So the shutdown has now begun. The blame game is being played by both sides. The news will be full of which government services have been halted, and which are still running (by employees who are not getting paid). And nobody knows when it is going to end, as both sides seem fairly dug in, at this point.

The Democrats' case is pretty easy to make: they are fighting to prevent people's health insurance premiums from skyrocketing on the first of January. And Republicans won't even talk to them.

The Republicans' case seems to be hinged on a huge misdirection: Democrats are fighting for taxpayer dollars to be used on free healthcare for illegal immigrants. This is actually not true, or at the very least you have to do several mental backflips to even understand what they are talking about. The other GOP case is that they offered up a clean budget resolution, which is what Democrats usually are for, so why are they being so obstructionist on this one?

So far, Democrats are standing pretty firm. Three of their caucus in the Senate (John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Independent Angus King) voted with the Republicans yesterday, but due to Republican Rand Paul voting against the GOP's bill (on principle, he never votes for continuing resolutions) the Republicans will need eight Democrats to break ranks to pass their bill. Since three of them already have, five more are now needed.

The only thing Republicans have offered, at this point, is that "there is plenty of time before January, we can deal with the Obamacare subsidies in a separate bill, later." Democrats, quite rightly, do not trust this vague and nebulous promise. They want something a lot more concrete than that and a lot more immediate.

Behind the scenes, a wisp of a possible deal seems to be wafting through the air. There is a faction of Republicans who also want to continue the Obamacare subsidies, since they are aware that a lot of their constituents will be facing hikes in their insurance bills of 75 percent or more (one health foundation even estimated that the costs would "more than double"). And they're also aware that the blame for this will be entirely laid at their feet if nothing happens and the hikes take place.

So Republicans are floating a short-term extension (of one or possibly a few years), while Democrats are trying to make the new subsidy levels permanent. Republicans have also made a suggestion that some Democrats would be willing to accept -- restricting families who get the subsidies to those making $250,000 a year or less. That seems pretty reasonable, and some Democrats have cautiously expressed interest in this idea.

So a framework for an exit ramp to the shutdown doesn't completely exist, but at least there seem to be some ideas floating around for a possible one -- which is better than things stood a few days ago.

Democrats have also made a demand to repeal all the Medicaid cuts Republicans passed in their big ugly budget bill, but I've personally always thought that this one's going to be a bridge too far for this particular political moment (since the cuts are not nearly as immediate as the subsidies problem). But there will be other opportunities for Democrats to argue for this -- this might not be the only government shutdown this year. What they're arguing about now, after all, is merely a bill which punts the ball for seven weeks -- it is not a full yearly budget (which is theoretically supposed to be in place by today). There will be other opportunities for budget negotiations, in other words.

Donald Trump, true to form, is not exactly being helpful. His strategy is to make the shutdown as painful as possible, to pressure the Democrats to relent. He has threatened to fire thousands of government workers and has already halted government funding for projects in states run by Democrats. He wants to maximize the pain, plain and simple. The New York Times editorial board summed up Trump's position rather well:

In effect, [Donald] Trump's position is that Democrats must either support his plans to slash important public services, or else he will slash important public services. He is confronting Congress, and the American people, with a pair of bad options -- and no alternatives.

In refusing to grant Mr. Trump's wishes, Democrats are making a painful choice. There is never a good time to shut down the government. It will cause immediate pain as federal agencies suspend important functions. Not everything broken during a shutdown can easily be fixed once the government returns to work.

But debate over the tactical wisdom of the Democrats' decision should not obscure the responsibility of Mr. Trump and the Republican Party. Mr. Trump is threatening to hurt Americans in two ways and forcing Democrats to choose which one to prevent. The American people deserve and ought to demand better options.

Democrats have achieved one thing already in this struggle: relevance. They are getting some attention from the news media once again. Their case is being made in the public square. Republicans are on the losing side of the battle over Obamacare subsidies, and some of them even know it. Passing an extension of the subsidies would actually help the Republican Party as a whole, heading into next year's midterm campaign season, because it would remove a potent issue from the table for Democrats. Which is why the possibility of a compromise exists -- because it would be beneficial to both parties, in the end.

Democrats aren't just relevant again in Washington, they are also showing some fight -- which is the real reason behind this shutdown. The Democratic base was incensed when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer provided the votes for a continuing resolution way back in the spring, so this time he knew he had to put up a fight. Democratic voters have gotten incredibly dispirited and demoralized at watching the firehose of meanness and cruelty issuing forth from the Oval Office on a daily basis, and they are desperate to see Democrats do something to protest it all -- or even just one piece of it. That is happening now, and my guess is it will help Democrats to rebuild their political brand (at least a little bit) with the public.

I have no real idea how this will all play out, or how long it will all take. It's impossible to tell, at such an early stage. Will the Democrats get some sort of legislative language (at the very least) in a bill restoring the Obamacare subsidies, and get a firm commitment from the Republican leaders to bring such a bill up for a floor vote? That would be the best outcome for Democrat (and the American people), obviously. Or will they eventually have to fold without getting anything in return -- after the shutdown drags on so long that it becomes politically impossible to maintain? That's a possibility too.

But even the worst-case scenario of not getting anything may help Democrats with their base. The idea that "fighting and losing is a lot better than not fighting at all" may be enough, in other words.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant