the record and become the longest.

So far, neither side has been willing to budge. Trump has held one fruitless meeting with the Democratic leaders and then turned his attention to other issues. The Republicans continue to insist that they won't even negotiate until the government is reopened, and the Democrats continue to insist on striking a deal on healthcare subsidies before they will allow the government to reopen. This stalemate shows no signs of movement yet.

Senate Republicans need eight Democratic votes to pass their continuing resolution to temporarily fund the government. So far, they have three. The speaker of the House refuses to even call his chamber back into session, but that is going to have to change soon, one way or another. The continuing resolution up for debate (the one the House already passed) would only fund the government for roughly another month -- it would expire just before Thanksgiving. As the weeks tick by, it is becoming obvious that that's not going to be long enough, meaning a second continuing resolution will be necessary (either a second C.R. to push the deadline out or, more likely, a replacement C.R. that would supersede the one the House already passed).

Republicans are beginning to contemplate how far out this deadline should be pushed. They could either set the deadline just before the winter holiday break (which would amp up the pressure to pass a real budget before they all go on vacation) or they could punt it all the way to next year (which is looking more likely, at least at this point).

Notably, there is no bipartisan "gang" of senators working on a solution, at least not formally. Behind the scenes, some discussions are taking place, but without any notable progress. Several ideas have been floated by the Republicans, some of which could actually be acceptable enough for Democrats to support them, but nobody's publicly stated their support for any of it.

Democrats want the Obamacare subsidies extended. If they don't get their way, people on the Obamacare exchanges are going to see massive price hikes starting in the new year. One estimate has annual premiums for the average Obamacare marketplace consumer rising from $888 to a whopping $1,904. That is more than doubling, as you can plainly see. And that's just an average -- some families will wind up paying a whole lot more than that:

For example, a family of four earning $82,000 a year in Georgia could see their annual premium double to around $7,000 for a plan with midrange coverage, according to a [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities] analysis. If that family earned at least $130,000, they would have to pay the full cost of the annual premium, about $24,000 instead of $11,000.

It's a similar story in other states, where people in higher income tiers will see especially big premium increases as they become ineligible for subsidies. A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 may have to pay $31,000 for a plan in Kentucky, $28,000 for a plan in Oregon and $44,000 for a plan in Vermont, according to CBPP.

These numbers will all be set on the first of November, as insurance companies publish their premium prices. This could give Democrats a political boost, as the reality of the situation strikes home for millions of American families. The public may only have a vague sense of what the Democrats are fighting for at the moment, but when they're faced with such a monstrous price hike, it's going to be a real wakeup call for many.

Democrats want to extend the subsidies permanently. They want it written into the budget once and for all, so that we don't have to go through this political showdown every few years. But the Republicans who do actually realize that such price hikes might be damaging to their political party (heading into a midterm election year) aren't willing to go that far. Some Republicans are proposing just extending the subsidies for one year -- which would conveniently punt all the price hikes until just after the midterm elections. Some are willing to consider a two-year extension, but that's about as far as they're reportedly willing to go.

These vague rumors of Republican willingness come with caveats, though. Republicans are reportedly considering offering up a few changes to the program, some of which might be acceptable to Democrats and some of which are not. The acceptable ones include adjusting the income ceiling for the subsidies so that people who make more money wouldn't be eligible. This could probably gain Democratic support (one proposal would cap income at $200,000, which isn't too drastic a limit). There is a push from some Republicans to force everyone getting subsidies to "have some skin in the game" by making those who are currently fully subsidized pay a nominal amount every month. These Republicans are convinced there is massive fraud going on where millions of people are signed up for plans without even knowing about it, allowing the insurance companies to essentially just pocket the subsidies. Forcing a small payment per month would guarantee that everyone is fully aware that they are signed up for health insurance, thus solving the problem (that's the way the Republican thinking goes, at any rate). But for Democrats to accept this, the minimum required payment is going to have to be very low -- on the order of five dollars a month or less -- because the people who are currently fully subsidized are the ones who make the least amount of money. So they just don't have any discretionary income lying around. If the minimum "skin in the game" number is too high, these people will just drop health insurance coverage altogether.

Then there are some proposals that likely wouldn't get any Democratic support. One plan would grandfather in people who have already gotten subsidies while not offering them to new people signing up for Obamacare plans. This would create a two-tiered system, depending on when you had initially bought in. But with the shakiness of the economy (especially the job market), that would leave a whole lot of people out in the cold, which is why Democrats would likely balk at it. There are other proposals that are more partisan (dealing with subjects like abortion) that would also likely be seen as non-starters for Democrats.

You can see, from all this, that a deal might actually be possible, one that incorporates at least a few Republican ideas (to allow them to save face politically), but not the worst poison pills of the bunch. Such a deal may require Trump to agree to it before any of his fellow Republicans feel safe supporting it as well. But so far, negotiating over these details isn't even really happening yet. Both sides currently see their own position as being politically beneficial to them. This dynamic is going to have to change before any movement towards a deal even begins to happen.

Democrats, so far, have done a decent job of staking out and defending their position in the media. But, as always, it is tough to break through the firehose of distractions from Donald Trump. Here is a sampling of what Democrats are currently saying:

"There is enough money to bail out Argentina with $20 billion. There is enough money to purchase a brand new aircraft for $173 million for the Homeland Security Secretary. There is enough money to renovate the White House ballroom," [Senator Brian] Schatz added. "What there is not enough money for under this Republican government is you. There is not enough money for you."

. . .

"President Trump seems to think it's more important to offer $20 billion to bail out Argentina than it is to make a bipartisan deal to prevent health insurance premiums from spiking for over 20 million Americans in a matter of days," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said last week.

Those are pretty good political arguments, you've got to admit. But how much of this is breaking through to the average member of the public? To date, the answer is probably "not too much," but with the premium hikes being posted at the start of next month, it might become a lot more personal to millions. And as the weeks go by, the urgency to fix the problem is only going to increase. So while there is no deal in sight as of now, the political dynamic might be about to shift. The combination of premium sticker shock and the looming end of the calendar year could be the only things that spur the politicians to negotiate and arrive at some deal -- but we don't quite seem to be there yet.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant